Anonymous
Years ago

The NBL teams thus far in 2011/12...

Bored at home so I thought I would share my views on the league and each team with just over a third of the season in the books.
Feel free to challenge my views and ask questions... Just putting up some discussion points.
Here goes:
I have seen every team play on TV at least three times and I have seen Adelaide, Melbourne, Townsville, Sydney, Gold Coast and New Zealand play live.

Early on, before Damian Martin's injury I was almost prepared to lock in Perth as Grand Final locks however they have wavered without him and other teams have stepped up to the plate. Cairns, Gold Coast and Sydney have all improved vastly.

Townsville look weakened severely by losing Schenscher and skipper Hinder while Adelaide have some nice pieces but seem to lack too much in terms of depth and consistency.

Team by team analysis:
New Zealand - The reigning champions are still a force even without scoring machine Kirk Penney. New import Cedric Jackson looks clean and smooth providing Bruton, Wilkinson and Abercrombie with shots while the Kiwis are getting strong inside play from Vukona and Alex Pledger who is developing nicely.
Corletto seems to be slotting in nicely now and his shooting will be important later on. I expect this team to have a huge say in the season decider unless Jackson or Wilkinson go down.

Perth - We all know these guys play so hard, the fall back of that is injury and losing Martin hurts them dearly. He is their most important player and despite young Bartlett doing well he can never replace Martin's hustle and leadership.
Redhage was hot early but has cooled since and I expected more from Nevill inside while Matt Knight is super some games and silent the next.
Tovey, Williamson, Lisch, Robbins and once he is back, Martin, provide a lethal defensive combination while Wagstaff and Hire can come in and hustle and provide energy. Once they regain Martin they will be right there.

Melbourne - Let's state the obvious, losing Mills hurts but maybe not as much as first thought. I have a strong belief they can replace him with a legitimate big man. Maybe, just maybe even Bogut who seems to be very keen on spending some time in the NBL. Anyhow, Tragardh is playing well, he just needs to get fitter to provide a 35-minute inside presence while Dorsey is finally finding his groove.
Dillon is a nice defensive option while Walker and Greer can provide hustle, boards and some excitement.
I expect Ubaka to really flourish now and IF they sign a dominant big they I'll be very very hard to top.

Gold Coast - These guys are loaded, can score and might finally be getting their game together. Signing Deleon seems to be a masterstroke despite already having Gibson and Cadee. Whether they needed extra size will tell down the track but Hudson is a serviceable big man and fairly efficient.
They are loaded with versatile big man like Hoare, Worthington, Petrie and Garlepp.
I like their system but is it one that wins titles?

Cairns - These guys on paper look to lack talent and scoring but somehow coach Fearne has got them to .500 after 8.
Wilson is a solid import guard without being super while Drew Warren has copped some heat but has shown what he is capable of with three breakout shooting games. Being a shooter will always see him under pressure at times.
They need a healthy Loughton and Crosswhite to compete as Dowdell, Brebner, Williams and George don't provide a whole heap off the bench.
I struggle to see them hanging onto a winning record.

Townsville - Losing your starting power forward and centre is always tough but import Elvin Mims and late signing Holmes have down well to bridge the gap.
They are getting nothing from Michael Cedar and the second coming of Axel Dench in Ben Allen. Crawford is balling hard and young Blanchfield has been improving.
Norton leaves them lacking in depth while guard Eddie Gill is a reasonably consistent performer but might need to score more buckets.
Cannot see them in the finals.

Wollongong - The Hawks are struggling for mine. The new import Glover is not as good as hoped while Catron is and always has been too out of shape to be a real star. You can see his skills though.
Saville is really struggling while Coenraad has not come on anywhere near enough.
Davidson is a key while he needs help from Gruber and Forman badly.
They will clearly miss the finals.

Sydney - In Khazzouh and Grant I love their front court, obviously they lack depth but Bruce has been playing well while they have been getting cameos from Bose, Ratsczh and Madgen at times. Regaining Dann is important as he is versatile and compliments Khazzouh well.
Having Martin, Cooper, Iti and Gynes means they lack depth but they are improving slowly as a franchise. No finals though.

Adelaide - I love the addition of Simpson. He plays hard, has passion, rebounds and has a strong low post game.
With Ballinger struggling he and Johnson have still been a formiddable tandem while the much maligned Weigh has strung a few good games together and hit some big shots. I like Warren alongside veteran Crosswell but I would love to see him attack early and often instead of his recent fourth quarter runs.
Creek, Ng and Herbert have been quiet and significant improvement is needed there.
Will battle but could pass a couple.

PREDICTIONS
Champions - Wildcats
Runner-up - Breakers
3rd & 4th - Tigers and Blaze
MVP - Kevin Lisch / Gary Wilkinson
Defensive POY - Cedric Jackson
Sixth Man - Anthony Petrie
Coach of the Year - Rob Beveridge
All-Star 5
K. Lisch, C. Jackson, D. Simpson, J. Khazzouh, G. Wilkinson

That's my take, feel free to read, argue or completely ignore :-)

Topic #26884 | Report this topic


paul  
Years ago

Nice work!

