Isaac
Years ago

Kings foul count bias at home

Was checking past stats out of curiosity after a couple of lop-sided foul counts this last NBL round and noticed that the Kings get a very favourable count at home as opposed to on the road. If anyone else had the time, they could check to see if the same was true of other teams?

Key: Kings PF - Opponents PF (Free Throw Attempts by Kings); games listed in reverse chronological order; home games first, then road games.

vs Breakers, 21-37 (51 FTA)
vs Hawks, 22-31 (45)
vs Wildcats, 19-21 (26)
vs Razorbacks, 23-29 (32)
vs Bullets, 17-32 (35)
vs Crocodiles, 20-25 (28)
vs 36ers, 22-23 (25)
vs Taipans, 18-22 (23)
vs Blaze, 21-26 (28)

Home: 183-246 (42.7% - 57.3%)

Kings on the road:

@ 36ers, 24-28 (39)
@ Breakers, 24-24 (31)
@ Tigers, 23-28 (38)
@ Taipans, 27-23 (23)
@ Tigers, 25-25 (30)
@ Slingers, 20-22 (28)
@ Razorbacks, 23-19 (10)
@ Bullets, 25-26 (26)
@ Dragons, 26-25 (27)
@ Crocodiles, 23-26 (29)

Away: 240-250 (49.0% - 51.0%)

Topic #14071 | Report this topic


rotate on this  
Years ago

Both the foul differential and free throws attempted by the kings are mindblowing , especially considering their physical some would say rough house style of play .

Clearly still trying everything to capture the sydney market LMAO , it ain't gonna happen .


Reply #164690 | Report this post


Ostrich 63  
Years ago

Rigged, imo.

Reply #164692 | Report this post


HO  
Years ago

Isaac - I realise its easy for every in SA to hate the Kings, but what about the analysis for the other teams in the competition? Is it possible everyone gets that sort of treatment home and away? Is there at least a differential home and away for everyone? I'd be interested in seeing the breakers numbers in particular - they would have referees who know their players and style with possibly the most familiarity.

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Who Me?  
Years ago

for HO & Isaac, I decided to look at 2nd on the Ladder Melbourne Tigers, who also play in a Big Market City, have a franchise name player in Chris Anstey.

Well their figures are much different to the Kings, as such:

vs Hawks 22-20 (19 FTA's)
vs Dragons 20-16 (9 FTA's)
vs Breakers 25-24 (17 FTA's)
vs Crocodiles 20-27 (22 FTA's)
vs Kings 25-25 (34 FTA's)
vs Perth 17-27 (31 FTA's)
vs 36ers 26-15 (13 FTA's)
vs Taipans 21-10 (15 FTA's)

Home - 176-164 (51.8% - 48.2%) 20 FTA's per game

@ Slingers 26-20 (20 FTA's)
@ 36ers 25-20 (21 FTA's)
@ Blaze 23-26 (20 FTA's)
@ Taipans 20-22 (21 FTA's)
@ Slingers 18-23 (29 FTA's)
@ Crocodiles 21-24 (29 FTA's)
@ Wildcats 25-20 (17 FTA's)
@ Kings 28-23 (23 FTA's)
@ Dragons 19-21 (31 FTA's)
@ Bullets 31-28 (29 FTA's)
@ Wildcats 14-23 (21 FTA's)

Away - 250-250 (50.0% - 50.0%) 23.7 FTA's per game.

So basically, Melbourne end up with slightly more FTA's and less fouls when playing away than home, but not much in it.

Such a good conspiracy theory, that with more time I might even look at some other teams too!!!

Reply #164702 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

HO, certainly possible, which is why I suggested that people pitch in and do the numbers for other teams.

I went to NBLstats.com, got the Kings schedule up, opened the relevant box scores and started counting. Wonder if the guy who runs the site could be persuaded to automate the output of the data if enough people cared?

Reply #164705 | Report this post


Spinner  
Years ago

I don't think the NBL would allow that Isaac........ the old saying is "if you don't like the answer, then don't ask the question"!!!

All of Gorg's teams have been aggressive in defence - that's the style of play he pushes. I guess in the end, his teams will do what ever they can get away with plus 20% because they are protected species!!

Reply #164707 | Report this post


Who Me?  
Years ago

Ho, that's where I got my Tigers numbers from. Also, just finished the Breakers numbers (slow day at work today!).

Anyway, the summary numbers for the Breakers are: -

Home - 274/256 (51.7% - 48.3%) 297 FTA's from 11 games at 27 per game.

Away - 217/177 (55.1% - 44.9%) 191 FTA's from 8 games at 23.9 per game.

