Spursfan
Years ago

Why people are writing off Townsville?

Sorry to harp, but I can't help but feel you guys have it wrong.

The noise Townsville will make this season will put Maria Sharapova to shame, I tell you.

Townsville's problem was inconsistency, with Gill especially being almost bi-polar in the way he approached it game by game. No inconsistency with Ervin. Mims was taking minutes off Blanchfield and the likes, a waste of an import spot. Abney makes the team so much more balanced because they now have four bigs. They have the same core, even thought it's going to be "Gary's team", it's the same guys and they are all quality players.

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Hendo8888  
Years ago

To be fair, most people were writing off Townsville when Withers and Forte were still on board. And when they were thinking of replacing Withers with Pennisi/Osborn.
Having signed Abney and Ervin, they now have enough talent to compete. Cedar and Norton aren't as exposed as they were when Forte was around (ie. a small forward being asked to play as a point guard). They aren't as reliant as they looked like they were going to be on Allen. Now they at least have another good option if Allen spuds it up again or Hinder struggles.
I had written them off with the team they looked like having, now I think they could contest that 4-6 bracket, maybe 3 if Marty is up to his old tricks.

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skip  
Years ago

I think a lot hinges on Allen. If he doesn't perform (which I have doubts about), I think they will struggle against bigger teams.

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Isaac  
Years ago

I think after Ervin and Crawford, the talent drops away a bit and the front court is probably one of the weaker ones in the league? A few other teams are stronger this year as well.

NZ and Perth, even having lost a couple of players, have legitimate rights to favouritism. After that, Adelaide are probably the best improvers on paper.

Sydney and Melbourne are looking like they'll finish at the bottom end and few are arguing against that.

Leaves the Hawks, Crocs and Taipans. Fearne always works magic with the Taipans and Tragardh will be reinvigorated after losing interest at Melbourne. Wollongong are probably susceptible to injury, but they've lost Campbell and two dud imports while adding two new imports (including a top five scorer from last year) and having a strong pre-season. I don't think Deleon has had many good games for them yet?

Whichever of the three was listed as sixth would raise disgruntled fans.

At this point, the Crocs' list is unproven. If Ervin plays like his MVP year and Abney isn't old and overweight and Allen fires and Blanchfield lifts, etc.

Pre-season is the time for youngsters to shine. Was Blanchfield injured during the Blitz?

vs Tigers - 2 points, 1/4 FG
vs Hawks - 0 points, 0/2 FG
vs Breakers - 0 points, 0/3 FG

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Mick  
Years ago

Front court one of the weakest in the league, hmm...

Try grabbing a rebound against a front court of Larry Abney, Jacob Holmes, Russell Hinder, and the alien-life-form that is now inhabiting Ben Allen's body and rate it again. You have three guys who can easily grab ten-plus rebounds on any given night, and Russell Hinder, who can still eat the glass at a decent rate if he puts his mind to it.

You are effectively replacing Schensher with three new guys because:

- Larry Abney is new to the roster
- Russell Hinder was out last year (and early reports state he is better than when he went down. He looked worn out and OOOLD before the injury. He looks refreshed after a year off)
- The whole Ben Allen alien-life-form situation

Ben Allen ALONE has dwarfed Luke Schenscher's production in the pre-season, so even he gets half those numbers come the real gametime, those three guys together will replace Schensh and THEN some.

Schensh's kickout passing is world-class, and won't be replaced, but every other facet of his game will be more than made up for. Schensch couldn't score at the rim against even slight pressure. It was really frustrating to watch a well-executed play spoiled by a missed open Schenscher layup or botched dunk attempt. He can only score in an almost-unheard-of three foot band that starts at five feet out and ends at eight feet out.

Don't get me wrong, he is a great player, but with his highly unique skillset comes some very unique flaws. He could score (unstoppably, even) when his hook was falling, but he was a terrible finisher at the rim when his touch wasn't there.

Hinder, alien-life-force Ben Allen, and Abney can all finish inside through contact, and can all step out and hit the fifteen footer. Allen and Hinder can both stroke it from three too; Hinder shot 41% from there last season he was active. Even Abney can knock down the occasional three if the defense isn't playing him honest. Schenscher, in comparison, had a horrible jumpshot, and I always wondered why a guy with such a nice, soft touch on his hook couldn't develop even the most basic jumper.