Reply #339815 | Report this post


Jack Toft  
Years ago

Good work.

There will be a vacuum left by Mills and this may just suck the Tiggers down the ladder lower than you think.

1 & 2 seem set, throw a blanket over the rest - every win or loss crucial.

Reply #339819 | Report this post


paul  
Years ago

Could go either way with Melbourne. Onviously they need Ubaka and Dorsey playing well, and if Dillon can produce close to his best consistently in the 25-30 mins he'll probably get now they mightnt miss to much of a beat.

The replacement needs to be a contributor though, or else the lack of ball handlers and the lack of bigs could well catch up with them.

If they sign Ogilvy that would necessitate a chance in game plan you would think, with three bigs rotating through the 4 and 5.

Will be fascinating to see.

Reply #339822 | Report this post


Mick  
Years ago

I wish Ben Allen was the second coming of Axel Dench...

Would be an improvement over what he actually is...

Reply #339824 | Report this post


Mick  
Years ago

Schenscher will be back Dec 3. Crocs will be at full strength (except for Ben Allen, who will be a quarter strength, decaf latte of a ball player).

Hinder is eyeing a Feb return, but at this point in his career wont impact on the court, only in the locker room.

Reply #339826 | Report this post


alexkrad  
Years ago

Adelaide
Have the pieces of the puzzle but without Ballinger firing they don't have enough experience. Capable of being in the top four but too inconsistent to make it and probably too much catching up to do.

Cairns
Everyone was writing them off, with a team that didn’t look like it was going to get many wins has proved us all wrong. With Alex back if they can get both of the imports firing at the same time they should win a few games. Probably not enough to make the finals again though.

Gold Coast
Disappointing start to the season but with the new import PG they are starting to show what they are capable of. I expect them to make the finals but not past the semis.

Melbourne
I have always said they will be fine without Patty and after seeing him in the team I never changed my mind. Yeah he exploded a few times but it was when he had lots of assists that I thought he was making the most impact. Replace him with a creator that can draw in the defence and then dish and they wont skip a beat. Might lose a couple transitioning away from the Patty show but still a solid team even without a replacement. Will make finals.

New Zealand
They are still a force even without their scoring machine. Maybe starting to show signs of weakness here and there but I think they will only drop a game when the other team is really on point. Expect them to stay in the top 4 for the rest of the season.

Perth
(caution biased opinion) With Martin out we are seeing Robbins and Tovey stepping up, if they can keep up this momentum when he returns it will be a tough gig for opposing teams. Knight is back to where he should be lets just hope he stays injury free. Nevill has shown he can do his part but needs to get abit more aggressive on the boards. Lisch has had a couple average nights now but definitely shown he can explode on the points board when required. Redhage’s last couple weeks have been disappointing, he needs to be more consistent. If half the team is on point they will beat any team on any given night. Should finish top 2, should make the GF and should win it.

Sydney
Nice recruiting but they seem abit unorganised on the court. Have the tools to be a decent team but I don’t think they will reach their potential this season. Need to start winning at home to build crowds up and to have a respectable record by the end of the season.

Townsville
Will be a tough opponent, especially when Schencher comes back, if he is back to his best. I think they can be beaten though if their imports aren’t playing their best. Will miss out on the finals this year and I think will come back next season with a fresher team.

Woolongong
A team that is easy to write off but the mix of experience and youth seems to work. They could upset any team but could also be walked over by most. If Catron gets fit they will be a tougher match up but I think Showron is in way over his head. Finish in the second half of the table.

So.. I think the top 4 will be abit more in front than last seasons 1 game could get you in the finals finish.

Perth
New Zealand
Melbourne
Gold Coast

The rest of the pack will be pretty close together.. Doesn’t seem right putting the Hawks at the bottom but I think Sydney will get a couple more than them. Townsville should be a few in front of Cairns and Adelaide, who will be close.

Townsville
Cairns
Adelaide
Sydney
Woolongong

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dud  
Years ago

I think if Nevill gets his crap together will be the 6th man. Still a long way to go in the season yet though

Reply #339839 | Report this post


HoldenV8  
Years ago

I know we're only 7 weeks into a 25 week season but IF they continue as they have been.....what price DJ taking out the NBL's Most Improved and Diamon Simpson surely would be a leading candidate for Rookie of the Year (Chris Warren also IMO.....when could we last say our two imports have been playing well and haven't been a major reason for the teams somewhat poor form?)

Reply #339880 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

I think Bose will be ROTY.

Reply #339882 | Report this post


dud  
Years ago

Imports cannot win rookie of the year. Id say Bose has rookie of the year wrapped up by default

Reply #339883 | Report this post


HoldenV8  
Years ago

Fair enough. But if they could win RotY they'd both be in line for it.

I wonder.....seeing as he's Australian so he wasn't classed as an import and that he had never played in the NBL before was Patty Mills eligible? Had he played the whole season for the Tigers it might have been interesting.

Reply #339886 | Report this post


paul  
Years ago

He would have been a very easy choice!

Reply #339894 | Report this post




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