Earlier this year
Breakers @ Crocs, Fri 11 Jan
Crocs are without Jacob Holmes, but Hinder has stepped up big time since he went down.
Ervin generally gets the better of Cedric Jackson, but the Breakers are soooo much deeper than the Crocs at every position.
This will be Townsville's first test against a top four side since their five game win streak began, while the Breakers are on a winning tear of their own right now.
If the Breakers can take advantage of the Crocs' rotations, they can wrap this one up in the first half. The key to beating Townsville is piling on the points when their absolutely atrocious second unit comes on the floor, and putting the game out of reach in those couple of minutes while their starters rest.
Townsville win if they get "over and above" production from one or more of their role players; New Zealand win if they play a half-decent game and no one from Townsville steps up except for the usual leaders (ie. Ervin and Nevill).
Interesting stat: Ben Allen has averaged just 3 minutes per game and 0.6 ppg on the Crocodiles winning streak, compared to closer to 20 mpg on their ten game losing streak. So if you can force the Crocs to play him you have a pretty good chance of beating them.