jimmy de bas
Years ago
Funny ABL Round 1 / Season Predictions (Men)
Forget March Madness. Forget the Cricket World Cup. Forget Monday's Division 3 top of the table clash between Southern and Norwood. It is time for the world to turn its attention to this years Central ABL.
With the signings of Dusty Rychart at North, Kane Oakley at Forestville, Blake Truslove at West and the re-signing of Cooper at the Flames, this years edition promises to be a battle of the big men, making for some very interesting, and some very lopsided, contests on the boards.
Two years ago I created a similar thread to this, where I ridiculed Woodville and basically said that they were a lock for the wooden spoon. Five months later they were state league champions and my reputation was shot to pieces. My only hope for this year's preview is that I don't make the same mistake again. So here I go.
SOUTH @ CENTRAL
Didn't take me long, but I have already found my prediction for this year's spoon, and I think I may have it spot on this time. Centrals go into this season having lost their four best players from last years team (Watson, Wilkey, Vandenburgh and Clausen) and not really adding anything else. Taking a look at their side, I find it hard to imagine them winning against anyone this year, let alone this week against a side littered with guards.
If South manage to field their full side, then Kosmider, Scanlon, Smith, McKenzie, Hudson, Davies and new import Ken Carter make for a pretty daunting backcourt, and quite frankly, I don't think the likes of Graves, Atkins and Cameron will be able to topple South's depth. Graves is a good player but will he be able to be the star player that Centrals need? I don't think so. Unless Vandenburgh, Pennington and Ricky Simpson all decide to crawl out of retirement in the next 24 hours, I predict that the South backcourt will run Centrals ragged all night long up at Starplex.
Both these teams lack any real height, but with Reeves sitting out for the Lions, Pilkington, Williams, Machar (back yet?) and Fuller should have their way with the likes of Hammond, Clayton and the Centrals youngsters. South have the depth, the experience and the talent to turn this into a very one sided affair and I expect them to do just that.
When it comes to the rest of the year, I fear that South's lack of dominant big men will be their downfall, this year more than ever before. If Machar can improve this year then he should be able to put up some pretty decent numbers, but he is simply not in the same class as Cooper, Rychart etc. The key to South's finals hopes will hinge on whether Scanlon can get his hibachi on when it comes to playing against the other finals aspirants like West and Southern. But this weekend, Scanlon could shoot 0 for 30 and the Panthers would still win. South by 30.
MINOR ROUND PREDICTION:
CENTRALS 10th
SOUTH 7th
WEST @ NORTH
With the return of Truslove and Brendan Mann to Port Adelaide, West fans have good reason to be excited about the upcoming season, but not nearly as much reason as Rockets fans. Names such as Rychart, Hambour, Kersten, Burdon and Zorich looks more like an NBL lineup rather than a state league team, and it is this talent that has everyone talking about North being unbeatable this year.
With Burdon Jr., Quigley, Rowe and Groves to boot, rookie coach Justin Schueller won't be short of options when it comes to his bench, not that he will be needing them to do much anyway. Even when North play a bad game this year, they will still be hard to beat, and it is going to take a mighty performance to knock them off.
However, West have a few weapons of their own this season, and players such as Craddock, Phillips, Truslove, Molitor and Mann all know how to fill up the basket. If Craddock and Phillips especially get going, I wouldn't rule out West Adelaide making a game of it at Hillcrest. Rychart is clearly the superstar in this clash, and in this league, but Truslove has the experience, strength and the smarts to ensure that Rychart and Hambour don't get it their way all night long. The showdown in the paint between Rychart/Slambour and Truslove/Davis/Crothers is worth the price of admission on its own. Throw in the backcourt speed battle between the likes of Kersten, Zorich and Craddock, Mann and Spadavecchia and you have yourself a bargain.
I think that West will rely heavily on Phillips and Craddock to score a majority of their points this season, and for this reason I think they will have an inconsistent year. Craddock has the potential to be a superstar in this league, but isn't experienced enough just yet to be able to go for 25+ every game. Phillips relies heavily on his outside shot, so when he faces some of the better defenders in the league, he will struggle to get his share of shots up. If these two are feeling it on Saturday though, I think the Bearcats could look the winner at some stage.
If North are going to lose this season, it is going to be early when Rychart and Kersten are still getting a feel for the team and when Schueller is still fresh in the league. I think North should escape this one in the end though, and get up by about 15.
NORTH 1st
WEST 6th
STURT @ NORWOOD
After narrowly bowing out in the preliminary final last year against the eventual champion, Norwood have been spruiked as major championship contenders this year, and they get no better chance to prove themselves than this week against last season's runner-up.
Adding Dan Thompson to an already impressive looking lineup gives Norwood a more complete look this season, with plenty of size (Cooper, Krause) to go with their quality backcourt duo of Todd Matthew and Andrew Webber. Matthew showed in last year's final series that he has got some serious game, and with a better preparation for this season, you'd expect to see more of what we witnessed in the finals. Lampshire, Foster and Ottey will provide plenty of spark off the bench for the Flames, and Norwood are going to need every bit of this spark on the defensive end to stop one Darren Ng.
Reigning Woollacott Medallist Ng is coming off a stellar season with the 36ers, and will cause nightmares for whoever dares to defend him this season. Looking at Norwood's lineup, I don't think there is anyone capable of stopping Ng for the full 48 minutes tomorrow night. All he needs to turn a game on its head is a couple of minutes, and if the Flames allow him to get on a roll, they can put round 1 in the loss column.
