Junior Finals stats

Hello once again,

Have changed my process for this season, hope it is an improvement, but like all BSA comps, still has its flaws.

I have taken the top 3 teams from each club in an age group (note: U10 and U18 girls only 2 grades) and ranked each club according to where their top 3 teams would finish if all clubs nominated a div 1,2,3 team. Then worked out which teams would make fnals.

Obviously, not all club have three teams in all age groups, nor have nominated in all div 1 or 2 grades. Along with double div 2 teams, it might be seen to unfairly go against those clubs who do not have a full 28 teams. But IMHO 15 boys and 13 girls teams should a somewhat baseline for clubs.

So the results are...

Boys

Sturt 15 out of 15 teams or 100%
Forestville 12 out of 15 teams or 80%
Norwood 8 out of 15 teams or 53%
North 6 out of 15 teams or 40%
Southern 5 out of 15 teams or 33%
Woodville 5 out of 15 teams or 33%
South 4 out of 15 teams or 27%
West 2 out of 15 teams or 13%
Centrals 2 out of 15 teams or 13%
Eastern 1 out of 15 teams or 7&

Girls

Forestville 13 out of 13 teams or 100%
Sturt 12 out of 13 teams or 92%
Norwood 6 out of 13 teams or 46%
West 5 out of 13 teams or 38%
Southern 4 out of 13 teams or 30%
Eastern 4 out of 13 teams or 30%
North 3 out of 13 teams or 23%
South 3 out of 13 teams or 23%
Woodville 2 out of 13 teams or 15%
Centrals 1 out of 13 teams or 8%

Overall

Sturt 27 out of 28 teams or 96%
Forestville 25 out of 28 teams or 89%
Norwood 14 out of 28 teams or 50%
North 9 out of 28 teams or 32%
Southern 9 out of 28 teams or 32%
South 7 out of 28 teams or 25%
West 7 out of 28 teams or 25%
Woodville 7 out of 28 teams or 25%
Eastern 4 out of 28 teams or 25%
Centrals 3 out of 28 teams or 25%

In the sum up

Sturt - still just out in front on Forestville, but only just. Boys are dominant. Sturt girls doing better than Forestville boys.

Forestville - maybe their best year to date. Could argue they are in front of Sturt after State Champs. Girls are dominant but boys are not up to it.

Norwood - have certainly dropped back to the pack. Good results in higher age group boys. Maybe the country injection will move them back away from the rest.

North - Improved at U10 boys level. Good for the future. Girls need a similar syimulus because outside of 16 girls are really struggling.

Southern - Down a bit on last year, will be interesting which direction it is heading. Sounds of a club dividing itself and results reflect that.

South - Opposite to North in that it has good results in U10 girls numbers. Other than that U10 boys is the only bright spot. But at least that is somewhere to start.

West - Already seen on here that they are struggling. Not sure that the Magic merger, or player intake really helped. Girls have some strong groups.

Woodville - Opposite to West. Good boys results, but girls are struggling.

Eastern - under perform dueto a lack of numbers. And boys arent really close. But some strong girls groups in 16's and 18's.

Centrals - for all the talk of strong coaching groups and development. Will the exodus send them under now without the country kids. Where will their teams come from?

Topic #29177 | Report this topic


Anonymous  
Years ago

Your system makes no sense. Appreciate the effort but it means nothing.

Reply #377352 | Report this post


Statsman  
Years ago

Performance can be measured by variation around the mean results. A mean and standard deviation can be determined per division and then the performance measured by the number of standard deviations from the mean result. It is the best way to statistically compare distributions with different means.

For U12 to U18 Boys Div 1, the results on a game by game basis can be looked at and the club's overall performance measured. The table below summarises the performance of the Div 1 Boys teams and the number are the number of standard deviations away from average performance. In offense a good number is positive, in defense a good number is negative

Club; Offensive; Defensive; Overall
Sturt Sabres, 1.05, (1.17), 2.22
Forestville Eagles, 0.06, (0.77), 0.82
Norwood Flames, 0.41, (0.38), 0.79
Southern Tigers, 0.27, (0.42), 0.70
Eastern Mavericks, 0.00, (0.13), 0.13
Central Districts Lions, 0.35, 0.51, (0.16)
Woodville Warriors, (0.17), 0.31, (0.48)
North Adelaide Rockets, (0.04), 0.75, (0.79)
South Adelaide Panthers, (0.81), 0.59, (1.39)
West Adelaide Bearcats, (1.13), 0.67, (1.80)

Reply #377360 | Report this post


Statsman  
Years ago

For Div 2 U12 to U18;

Sturt Sabres, 1.00, (1.04), 2.04
Forestville Eagles, 0.95, (0.83), 1.78
Norwood Flames, 0.13, (0.06), 0.20
Southern Tigers, 0.03, (0.03), 0.06
North Adelaide Rockets, 0.36, 0.38, (0.02)
South Adelaide Panthers, (0.49), (0.10), (0.39)
Eastern Mavericks, (0.27), 0.35, (0.62)
Central Districts Lions, (0.69), 0.47, (1.16)
Woodville Warriors, (0.88) , 0.62, (1.50)
West Adelaide Bearcats, (1.03), 1.07, (2.10)

Reply #377362 | Report this post


anon,

Just trying to match what it would look like is we had a 3 grade comeptition where each club had a team in each grade. And then work out who would have teams in finals.

It is maybe a crude assessment at best I agree. But until BSA goes to a 10 team grade with 4 or 3 divisions we wont get a total reflection of club strength.

Looking at those Statsman, for the boys it is fairly consistant with numbers of teams in finals. The only difference is that that for both the numbers of teams a club puts into a competition has an effect over their end line result.

Reply #377383 | Report this post




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