So, Breakers do get a slightly better deal at home only getting called for 51.7% of all fouls whereas that goes up to 55.1% away. FTA's goes down from 29 to 23.9 when away from home as well.

Still nowhere near as big a differential as with the Kings.

Reply #164711 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

Doesn't really correlate with their position as one of the least fouling teams in the league though.

Reply #164712 | Report this post


HO  
Years ago

thanks WhoMe?!

Reply #164715 | Report this post


DDFan  
Years ago

Isaac, you're a trouble maker. ; )
I'd hate to think what uproar this thread'd cause on OzHoops (OzSooks).
Speaking of OzHoops, I thought it quite incredible that our refs were called out as totally inept (which they are), or cheats (in our home game against the Kings), by an umpiring authority Kings fan. No denying their crapola, but calling them cheats was below the belt. Not bad when they won anyway, & have only lost 2 games for the season.
Back on topic, FTAs can be misleading though. What with the final minutes foul-a-thons that we have to endure (which I detest), skewing the stats.

Reply #164718 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

Foul-a-thons and the like would be mostly ignored with a broader statistical set (e.g., season to date).

My post of that information on OzHoops has had just one predictable response from Stumps.

Reply #164723 | Report this post


Robbo  
Years ago

Anyone who watched the Kings-Breakers game on Fox saturday would not be surprised in the least by Isaac's statistics.

Reply #164725 | Report this post


DDFan  
Years ago

Pheeeeeeeeeeeew, I thought you were living dangerously, if you'd started a thread like that on OzHoops. Just checked. What a relief.
I take it you got tackled on the Kings v Breakers thread?

Reply #164726 | Report this post


Ingles13  
Years ago

IMO breakers got a very harsh deal vs the kings last saturday... I was suprised they still kept in the game despite the refs protecting the kings the whole game.

Reply #164732 | Report this post


rotate on this  
Years ago

I think in the most part it is due to the NBL wanting ( never admittedly ) the home team to win to enhance crowd numbers , however slightly .

This could be even more relevant to the NBL's endless obsession with building the support and market of the KINGS .

I know this smells of conspiracy but the whole world is full of them .

Look at the AFL for example when they were desperate for the Queensland market and allowed the Lions an extra $ 600K-$700K a year to resign players and then remedied that after 3 premierships and constant whinging by Big Ed .

Sydney had a similar exception over the last few years and a very healthy free kick +- in their GF years . Whilst living expenses in NSW may warrant some consideration their are other benefits for footballers to live in Sydney .

Interesting after this has happened that the push for a Gold Coast team and then a move to the Western Suburbs in NSW is probably more feasible .

Now the Victorian Clubs will be getting the love for a few years as you could sense the Big D creaming his fat pants over the Geelong premiership .

I am not saying the AFL blatantly cheat or influence , just subtle things for a profitable Business ( game ) .

Bigger crowds , Share the Wealth , bigger TV market , fatter TV deals , bigger bonuses .

Don't get me started on what Demetriou has done to the actual game of football as it may make me end sounding like a Disgruntled DDfan .

Reply #164735 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

I think that it would be more likely to be Kings players more shrewdly bending the rules (e.g., flopping?) or Goorjian pressuring the refs.

Hard to know how they missed an eleven second backcourt violation though.

Reply #164737 | Report this post


Statman  
Years ago

In regards to the 11 second violation.....if that was up here Brendan Joyce would have actually exploded before it even got to 10 seconds!

Reply #164743 | Report this post


rotate on this  
Years ago

Relevant points Isaac .

I guess i am coming from a different angle and stand by my belief that there agendas at work in many sports .
In the NBA for example i think the league were licking their lips at having D Wade as the new poster boy and anyone who is not a Heat fan know the Mavs got screwed . Maybe it was as much a dislike for Mark Cuban , who knows , either way same result .

If you can rig 2 US presidential elections then you can rig a bball game .

Reply #164746 | Report this post


EC  
Years ago

DDFan, why is Isaac a troublemaker? The type of stats that he mentioned are legitimate and not fabricated just to stir up trouble.

Isaac, would be interesting to report these stats to the NBL just to see if they would act on it. I wouldn't expect anything to be made public about it as it would weaken the authority the refs have on court, but I would expect it to be brought to the attention of the auditors to act on it as an internal enquiry. These figures warrant investigation. Regardless of the stats for any other team, when a team is not only on top of the ladder like the Kings but are way ahead of their nearest competitor, then its normal to scrutinize the facts and figures. No love/hate arguments here.

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DDFan  
Years ago

EC, it's an OzHoops thing, that any mention of Kings favouritsm brings the house down. Oh the BIAS!11!.
Isaac would understand, hence the winky.