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Spursfan  
Years ago

Although Townsville ran a lot of stuff through Schensch, he was well overrated. You just had to watch two minutes of him being on the floor to know a 50 year old Shaq with a broken leg could blow by him, way too slow. That's the problem I think Adelaide might face with Johnson and Schenscher on the floor at the same time - defensive rotation/help defense speed/reactions.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Huge talent drop from Ervin and Crawford to the rest of the pack in that roster. Hinder is done, Allen is completely unreliable, and thatll about do it. May push the 4th spot and be knocked out first round.

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skip  
Years ago

Mick - Re Hinder. I Think you might be confusing 'Had a shave' with 'Refreshed'

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Isaac  
Years ago

rate it again
Do I rate Allen getting the ball all of a sudden, Hinder back from the dead, Holmes with a newborn and Abney at 35 higher than:

Knight, Redhage, Wagstaff, a peanut - nope
Pledger, Hudson, Vukona, Boucher - nope
Schenscher, Johnson, Petrie, Weigh - nope
Loughton, Tragardh, Rychart, Edwards - nope
Burston, Ballinger, Scott, Greer - if they're all healthy, probably not
Davidson, Forman, Gruber - depends, probably on paper
Crosswhite, Lazare, Garlepp, Dann - yes

Given that only two are going to be on court at once, does that favour the Crocs when matching up on Crosswhite and Lazare? Not really.

Hawks against Townsville had 25 points from Jackson and MacMillan! Won by 20. Won points in the paint despite missing Davidson and while Forman and Gruber combined for just 13.

Guys like Vukona, Boucher, Petrie, the Wildcats and Greer all bring intangibles that I'm not sure any frontcourt Croc does besides possibly Holmes.

Look, I'm always wrong on the Crocs so consider this a reverse jinx, but I don't think that's a strong frontcourt. Before this or last off-season, most of those guys wouldn't have picked up NBL jobs in a hurry. Allen was barely retained by even Townsville until Schensch moved. As good as his rebounding and basketball smarts are, Holmes was unemployed until Hinder and/or Schensch went down last year. Abney hasn't been in the league for a few years. Who else on my list above would be unemployed if their team cut them in an off-season? Dann? I reckon Garlepp would take a Vasiljevic/McMillian-type spot. Greer might retire and play ABL level.

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Mick  
Years ago

Holmes is the best rebounder in the league now that Kazzouh is gone, either pound-for-pound or outright. The fact that he was unemployed last offseason is a complete red-herring and bears no relevance to his value. It was more a case of every team filling their roster and then Adelaide making that call.

Townsville will have one of the best rebounding front-courts in the league this coming year, if not the best.

Moreover, with Neville and Kazzouh gone, the list of starting calibre 7 (or near 7) footers who can play in the post has diminished down to basically Schenscher and potentially Alex Pledger. I think that opens the door even wider for Ben Allen to find some form. All the other post players are either undersized or stretch bigs.

Most teams are going with two PFs in their starting lineups this year instead of a center. What made Perth and NZ so dangerous last year, however, was their ability to switch between small ball and a traditional lineup (with a seven footer) throughout a game without suffering a drop-off in skill level.

Knight, Redhage, Wagstaff, a peanut - this lineup is great, and proven, but will it have the same effect when it's all small ball all the time? Will Matt Knight be healthy? Neville didn't provide as much as people wanted from him, but he did provide legitimite size, and with it, a completely different look to throw at an opponent. Perth will be easier to scout now without that Neville option. None of these guys is a true C.

Pledger, Hudson, Vukona, Boucher - The offense won't be as easy without Wilkinson, but this is still a nice frontcourt that can play both ends of the floor.

Schenscher, Johnson, Petrie, Weigh - Great on paper. But the jury is out - can Marty maximise the production or will he continue to put lineups on the floor that baffle the mind? Defense is a huge question mark when Schensh and DJ are on the floor at the same time. So is rebounding. They can both score though. Has the potential to be great.

Loughton, Tragardh, Rychart, Edwards - Hard to rate until we know how Trigger fits in defensively. Lots of potential. No true C on the roster, though.

Burston, Ballinger, Scott, Greer - They won't be healthy. Even if they are, Townsville is better.

Davidson, Forman, Gruber - These guys will play hard all the time and have their nights but they are undersized and there isn't much offense here outside of The Big O. Townsville is better.

