Player rotations & 'on fire' players

People have been attaching a lot of blame for our (36ers) losses to Marty subbing out players, just when they get 'hot' or hit a couple of consecutive shots. A study (that used stats from leagues including the NBA) however seems to be of the opinion that a player is more likely to miss their next shot having previously just made one!

Link to the journal article (its pretty long and technical)

http://www.nature.com/ncomms/journal/v2/n12/full/ncomms1580.html

Or to a shortened summary by someone who clearly knows little about basketball

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-16074623

Method in his madness?

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KingJames
Years ago

Nice try Marty.

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birdman
Years ago

^ hahaha!

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Anonymous
Years ago

given that players & teams average about 50% from the field (or less) it's common sense that you are likely to miss the one after you make... but the problem with common sense is it's not very common!

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Spinner
Years ago

Being on fire isn't just about making baskets. Active D, block shots, rebounds, all things that Marty appears to reward with sending the payer to the bench to leave players that aren't productive on the court.

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Bobby Tables
Years ago

"given that players & teams average about 50% from the field (or less) it's common sense that you are likely to miss the one after you make"

Oh dear.

I hope you're not a statistician or mathematics PhD candidate or something mate.

Reply #341708 | Report this post

ayjay
Years ago

Simple maths and probability make that true however
bring in a player who is not on fire and the obvious will happen, less points. As someone pointed out it cannot usefully be used without considering a hell of a lot more data.

Reply #341733 | Report this post

roguemachinex
Years ago

@KingJames

original comment, perhaps everyone on this forum should aim to throw out constructive "zingers" like you do... try reading my comment next time champ and you'll note I actually think the rotations Marty uses are a cause of our failures hence describing them as "madness".....

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Player rotations & 'on fire' players

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