Isaac
Years ago

36ers +/- for every game plus season total

This is the season to date, game by game. Initially, players won't be ordered but will be colour-coded to indicate whether they were in the positive or not. Opposition teams will be included also. MPG, etc not included.

In each case, first five listed are the starters. The rest are in the order they entered the game.

I could go through and order them manually by +/- ranking, but then we'd lose the starters/subs order which some might find interesting.

HOME TEAM
Troy De Vries: 8
Brad Hill: -9
Jacob Holmes: -6
Craig Winder: -1
Adam Ballinger: -3
Rhys Carter: 0
Daniel Johnson: 11
Jeff Dowdell: 8
Darren Ng: 17

ROAD TEAM
Stephen Weigh: 9
Matthew Knight: -4
Kevin Lisch: -1
Shawn Redhage: 0
Damian Martin: 3
Jesse Wagstaff: -2
Brad Robbins: -2
Cameron Tovey: -16
Drew Williamson: -8
Jeremiah Trueman: -4



HOME TEAM
Ayinde Ubaka: 5
Aaron Grabau: 3
Ian Crosswhite: 3
Phill Jones: 5
Alex Loughton: 4
Daniel Dillon: 16
Dusty Rychart: 8
Ron Dorsey: 9
Dean Brebner: 2

ROAD TEAM
Troy De Vries: -12
Brad Hill: 2
Jacob Holmes: -5
Craig Winder: 5
Adam Ballinger: -6
Rhys Carter: -15
Daniel Johnson: -9
Jeff Dowdell: -16
Darren Ng: -8


HOME TEAM
Troy De Vries: -13
Brad Hill: -20
Jacob Holmes: 2
Craig Winder: -13
Adam Ballinger: -16
Daniel Johnson: -14
Rhys Carter: 8
Jeff Dowdell: -3
Darren Ng: -1

ROAD TEAM
Gary Ervin: 19
Oscar Forman: 18
Larry Davidson: 12
Glen Saville: 14
Mat Campbell: 6
Tim Coenraad: 4
Tim Behrendorff: -2
Tyson Demos: -1


HOME TEAM
Troy De Vries: 8
Brad Hill: 10
Jacob Holmes: 7
Craig Winder: 18
Adam Ballinger: 19
Daniel Johnson: 2
Rhys Carter: 9
Darren Ng: -6
Jeff Dowdell: -7

ROAD TEAM
Julian Khazzouh: -6
Luke Cooper: -11
Damien Ryan: -10
Rod Grizzard: -15
Taj McCullough: -7
Graeme Dann: -3
Ben Madgen: -5
Blagoj Janev: -8
Jarrod Scoines: 5


HOME TEAM
Troy De Vries: -6
Brad Hill: 12
Jacob Holmes: -2
Craig Winder: -12
Adam Ballinger: -10
Rhys Carter: -6
Daniel Johnson: -2
Darren Ng: 0
Jeff Dowdell: 3
Sam Harris: 3

ROAD TEAM
Thomas Abercrombie: 2
Mika Vukona: -2
Cj Bruton: -1
Paul Henare: -2
Gary Wilkinson: -7
Dillon Boucher: 15
Kevin Braswell: 11
Corey Webster: 0
Alex Pledger: 4


HOME TEAM
Ayinde Ubaka: 19
Ron Dorsey: 4
Ian Crosswhite: 7
Daniel Dillon: -5
Alex Loughton: 5
Phill Jones: 21
Dusty Rychart: 5
Aaron Grabau: 12
Dean Brebner: 16
James Mitchell: -3
Gareth Dawson: -1

ROAD TEAM
Troy De Vries: -12
Jacob Holmes: -4
Craig Winder: -12
Adam Ballinger: -13
Brad Hill: 0
Rhys Carter: -16
Daniel Johnson: -3
Darren Ng: -9
Sam Harris: -4
Jeff Dowdell: -7


HOME TEAM
Luke Schenscher: -12
Will Blalock: 14
Russell Hinder: -1
Peter Crawford: 0
Michael Cedar: -7
Gabe Freeman: 7
Nathan Crosswell: -8
Todd Blanchfield: 10
Ben Allen: 14
Brad Williamson: 3

