This is like deja vu and the predictions back in August on how the 36ers were going to play

lol at ushiro. Not sure if your comment was meant to be funny but i thought it was gold

Ushiro, it might be early to be certain of what Packer is going to do, but having read that article and a couple of others, you gotta admit that Packer's involvement is likely to change the current direction of Ten for the worse.

The Australian has also reported that Lachlan Murdoch is negotiating to buy half of Packer's stake in Ten. Considering those two control the two companies that own half of Foxtel and all of Foxsports, you'd have to think it likely that these two have plans to stitch up the tv sports market.

Hopefully it all works out for the best, but basketball's recovery is new and fragile in this country and I will p*ssed if it gets canned for rugby league or cheap re-runs that merely serve to line Packer's pockets.

Yes, tongue in cheek comment SRT070 as it is all doom and gloom apparently and the NBL contract will definately be torn up by James Packer. I prefer to wait until a decision is actually made before I tear out what little hair I have left.

I have read the linked article and several others and none of them actually refer to changed programming for One HD. What they do refer to is making the station more profitable and capturing the 16-39 year market which would actually make you believe that Sport would remain. One HD is unique in the FTA market as both Nine's and Seven's alternative channels are sit coms, dramas, etc which are similar programming to Fox. Basketball isnt the only Sport that is tied up to One HD and you would hope that the broadcasting contracts are watertight.

I'm thinking (hoping) it's gonna be ok...

As I see it, it all comes down to the Fed Gov review of the "sport on FTA TV" paper or whatever its called. Currently it is a list of sports that must be shown on FTA first, such as the Melb Cup, AFL/NRL grandfinal etc, this list is more extensive than you would think. So Packer is getting a foot in both camps to cover all options.

So if the policy remains relatively unchanged - which looks likely and is probably what Packer is banking on - then I would see ONE remain in a similar format and Packer, with money from FOX sports & ONE, going after as much sport as possible - AFL / NRL / Cricket etc. Then showing what is req. by law on FTA and spreading the rest across both FOX & ONE

OR

If the FED Govt significantly reduces the required FTA list - Not likely - then he may change the Format for ONE and move all the sport to FOX.

But what if in the next 18 months he doesn't win any of the bidding wars for the broadcast rights of the sports he's after? Doubt it, he's got enough money and he'd rather buy and bust than not give it a crack.

So I think/hope the NBL on FTA is safe.

If not we better hope the 5 year contract with 10 is water tight, or that the NBL lawyers are bigger and uglier than packers lawyers - Not likely.

I also think/hope that Packer has a decent understanding of the changing TV climate. It's becoming a domain in which content can be viewed on demand be it people recording programs to their Tivo/DVR's or buying the series on DVD or online either downloading or streaming. All of these modes, except some streaming, make it easy for the viewer to minimize or completely remove advertising. So advertisers and networks will move to broadcast content that the viewer "needs" to see live, such as Sport, news/current affairs (who watches yesterdays news?) and reality shows - MasterChef/idol types - which people like to stay up to date with to talk about "around the water cooler" at work the next day or with your mother in-law if you have too.

So as more movies, drama and comedy series are viewed on demand more of the advertising dollar will head to live sport.

Thats my prediction, and hopefully Packer thinks the same and keeps NBL on FTA

One last post, if we're all this concerned maybe we should launch a take over bid of our own, at least a significant share - depending upon the make up of the other shareholders even 5% can be pivotal. Get every person that wants to keep NBL on FTA to buy some network 10 shares, I'd be a solid investment either way. We could keep NBL on FTA, do some serious deals and make some money. its win-win people.


WIN-WIN!

And lets not forget Digital FTA broadcasts are set to expand into more of the populated regional areas of Australia in the next 12 months. This, I suspect, will have a significant impact on pay tv subscriptions which are likely to affect foxsports bottom line.

It has been observed that since metropolitan areas started receiving expanded choices of FTA content GROWTH of pay tv subscriptions have been on a slow decline. This might explain Foxtel's recent push to encourage people to subscribe to multiple box subscriptions.

I tend to agree with Ushiro's post, there has been a lot of "Chicken Little" type comments however J Pac might appreciate that pay tv's share of national viewership may not be as financially rewarding in the next 3-5 years compared to that of the past 10.

Only time will tell but like others I'll be most disappointed if NBL & NBA can only be viewed on pay tv in the near future.

AFAIK, One HD made money this last year but the issue at hand (beyond Fox) is that the extra channels from 7 and 9 (e.g., Go, 7mate, etc) are more profitable because they make use of cheap content.

surely the watchdog cannot let this slide.