Crosswhite, Lazare, Garlepp, Dann - I read: Crosswhite, Lazare, then nobody. Great starters, but no depth whatsoever. What happens when Crosswhite or Lazare pick up those quick two fouls in the first quarter? Crosswhite loves to foul, and we all know how import bigs usually get whistled early in their NBL careers...

Look, Townsville aren't world beaters by any stretch in that department, but they will have at least one potential rebounding monster on the court at all times, and will be able to mix it up inside better than they did last year.

I don't think you could call their front-court weak.

Which is nice to know when you have the best backcourt this side of Perth.


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Anonymous  
Years ago

Like I said Townsville Won't make finals,put this message up and see who is talking.Adelaide be ahead of Townsville no doubt

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Isaac  
Years ago

Ah Mick, that's optimistic. Very easy to put things your way when you look at the advantages of one team but only the disadvantages of another. One Allen pre-season and you're gushing. You talk up playing sans-C, then criticise teams without centres. You're assured that Melbourne won't stay healthy, but Hinder is coming back from a year off and Abney isn't young.

Teams hadn't filled rosters when Holmes was still available. Wollongong, at the very least, considered him and declined.

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KingJames  
Years ago

I think we can all agree that Townsville if they play well this season have a chance of making the top 4. The top 2 places I don't think they have a chance of making.

They probably have the best Backcourt in the league with Ervin and Crawford. Regardless of some great rebounders I also think they have one of the worst front courts in the league as well as not many scorers.

Scorers = Ervin, Crawford

Average Scorers =

Holmes with less time this year due to Hinder and Abney will not be as effective

Abney - Relies on his Athleticism and now that he is older will he still have that? Also one of the worst foul shooters in the league

Hinder - another year older

Allen - did well in the Preseason but still needs to do that during the normal season when the pressure will be on

Blanchfield - Still not reaching his potential.

Cedars - On the decline and will get less of a chance to shoot it with Ervin in the team

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Isaac  
Years ago

I think Perth's backcourt is superior - Martin and Lisch are top-tier players - but Townsville probably have the rest beaten.

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Mick  
Years ago

Allen is a question mark, obviously, and I'm not gushing on him. I'm as cautious as any that he can fall back down to earth come game time.

My main point is that two of the issues with last year's front court -- finishing at the rim, and rebounding, have been addressed somewhat. With Gary Ervin you are going to need guys who can catch inside and put it in the basket straight away off drive-and-hand-offs. Schenscher couldn't do that, and Holmes can't either. With that, comes the caveat -- Holmes, Hinder, and Abney don't have post games. They can only really score efficiently inside off an assist, as opposed to someone like Schenscher who can post up and create out of nothing, even if he couldn't finish at the rim. Ben Allen has showed flashes but, yes, he is entirely unproven.

I was one of the people saying that Hinder was done before he went down, but now he will be the last big off the bench, which is where he honestly should have been for the last couple of years. It's a perfect role for him.

Perth's backcourt is better because they are proven and can play two ways, but I think Ervin will eat up Perth's trapping and backcourt two-hand holding defense and render the defensive advantage moot.

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Isaac  
Years ago

Mick, Perth just shredded NZ and an MVP candidate import guard. And without Robbins. Doubt they're scared of Townsville. When Ervin tires, a kid comes in. Perth have four guys who are relentless on D in the backcourt.

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paul  
Years ago

Ervin played two games against Perth and had 17p on 5/19, 4a and 4to; then 14p on 5/13, 3a and 0to. The Hawks won easily at home in the second but lost a close one away largely due to Ervin taking 19 shots on a poor night from memory, although in fairness Rhys Martin was out so he had to play big minutes.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

A lot of this is a bit of 'looking through rose coloured glasses' - it's human nature to be a little biased towards the team you love, especially in the preseason. You can only see the positives and until we see them negatives on the floor, they are somewhat blind to you.

I think Adelaide are a little over valued by some locals here and I know Townsville are over valued by a few people there too. It might come down to these 2 teams for 4th spot, even a 3 way race with Cairns for 3, 4 & 5. (Perth & NZ look better than the pack atm)

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Mick  
Years ago

Perth aren't scared of anybody because they're a proven entity right now. But that same NZ team just came off a series victory against that backcourt, with Robbins. Perth will always start strong because they've been together for years. They will look more vulnerable as the season wears on, as history has proven. Everyone else will be playing catch up for a while.