ROAD TEAM
Troy De Vries: -13
Brad Hill: -6
Jacob Holmes: -14
Craig Winder: 8
Adam Ballinger: 0
Rhys Carter: -5
Daniel Johnson: 1
Darren Ng: 4
Jeff Dowdell: 5


HOME TEAM
Troy De Vries: -5
Brad Hill: -14
Jacob Holmes: 0
Craig Winder: -9
Adam Ballinger: -6
Rhys Carter: 26
Daniel Johnson: 17
Mitchell Creek: 23
Jeff Dowdell: 15
Darren Ng: 18

ROAD TEAM
Luke Schenscher: 7
Russell Hinder: -13
Will Blalock: 6
Peter Crawford: 1
Michael Cedar: -8
Todd Blanchfield: -10
Nathan Crosswell: -13
Gabe Freeman: -13
Ben Allen: -7
Brad Williamson: -15


HOME TEAM
Gary Ervin: 5
Oscar Forman: 1
Larry Davidson: 0
Glen Saville: 7
Mat Campbell: 4
Tim Coenraad: 5
Tim Behrendorff: -4
Tyson Demos: -7
David Gruber: -1

ROAD TEAM
Troy De Vries: -12
Brad Hill: 1
Jacob Holmes: -4
Rhys Carter: 5
Adam Ballinger: -5
Eddie Shannon: -4
Daniel Johnson: 0
Darren Ng: 8
Jeff Dowdell: 1


HOME TEAM
Brad Hill: 7
Jacob Holmes: 11
Eddie Shannon: 1
Rhys Carter: 5
Adam Ballinger: 2
Darren Ng: 2
Daniel Johnson: -4
Mitchell Creek: -3
Jeff Dowdell: -1

ROAD TEAM
Luke Martin: 2
Julian Khazzouh: -11
Trey Gilder: 3
Patrick Sanders: -2
Ben Knight: 5
Joel Wagner: -6
Damien Ryan: 2
Blagoj Janev: -5
Ben Madgen: -8


HOME TEAM
Brad Hill: -3
Jacob Holmes: -10
Eddie Shannon: 1
Rhys Carter: 2
Adam Ballinger: 4
Ron Howard: 2
Daniel Johnson: 8
Mitchell Creek: -1
Jeff Dowdell: -6
Darren Ng: -7

ROAD TEAM
Luke Schenscher: 16
Russell Hinder: -6
Will Blalock: 3
Peter Crawford: 2
Michael Cedar: 4
Rosell Ellis: 0
Todd Blanchfield: 2
Nathan Crosswell: -1
Ben Allen: -3
Brad Williamson: -7


HOME TEAM
Brad Hill: 23
Jacob Holmes: 20
Eddie Shannon: 21
Ron Howard: 8
Adam Ballinger: 13
Aaron Bruce: -6
Darren Ng: 6
Daniel Johnson: 2
Mitchell Creek: -8
Jeff Dowdell: -5
Tom Daly: 1

ROAD TEAM
Gary Ervin: -16
Oscar Forman: -19
Larry Davidson: -15
Tim Coenraad: -3
Mat Campbell: -12
Tyson Demos: -11
Rhys Martin: -2
Tim Behrendorff: 2
David Gruber: 2
Daniel Jackson: -1


HOME TEAM
Corey Williams: 24
Tom Greer: 5
Cameron Tragardh: 0
Eric Devendorf: 16
Luke Nevill: 9
Matthew Burston: 21
Lucas Walker: 18
Daryl Corletto: 9
Wade Helliwell: 19
Benny Lewis: -2
Moses Adepoju: -7
Boden Westover: -7

ROAD TEAM
Brad Hill: 6
Jacob Holmes: -10
Eddie Shannon: -9
Ron Howard: -8
Adam Ballinger: -5
Aaron Bruce: -16
Daniel Johnson: -15
Mitchell Creek: -14
Darren Ng: -18
Jeff Dowdell: -16