Having lost teammates Forman, Smylie and Shepherd in the off-season, Ng is going to have the ball in his hands every time down the court, and that is when he is at his most lethal. If Ng is on his game this Saturday and leads the Norwood smalls a merry dance, then the Norwood big men will have to stamp their authority even more so in the paint. With an established playmaker in Matthew running the point, Thompson, Cooper and even Krause on the perimeter are going to get their fair share of looks all night, and will have to be hitting their shots to keep up with the scoring machine down the other end. Norwood should have the advantage on the boards, and this could be the difference in such an even game. Cooper is a rebounding machine when it comes to the ABL, and young Dodman will have to work his butt off for every rebound he gets.
Sturt's only hope of contending for the title this year is if Ng averages 40 a game on his way to another Woollacott Medal, but with the amount of defensive attention he will be getting, it could be difficult. But like I said, I don't think Norwood have any superstar defenders, so I think that Ng will put on a show for the Norwood home crowd on his way to 50 points, leading the Sabres to an 8 point victory in the game of the round.
NORWOOD 3rd
STURT 4th
WOODVILLE @ SOUTHERN
It was this exact same round 1 matchup two years ago where I gave Woodville no hope and predicted they would have a long year on their way to the wooden spoon. This year, I don't think they will collect the spoon, but I do think that they will struggle this weekend against a superior Southern side.
I think the Warriors are going to miss the presence of Andrew Puddifoot more than they realise, and with the young Zane Reeves also heading to the Lions, the Woodville big man department is looking alarmingly empty. Paul Rees is a champion, but he is a year older and isn't coming into the ABL season with an NBL campaign under his belt. Their next best big by my estimate would be Nathan Baggott, and I think this says a lot about the state of the team. With a below-average presence in the paint, it means that Cameron Wilson is going to have to shoulder even more of the load this season, and it is hard to see him improving on his performances over the last couple of years since the departure of Ng.
With Clarke and Gerlach for the Tigers both coming into the season injury free this year, with Goodenough setlled at his new club and Braithwaite wanting to go on with his breakout 2006 season, the underrated Tigers backcourt look like they should be able to handle Wilson, Birmingham and Mapunda.
Dan Lalic is currently one of the most exciting prospects in the ABL, and has a chance to really stamp himself as one of the premier big men if he can beat Rees at the Cage tomorrow night. The young and agile body of Lalic should be too strong and fast for the aging Rees, and with help from new signing Ryan Franceschinis and the ever-reliable Ben Hodges, the Tigers look to have the edge in the frontcourt.
The Tigers have good reason to be optimistic about 2007. If the club can get 18 injury-free games out of Gerlach and if Lalic lives up to his billing, then they could be the surprise packet of the league. With Dave Bowley and Tim Hodges expected to return to the lineup over the next few weeks, Southern will most likely lead the race for the last one or two finals spots.
In regards to this week, Southern look to be too deep and too complete for the Warriors, and I think they will win by about 10.
SOUTHERN 5th
WOODVILLE 8th
EASTERN @ FORESTVILLE
Covering for the loss of Jason Dix is going to be Forestville's main problem this year, and covering for the loss of the league's most dominant player in the last 15 years is an almighty task. The one season that Dix missed through injury was the one season that I can remember where the Eagles didn't make the finals, and that was WITH Pero and Rees trying to fill the void. They have also lost Brenton Campbell and Matt Gange in the off-season, so the new look Eagles lineup will have their work cut out this season.
Kane Oakley is the man they have chosen to try and replace Dix, but with Oakley recently being released by the Cairns Taipans, it is hard to imagine that he will put up Dix-like numbers. Forestville haven't recruited anyone to try and replace Gange and Campbell, but they have some very good youngsters who look capable of providing some hustle off the bench. Sullivan and Sutton will obviously start for the Eagles, but Trent Fildes and Harri Harvey are both ultra-impressive juniors who Coach Simons will be looking to to make an impact this season.
The Eagles will have a solid hitout in round 1 against a Mavericks side that will be looking at Brad Bungey to become its main cannon following the departure of Brad Davis from its ABL program, and the injury to Brad Hill. Eastern still look like they can cause some damage this year, having 'recruited' Shane Boal from the Tigers, Shane Breheny from Sturt and Jye Watson from Centrals. I think this weeks game between the two sides will be a fiery contest, with noted hotheads Scott Arnold, Peter Hoban, Doug McDonald-Taylor Nic Campbell and Brad Bungey all on court at once. Forestville's guards should be too good for the Mavericks on their home floor& with Sutton fresh off his first NBL season, his confidence will be sky high and he should give Ng a good contest for the Woollacott this year. With Brenton Campbell out of the picture, Sullivan will get a lot more shots from outside this season, and with the attention that Oakley and Sutton will be receiving tomorrow, Sullivan is set for a big game.
Forestville look like they will be the biggest threat to North Adelaide's championship this season, while I think that with some of the attitudes Eastern have put together, the team camaraderie will implode within weeks, and it will take its toll on their win-loss record. Forestville by 20 this week though.
FORESTVILLE 2nd
EASTERN 9th
Well that took FAR longer than I thought it would, and I hope I did a good job& but these are just my thoughts. How do you guys think the season will pan out? I don't really know enough about the girls comp to do a write up, so someone who knows more than me can give that one a go.