Reply #164756 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

the analysis is not relavent IMO , what about the crucial home team calls sixers have got over the last decade down the stretch, its a well known fact that you will rarely win close game in adelaide.

Its high time sixers fans got over bitching about the Kings and look at why they are sucessful, they train hard, they play hard, they are well coached, and OMG they recruit and develop young Aussies

just perhaps sixers can learn from that !!

Reply #164760 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

That's beside the point and I agree with your comments about them playing hard and recruiting well. Everyone is free to discuss or interpret the stats as they see fit.

However, they stand as presented and may warrant more of a look into foul counts for other clubs at home and on the road.

Reply #164761 | Report this post


EC  
Years ago

Anon #164760, you forget to mention one other fact about the success of the Kings, salary cap?

Reply #164763 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

Adelaide count listed first.

Home: 238-258 (48.0% - 52.0%), 23.8 FPG - 25.8 FPG

vs Slingers, 21-20
vs Kings, 28-24
vs Razorbacks, 24-30
vs Crocodiles, 21-26
vs Dragons, 27-26
vs Breakers, 26-32
vs Blaze, 25-21
vs Dragons, 19-27
vs Tigers, 24-25
vs Hawks, 23-27

Road: 204-215 (48.7% - 51.3%), 22.7 FPG - 23.9 FPG

@ Dragons, 23-23
@ Razorbacks, 15-19
@ Tigers, 15-26
@ Blaze, 32-24
@ Slingers, 26-29
@ Kings, 23-22
@ Crocodiles, 26-28
@ Breakers, 27-23
@ Wildcats, 17-21

I think we do get a few home-town calls in Adelaide, but the stats this year suggest there's very little variation for the 36ers whether they're at home or on the road.

Thought it was interesting that we had a low foul count averaged across the three games played without Chappell before Hodge made his debut. Chappell averaged a team-high 3.9 PF per game which was more notable given his MPG (29.7 MPG) compared to someone like Ballinger (37.9 MPG for just 2.5 FPG) or a noted terrier like Davidson (36.7 MPG for 3.2 FPG).

EC, not much point for a 36ers fan crying about the Kings expenditure. Saville would be expensive, but I doubt they're paying Victor much and a lot of the rest would be fairly efficiently paid. Certainly wouldn't be far off the cost of the 36ers roster had Newley stayed, for example. Definitely doubt that Sydney would rank in the top four teams for roster cost, yet they have a pretty formidable record.

Reply #164764 | Report this post


EC  
Years ago

They do seem to have available money at the drop of a hat to replace an import. If the cost of their team compares well with Adelaide if Newley had come on board, then chances are we may have been a better quality team as well. Money does buy quality.

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DDFan  
Years ago

The Kings having a Boomer coach would give them a handy edge in recruitment. It could probably give them a bit of leverage with negotiations too. Good luck to 'em.

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Isaac  
Years ago

EC, you are way off with regard to them replacing imports at will - earlier in the season, they had to stall Victor's first game for weeks on end due to the salary cap. They were also in such a dire financial position that there was a very real danger of them folding.

Being the Boomers coach is a factor (would've helped in recruiting Hinder, for example), but IMO that is outweighed by his reputation as really pushing and improving his players. Crosswhite got dumped out of college before Goorjian picked him up and he's been useful since. Worthington and Kendall have been great pick-ups from college, Tovey is always improving, and Carter is pretty efficient for a tenth man that the club have stuck by over the years.

Making a Boomers team gets players a bit of cash, but improving their game is going to be worth more in the long run. (Tovey would've gone from minimum in Perth to now being able to get a half-decent offer from another team IMO.)

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Isaac  
Years ago

Just wanted to add this:

---

Obviously there'd be hiccups in a smallish dataset (different game plans, injuries, etc) but here are the H vs A records for the teams that have played the Kings at their respective venues. +1 indicates that the foul count favoured the Kings. (-3) indicates that they received a more favourable result with regard to fouls on the road than at home. One will note that in 5 of 6 cases, the difference favoured the Kings at home.

FWIW:

36ers - +1 at home, +4 on the road (-3)
Breakers - +16 at home, +0 on the road (+16)
Razorbacks - +6 at home, -4 on the road (+10)
Bullets - +15 at home, +1 on the road (+14)
Crocodiles - +5 at home, +3 on the road (+2)
Taipans - +4 at home, -4 on the road (+8)

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Isaac  
Years ago

More info thanks to NBLStats.com - negative number in the Difference column could imply a bit of "home cooking". Would ideally need to show opposition numbers in each of those games.

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Panther  
Years ago

Definitely due top a lot of flopping and baiting players in my opinion. The technical foul called on Phil Jones after Worthington hit him was disgraceful!

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