HOME TEAM
Brad Hill: 0
Jacob Holmes: -11
Eddie Shannon: -7
Ron Howard: -3
Adam Ballinger: 4
Jeff Dowdell: -6
Aaron Bruce: 4
Mitchell Creek: 1
Darren Ng: -6
Daniel Johnson: 0
Tom Daly: -1

ROAD TEAM
Kirk Penney: 2
Thomas Abercrombie: 5
Mika Vukona: 12
Paul Henare: 1
Gary Wilkinson: 4
Dillon Boucher: -7
Kevin Braswell: 2
CJ Bruton: 0
Alex Pledger: 1
Corey Webster: 5


HOME TEAM
Brad Hill: 12
Jacob Holmes: 8
Eddie Shannon: 0
Ron Howard: 9
Adam Ballinger: 2
Daniel Johnson: 1
Mitchell Creek: -2
Aaron Bruce: 1
Tom Daly: 4
Jeff Dowdell: 0

ROAD TEAM
Darryl Hudson: -8
Adam Gibson: 4
Ira Clark: -6
Mark Worthington: -11
Chris Goulding: -3
Jason Cadee: -9
Tom Garlepp: 2
Stephen Hoare: -1
Brendan Teys: -3


HOME TEAM
Kirk Penney: 20
Thomas Abercrombie: -5
Mika Vukona: 3
Paul Henare: 21
Gary Wilkinson: 24
Kevin Braswell: -3
Alex Pledger: -6
Cj Bruton: 15
Dillon Boucher: 11
Corey Webster: -6
Benny Anthony: -4

ROAD TEAM
Brad Hill: 5
Jacob Holmes: 1
Eddie Shannon: -11
Ron Howard: 0
Adam Ballinger: -17
Mitchell Creek: -21
Jeff Dowdell: 1
Aaron Bruce: -14
Daniel Johnson: -11
Tom Daly: -3


HOME TEAM
Brad Hill: 7
Jacob Holmes: -2
Eddie Shannon: -1
Ron Howard: -7
Adam Ballinger: 4
Daniel Johnson: 5
Mitchell Creek: -9
Jeff Dowdell: 6
Aaron Bruce: 2
Tom Daly: 0

ROAD TEAM
Cameron Tovey: 5
Brad Robbins: 4
Andre Brown: -6
Shawn Redhage: 9
Damian Martin: -5
Stephen Weigh: -9
Kevin Lisch: -7
Jeremiah Trueman: -4
Drew Williamson: 2
Ater Majok: 6


HOME TEAM
Stephen Weigh: -2
Cameron Tovey: -8
Kevin Lisch: -5
Andre Brown: 10
Damian Martin: -16
Jeremiah Trueman: -8
Brad Robbins: 12
Drew Williamson: 9
Ater Majok: 2
Greg Hire: 1

ROAD TEAM
Brad Hill: 12
Jacob Holmes: 4
Eddie Shannon: 10
Ron Howard: 0
Adam Ballinger: 6
Rhys Carter: -3
Daniel Johnson: -5
Mitchell Creek: -7
Jeff Dowdell: -4
Tom Daly: -8


HOME TEAM
Ben Madgen: 18
Luke Martin: 14
Trey Gilder: 3
Graeme Dann: 17
Julian Khazzouh: 11
Patrick Sanders: 4
Kevin White: -5
Ben Knight: -12
Jarrod Scoines: -5

ROAD TEAM
Brad Hill: 1
Jacob Holmes: -16
Rhys Carter: -16
Ron Howard: -19
Adam Ballinger: -10
Aaron Bruce: -4
Tom Daly: 7
Mitchell Creek: 4
Daniel Johnson: 8
Jeff Dowdell: 0


HOME TEAM
Adam Gibson: 25
Tom Garlepp: 3
Ira Clark: 22
Stephen Hoare: 34
James Harvey: 30
Chris Goulding: -1
Darryl Hudson: -15
Jason Cadee: -2
Ater Majok: -10
Luke Kendall: 4
Brendan Teys: -10

ROAD TEAM
Brad Hill: -4
Jacob Holmes: -16
Eddie Shannon: -26
Ron Howard: -24
Adam Ballinger: -13
Jeff Dowdell: -1
Daniel Johnson: -2
Mitchell Creek: -7
Rhys Carter: 8
Tom Daly: 5


