Bo Hamburger
Years ago

NBL finals thread: Game 1 tonight (apparently)

I just found out that the NBL season is still going - it feels like a long, LONG time ago that Adelaide played its last game.
(Friday, Feb 9 v Cairns - I looked it up)

What are forumgoers' thoughts on the finals, which begin tonight?

- Is it realistic to think that Melbourne could win 3 out of 5 games against Brisbane?

- Will Brisbane sweep?

- Is a 5-games series too short? (I say yes. Let's make it completely ridiculous, and have a 7 or 9 game series - just because we can.)

I'm hoping for a Melbourne win tonight, because it would spice up the series dramatically. I'm not convinced it will happen though: Bullets by 7 (with Boucher to start at least one fight).

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Jasmine  
Years ago

I think the Tigers can will this series. All season I have been hearing how out of this world Brisbane are and how inconsistent and disinterested the Tigers seem compared to last season. However despite this the defending champs only finished 3 games behind the Bullets. I don't believe the Bullets are totally in a class of their own. I think the Tigers are right with them.

Will be an interesting series.

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DB5  
Years ago

Melbourne 3-1..Joey to be shown up that he is not a good coach, just a good motivator.
Westover will give him a coaching lesson, D Mac will show his class and Anstey will win Finals MVP and most 3's attempted in a series.

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Isaac  
Years ago

Give me some help here people.

At the start of the season, I got on the Tigers at $5 to win the championship. Now, I suspect that the Bullets will win. They're about $1.55 to win it.

So, what should I do? Just hold the bet and hope the Tigers win?

Or put just enough on the Bullets to cover my initial investment so that I can't really lose?

Your thoughts?

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cLaRkY  
Years ago

Put your money on the Tigers.

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Isaac  
Years ago

Or, wait and see where things are at after two games?

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Statman  
Years ago

get some coin on the Bullets Isaac!

i think it will be 3 - 1 to the Bullets with Melb winning game 3 up here.

For the Tigers to win Anstey will have to hit a high percentage of his 3 point attenmpts and while that may happen in one game the Bullets wont allow it to happen too much. I agree that Westover will show he is the better coach but Joeys team dont really need coaching at the moment - they are playing at their best and ready to take the trophy

As for Boucher starting fights - I think Mick Hill will be right there with him!

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Sween  
Years ago

Predict Bullets 3-1. Issac's bet rests with a less than fit Sammy Mac. If you can arrange that .... let's not go there.

I hope:
The Tigers win the first as this automatically will bring introduce the Bullets history of developing "Colliwobbles" and

that Adam Gibson keeps playing blinders cause he shares my Tasmanian heritage, is a good kid from a good hard working family and has been previously written down as lucky to have a spot on the team by people who obviously haven't done their research properly.

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Qlder  
Years ago

Bullets will choke,Melb 3 - 1.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Isaac, did you put the ferrari on the Tigers when they were $5?

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Isaac  
Years ago

Only the spare one that doesn't get driven as often.

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DrB  
Years ago

Tigers clean sweep! 3 -0. The bullets will choke. Then coach of the Joey Wright will be shown the door!

I however do not care who wins they dont deserve it by there cheating of the salary cap and points. In the end of the day the winning team is the CHEQUE BOOK!

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anon  
Years ago

tigers will win 3-1

save your cash Isaac..5/1 against a Ferarri, looks like your going to need more parking spots

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Tigers to win in 4, possibly sweep! The Bullets looked less than invincible against a less than threatening Kings side and Melbourne have been gaining momentum quietly in some regards for a couple of months.
The Tigers are HUGE in every position, probably have a more talented bench (Corletto, Crosswell, Stiffy, Dench versus Bradkte, Gibson, Hill, Boucher and Williamson).
The Bullets key is their swarming full court defence which you would think a D-Mac led backcourt should be able to contend with.
But look at the matchups; Black on Thomas or Tucker?? And who the hell is Dusty gonna guard???

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Neptuneboy  
Years ago

"The Tigers are HUGE in every position"

My GF says im HUGE in every position too!

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booga  
Years ago

yeh she said the same to me aswell go figure

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jimmy de bas  
Years ago

Melbourne by 10 tonight, and will sweep the series.

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Neptuneboy  
Years ago

Dont i tell you that as well booga?

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Bo Hamburger  
Years ago

Isaac,

A two-match waiting game could be fatal, IMO. Here are the scenarios:

- Brisbane win the first two: $1.55 shrinks, and you can't make enough to recoup the initial $5 Tigers bet.

- Melbourne win the first two: proceed to nearest Ferrari dealer.

- The 1-1 split depends on who wins each game: if Brisbane win Game 1 but lose Game 2, they'll drift out beyond $1.55 (even though they'd come in from that after Game 1). If Brisbane lose Game 1, but win Game 2, they could well be under $1.55.

After all that analysis, I think your best bet is the $1.01 on the guy responsible for this having way too much time on his hands.

(For those about to click: he's catalogued every single car that's ever appeared in a Tintin comic - plus, in most cases, added photographs of their real-life equivalents.)

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Fiji  
Years ago

Bo's pretty much on the money Isaac.

Making money from investments (as opposed to speculation), is about diversification. So if you class this as an investment then back Brissy NOW.

But the really important piece of info you havn't given us, is how much you outlayed and whether or not you can actually afford to loose what you bet originally.

My guess is you are a sensible bloke with good business acumen, so that means you would only bet within your means.

Therefore the only real question now is do you still have faith in your original decision (and therefore stand to collect some meaningful money)or are you in fact soft, and therefore now look to "hedge your bets".

Not that my opinion counts its your call....but I think Brissy win in 4.

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Isaac  
Years ago

The outlay isn't really of any significance so I asked mostly out of curiosity. I'm going to wait and see how tonight's game goes. If the Bullets win narrowly, I don't think their odds will change too dramatically.

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booga  
Years ago

neptune i'm single lol

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thomo  
Years ago

tigers choke

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billo  
Years ago

Right, I've just done a few sums, here's my thinking. Hypothetically let's say the first bet was for £10.

Scenario 1 - No further bets places:
Tigers win - £50 in the pocket, £40 profit
Bullets win - £0 in the pocket, £10 loss (initial bet)

Scenario 2 - Bet £38 on Bullets at 1.55
Tigers win - £50 in the pocket, net gain £2 (50 minus 10 minus 38)
Bullets win - £58.9 in the pocket, net gain £10.90

Scenario 3 - Bet £50 on Bullets
Tigers win - £50 in the pocket, net loss £10 (inital bet)
Bullets Win - £77.50 in the pocket, net gain £17.50


IMO scenario 2 is boring, you can't lose but you also can't win much either. Scenario 1 is good if you think the Tigers have a decent shot at it. If you're convinced the Bullets are the goods then I'd recommend scenario 3 as you're effectingly getting £2.75 on your initial bet. It all boils down to whether you rather take £5 on a Tigers win or £2.75 on a Bullets win.

Of course all these figures are now null and void after game 1.

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Isaac  
Years ago

With the series tied 1-1, Brisbane have edged to $1.60. Tigers are $2.30.

Reckon I might hold on for a few more days and see if the Tigers can win in Brisbane.

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