Perth play pressure defense that to be honest is completely illegal at times (two hands holding onto the body of the guard in the backcourt incessantly), but even if they cleaned that up they would still be great because of the constant pressure & effort even through substitutions.

I think there is a point where trapping and overplaying the backcourt starts to lose its effectiveness (nobody traps or overplays the backcourt in the NBA, for example, because the ballhandlers are too good and it would leave the defense torn wide open when the trap is broken / guy is beaten).

Ervin could rip straight through their backcourt if he plays it the right way. It's only a matter of time before Perth have to play D a little more honest, and I think with all the great PGs in the league now, along with the cumulative scouting of Perth for the last couple of years, there will be a tipping point where they have to adjust their defense somewhat. Until that happens, though, it's obviously just a hypothesis. But the life span of such a backcourt-focused defense is normally not this long in a professional league...

I am under no misconceptions about where Townsville stands, even as a homer: they are in the mix for the third and fourth spots in the playoffs, along with Adelaide and Cairns. Perth and NZ are a class above everyone else until proven otherwise. I still maintain that Perth have lost a bit of diversity without Neville, and playing small ball all game all season long will take its toll.

Adelaide, Cairns and Townsville have way too many question marks right now -- I rank them all as equals. Anyone who doesn't isn't looking at the questions:

Townsville - Question marks at starting SF and C. Young PGs off the bench. Mick Cedar's plateau in improvement. Abney's and Hinder's age. No SF on the bench. Still, proven core that has got it done before.

Cairns - Can they still play D with this roster? If not, can they score enough points so it won't matter?

Adelaide - Defense? Coaching staff do not have a great track record in terms of in-game management, and that's putting it lightly. Will the right guys be on the floor, in the right combinations? Great team on paper.

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paul  
Years ago

I think you are greatly underestimating Perth's defence Mick, but certainly the Crocs frontcourt did your earlier case no harm tonight.

Allen, Holmes and Hinder combined for 40 points and 25 boards compared to 29 and 16 for Loughton, Tragardh and Edwards. Even take out Edwards low output and the starters still outscored and outboarded Cairns' starters although at lower efficiency.

Get Abney in as the fourth wheel and Ervin to take the pressure off Norton and the Crocs have some good pieces.

After tonight, I think the Cedars are prob the ones to drop to the end of the bench. Norton off the bench but to play plenty of minutes.

Allen 25/ Hinder 15
Holmes 25 / Abney 15
Crawford 30 / Blanchfield 25
Ervin 30 / M Cedar 5-10
Norton 20 / C Cedar 5-10

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Paul, I reckon your statement was correct.. drop Norton to the bench & you're about right.

Allen 25/Hinder 15
Holmes 20/Abney 20
Blanchfield 25/Crawford 10/Holmes 5
Crawford 20/M Cedar 10/Norton 10
Ervin 30/Norton 10

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paul  
Years ago

Yeah, I had him on the line I did for positional purposes, rather than to say he was starting.

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Mick  
Years ago

Like your lineup spreads above. Holmes is usually Woolpert's leading minutes-getter. He's normally in the mid thirties every game. I haven't seen the Crocs ever use Holmes as a 3 man, but he used to play there in Adelaide and at South. He has only been used as a 4 or 5 in Townsville.

Unfortunately, the Crocs really only have room for either Chris Cedar or Mitch Norton. They are both great guys who can run a team and play D, and are both locals, which is a shame. If Chris could just fix his ugly shot he would be a fantastic young player.

Strictly basketball-speaking though, even though it pains me to say it, the Crocs would be better off with another bigger wing off the bench.

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Ingles13  
Years ago

lol 0-7

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Anonymous  
Years ago

This is my new favourite thread.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Q: Why people are writing off Townsville?

A: People are smarter than you.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Paul Allen is a Bust, Adney too, Holmes injured, Cedars why bother. Ervin ahs proved his MVP ability was lacking in ther last game.
Allen 25!!!frikkkin funny
Rusty was rusted ages ago and after last season injury they should have retired him. Talk thats all hes good for quotes that journos like. Crawford a good player, but in NBL terms average. Undoubtedly plays hard but if the games on the line he wont get the job done.
0-7 says it all. The Coach is more of the problem than anything else as is the Board and the CEO.
Crocs will go close to having their worst season ever.
Look at the draw, when will they get their next win.

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