HOME TEAM
Brad Hill: -4
Jacob Holmes: 4
Eddie Shannon: 2
Rhys Carter: -19
Adam Ballinger: -11
Daniel Johnson: 1
Aaron Bruce: 8
Ron Howard: -6
Mitchell Creek: 5
Jeff Dowdell: 0
Tom Daly: 5

ROAD TEAM
Corey Williams: -3
Daryl Corletto: 6
Tom Greer: 5
Cameron Tragardh: 3
Matthew Burston: 1
Lucas Walker: -2
Wade Helliwell: 2
Benny Lewis: -1
Yusuf Qaafow: 4


HOME TEAM
Stephen Weigh: 16
Damian Martin: 6
Kevin Lisch: 16
Jesse Wagstaff: 8
Andre Brown: 9
Cameron Tovey: 4
Matthew Knight: 19
Brad Robbins: 14
Drew Williamson: 4
Jeremiah Trueman: 6
Greg Hire: -2
Jarrad Prior: 0

ROAD TEAM
Adam Ballinger: -15
Brad Hill: -7
Jacob Holmes: -4
Eddie Shannon: -18
Aaron Bruce: -14
Rhys Carter: -1
Mitchell Creek: -14
Daniel Johnson: -12
Jeff Dowdell: -8
Tom Daly: -7

Topic #25012 | Report this topic


Anonymous  
Years ago

Isaac can you please give the players totals over all for the season. thanks

Reply #308827 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

Will have to calculate them manually, but sure. OK, here they are. If anyone wants to double-check, please do as I went through fairly quickly and could've made a mistake.

Edit: Updating these with the latest game.

Brad Hill: +31
Tom Daly: +3
Darren Ng: 0

Sam Harris: -1
Daniel Johnson: -7
Craig Winder: -16 (cut)
Rhys Carter: -18
Aaron Bruce: -39
Jeff Dowdell: -41
Eddie Shannon: -41
Jacob Holmes: -47
Ron Howard: -48
Mitchell Creek: -53
Troy De Vries: -57 (cut)
Adam Ballinger: -76

Reply #308836 | Report this post


Jack Toft  
Years ago

Tigers at home.....

Daniel Johnson 27
Rhys Carter 25
Darren Ng 23
Brad Hill 21
Jacob Holmes 21
Eddie Shannon 17
Tom Daly 9
Mitchell Creek 6
Aaron Bruce 4
Jeff Dowdell 4
Ron Howard 3
Sam Harris 3
Adam Ballinger 2
Troy De Vries -8
Craig Winder -17

Reply #308854 | Report this post


Jack Toft  
Years ago

Pussy cats away.....

Brad Hill 17
Craig Winder 1
Tom Daly 1
Sam Harris -4
Darren Ng -23
Aaron Bruce -34
Daniel Johnson -36
Jeff Dowdell -37
Eddie Shannon -40
Rhys Carter -42
Mitchell Creek -45
Troy De Vries -49
Ron Howard -51
Adam Ballinger -63
Jacob Holmes -64

Reply #308856 | Report this post


Jack Toft  
Years ago

Should spouses go on tour?

Reply #308857 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

Impact of the road over the course of the season:

Craig Winder +18
Darren Ng +0
Brad Hill -4
Sam Harris -7
Tom Daly -8
Aaron Bruce -38
Jeff Dowdell -41
Troy De Vries -49
Mitchell Creek -51
Ron Howard -54
Eddie Shannon -57
Daniel Johnson -63
Adam Ballinger -65
Rhys Carter -67
Jacob Holmes -85

Reply #308862 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Isaac, Trying to make a case for not retaining Ballinger or just thinking out aloud?

IMO, re-sign Ballinger, sign Schenscher and worry about all the role players after that.

Reply #308865 | Report this post


KB3  
Years ago

using Jack's stats swings on the road are

Ballinger -61
Holmes -85
Howard - 54
Johnson -63
Shannon -57
Ng -46
Creek -51
Carter -67
Bruce - 40
Dowdell - 41
Hill -4

Would be good to go the extra step and have a weighting for junk time etc as some of the NBA teams do

if this was done i would suggest that Ballinger would come out even worse eg Points scored v Blaze when game was cooked.

The proverbial hoops whipping boy Brad Hill look a lot better than others on comparison.


Reply #308866 | Report this post


NBA agent  
Years ago

can someone please tell me what this +/- actually means. To me it doesnt show a lot, Howards first game was pretty good but only got +2. And for the whole season balls is last with -61 and is probably one of our best players.
So what does it show us supporters how players are playing?

Reply #308869 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

NBA agent, +/- shows the aggregate points swing while you're on court. e.g., 36ers might lose by 10, but if, while a player was on, the 36ers scored more than their opposition, that player might be +8. Alternatively, a team could win by five, but some players might cop a horrible run against them and be -3, -6, etc.

In one game, it's rash to draw massive conclusions. Sometimes it indicates something important, other times a player might just be on when they or someone else gets hot - maybe they were the instigator in a 10-0 run or maybe they were just coasting while someone else buried a bunch of threes. I think, though, that over the course of a season it *should* show more and those issues should even out - just a hunch. I mean, the game is about outscoring the other team and if you help that happen, you're surely an asset to the team. If you score but give up more points at the other end, there's a problem.


Anon '865, just putting the data out there and interested to see what people derive from it in the first instance (tried to find a way to avoid that term, but oh well). Wondering if it reveals something that we are blind to or doubt. Brad Hill, for example, cops a lot from people on here, but this shows that more often than not when he's on the court, we make runs and forge ahead. He's not a lockdown defender, but he often creates for himself and might facilitate something different by freelancing?

I think Ballinger is already signed for next season anyway.

I've said a few times that Ballinger might be most effective when surrounded by certain types of players. Or it could well be about how he goes under Clarke or the so-called "out of position" issue. We'd need to do this for last year and the year before to know more but I don't know if the NBL provides those play-by-plays in the same format.

Reply #308884 | Report this post


Peter  
Years ago

NBA Agent - I believe it's the nett points for (+) or against (-) the 6ers while the player was on court. So Ballinger, who sees a lot of court time, probably would end up in the negatives in a losing season. The question is whether the losing season has to do with his being on court or he's coming up negative because the other 6ers have been rubbish most of the time and his +/- suffered by virtue of being on court a lot? I leave that for others to comment on- I don't know.

Reply #308885 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

hill has been on court a lot peter

Reply #308887 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

Aggregate result for the 36ers over the season is -63. Quite remarkable that Hill has been able to contribute so positively despite that.

Will try to see if I can get my script working out playing combinations, either naturally or by manually creating conditions for requested combos.

Reply #308894 | Report this post


NBA agent  
Years ago

cheers now i know what ya all talking about now

Reply #308913 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

Been reading a bit more about it all. Might try to get the script outputting on-court +/- and adjusting for off-court +/-. Anyone more familiar with statistics who wants to chime in or email through ideas, let me know.

Edit: Found last seasons play-by-plays so will output those in a separate topic for those interested. About to process them now. Can't do the year before because the stats are in a different format.

Reply #308917 | Report this post


Jack Toft  
Years ago

Isaac, one of the "secrets" of statistics is to look at the flipside as you say. Sometimes, the Probability of something happening doesn't necessarily mean the probability of something not occurring.

For example, get 26 people in a room. Now you would think the probability of two people having the same birthday is 2/365 (1 in 182.5), but re-word it to "at least 2 people sharing the birthday", and the P (at least) = 1 - P (none). Re-work the calcs and the probability of at least 2 people in 26 sharing the same birthday is around 50%. I am sure that of the "40 odd wankers on Hoops SA" as quoted to me by a former coach, there would be at least one born on the 11th of March.

Now, standard deviation (SD) is an important thing, but SD is proportion to the number of samples (n), and the "range". Also, the important thing with stats is whether events are dependent or independent.

For example, consider roulette. The green slot means that if you were to bet on black on the 50:50 patch, your chance of winning is 46%, and loosing 54%. But SD is proportion to the number of times you place a bet, therefore the more you bet (play), the tighter the variation becomes and so even though you might win the first few bets, after say 1,000 bets, the average becomes -4% +/- a few %. You an guaranteed a loss.

Looking at the +/-,
LOCATION Ave SD
Home 1.22 8.98
Road (5.39) 8.50

Because the SD's of the +/- are basically the same, what this tells me is that there are two processes at work. Now, road performance is essentially 0.75 SD's lower that home performance, something called a "t-test" would confirm the Sixers are worse on the road.

Reply #308936 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

W-L record confirms that! ;)

Reply #308938 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Those stats dont mean a whole lot.

Just look at what guys average on the road compared to home games.
Some guys stats halve on the road??
They go to shit when they dont have a home crowd roooting for them
and those same guys usually go missing under pressure in finals or clutch times.
As an example , Jonnie Rillie was great for WS and Townsvile where as Matt Campbell for the Hawks has gone missing?
Have you got points avarages of all players in the league the last 3 years for home games and away games?
There r some players that might surprise you>
James

Reply #308940 | Report this post


Jack Toft  
Years ago

Now, at the risk of sounding like a hater, let's consider Balls.

LOCATION AVE SD
Home 0.2 10.0
Road (7.0) 7.1

His average +/- on the road drops off by around 1 standard deviation.

Lets consider the Hillbilly
LOCATION AVE SD
Home 1.75 12
Road 1.89 5.4

His average +/- is is essentially the same, but his SD is reduced indicating a more consistent road performance.

Reply #308946 | Report this post


Jack Toft  
Years ago

A study was undertaking comparing Babe Ruth and Don Bradman. The yanks believed Babe Ruth was a far better sportsman in his field than the Don. To prove this, someone looked at the scoring averages. Babe's average was X SD's away from the mean and the Don's was over X SD's from the mean suggesting that Don was a much better sportsman.

The only problem with +/- is we assume that they are the only variable on the court. Probably need to also look at the scoring rate (ppm) for both teams when a player is on court, and off court.

Reply #308947 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

Here's the topic with the 2009/10 data.

The season sums were:

David Cooper: +45
Chris Molitor: +2

Darren Ng: -2
Brad Hill: -4
Tom Garlepp: -4
Jacob Holmes: -44
Nathan Herbert: -58
John Gilchrist: -61
Cortez Groves: -63
Matthew Burston: -64
Adam Ballinger: -100

Reply #308954 | Report this post


anon  
Years ago

For those who care about the fascts they dont lie.
When Brad Hill is on the court the team clearly has performed better. 27 min in last 5 wins 19 in last 5 losses. His numbers speak for themselves. Get off his case and look to other problems, check the shooting % of those chucking.

Reply #308961 | Report this post


KB3  
Years ago

Isaac is it possible to identify who was on the floor tonight during these parts of the game tonight

Quarter 1 4:29 - 0:00 no points scored
Quarter 2 7:39 -0:00 6 points scored
Quarter 3 10:00 - 2:15 4 points scored

That is over a half of basketball in collective time for a sum total of 10 points.

We are not getting to the foul line when the shots dry up to keep the board ticking over.

on the flip side we did score 52 points in approximately 19 minutes.

Reply #308967 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

KB3:

1st, 4:29 - 0:00
At 4:29 it's Shannon, Carter, Creek, Holmes, Ballinger (starters but for one sub, Hill going out obviously).

At 4:12, Carter and Holmes go out for Bruce and Johnson. At 3:04, Ballinger goes out for Dowdell. At 2:07, Shannon goes out for Daly. At 0:46, Johnson, Creek and Dowdell go out for Hill, Holmes and Ballinger.

2nd, 7:39 - 0:00
It's Shannon, Carter, Hill, Ballinger, Holmes. At 6:10, Hill goes out for Creek. Carter hits 2/2 FT. Ballinger hits a three. At 1:40, Ballinger and Creek go out for Johnson and Hill. For the last 0:34, Shannon goes out for Bruce.

3rd, 10:00 - 2:15
Third starts with Shannon, Carter, Hill, Holmes, Ballinger. At 7:20, Carter goes out for Daly. At 5:34, Holmes goes out for Dowdell. At 4:48, Daly and Hill go out for Bruce and Creek. At 3:50, Ballinger and Shannon are replaced by Johnson and Carter.

---

Here are the times quickly summed during those periods and ranked - usual disclaimer about possible errors:

Shannon 15:37
Ballinger 14:20
Holmes 13:08
Carter 12:11
Creek 10:46
Hill 9:07
Bruce 7:19
Johnson 6:41
Dowdell 5:47
Daly 4:39

Looks roughly like the starters/bench but with Hill/Creek swapped (times too close to think there's something in that?).

Reply #308971 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

anon,

You can use +/- to justify anything. Look at last season's stats, David Cooper +45. He was horrible last season but because he happened to be on court with better players around him in garbage time it makes him look like a star. You take +/- with a large grain of salt.

Reply #308983 | Report this post


KB3  
Years ago

A relative discussion point might be to analyse Paul Pierce's +/- pre and post the Allen and Garnett signings. i cant find historic +/- anywhere though

also thought this may be relevant to the discussion.


http://bullsbythehorns.com/?tag=plus-minus-stats Rose is in the same boat as Ballinger it seems when looking at the plus minus stat

Reply #309002 | Report this post


LC  
Years ago

Hill certainly comes out looking a lot better based on + / -

Reply #309008 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

Rose is second in the team this year. Deng tops him and also features in the best 11 three-man combinations. Rose is in the top three three-man combinations.

Ballinger is probably suffering from the same thing that happens in Minnesota - Love is one of their best players, but is clear bottom in +/-.

Looking at the Bucks, Jennings is bottom as an individual. Bogut is 7th out of 15. Bogut is in the top two five-man combos. Doesn't feature in the first six three-man combos.

Reply #309010 | Report this post


Jack Toft  
Years ago

I think that understanding the combos is actually the key to understanding this +/- business.

Reply #309014 | Report this post


Juror 12  
Years ago

If your team loses a lot then you would expect the players that play the most minutes to have bad +/- (e.g Ballinger). This is why the Hill +/- is relevant - you would expect it to be much worse given our record this year. So for mine there is defintely something in that.

Also - is it just me or is Creek's +/- appalling. He has the third worse +/- and hasn't played many minutes compared to the others (probably about half as many as Hill and a third of Ballinger). Per minute +/- would be interesting to see (averaged over the season).

Reply #309020 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

Anon '983, someone like Garlepp was likely on in garbage time more so than Cooper (who often subbed earlier) yet was -4.

This year, Hill has started and played the third most minutes in the team (behind Ballinger and Holmes). Yet it seems he is somehow a distinctly positive influence while on court.

Interested to hear what people think might be behind it. As I've said, he's not considered an especially good defender though he ranks well for steals in the league and he doesn't have any outlandish statistics so maybe he creates motion, creates for himself (where without him, the team is more stagnant)?

---

Juror, I think that's where the on-court, off-court stuff might come into play. Yes, we lose when x is on, but do we lose more or less when they are off?

---

Another interesting thing was the difference between DeVries and Winder.

---

Oh, and also might be something in the home-vs-road swings. e.g., Hill is fairly consistent either way, but other starters have huge swings against them on the road.

Reply #309022 | Report this post


billo  
Years ago

For example, get 26 people in a room. Now you would think the probability of two people having the same birthday is 2/365 (1 in 182.5), but re-word it to "at least 2 people sharing the birthday", and the P (at least) = 1 - P (none). Re-work the calcs and the probability of at least 2 people in 26 sharing the same birthday is around 50%. I am sure that of the "40 odd wankers on Hoops SA" as quoted to me by a former coach, there would be at least one born on the 11th of March.


At the risk of hijacking the thread I don't agree with the last bit you've put in there Jack. The odds of one of the "40 odd wankers" being born on a specific day (as opposed to sharing a birthday with another wanker) is significantly less and by my calculations comes in around 10.4%. I reckon you'd need 253 wankers before you had a 50% chance of one of them being born on a specific date. (Happy to be proven wrong, my uni stats are long forgotten and I'm just going off logic with my calcs).

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Camel 31  
Years ago

Cooper,after all, played best for us in his last season.
Garlepp played about 5minutes, last season.

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