Great thread, will read again

Not even sure what OP is getting at.

Reality is, coaching deficiencies or not, Wollongong have lost a near-impossible-to-replace Australian guard and opened the door for a team in the bottom four to make a run. That said, they are still reasonably dangerous and haven't been blown out in regulation in any games.

Adelaide have played a few more games than some opponents and have a lot of road games to come though. But it's not as though Cairns or Melbourne are particularly convincing either.

Wollongong are at risk of tumbling out of the 4, and Sydney are no guarantee either.

Sydney run home:

15 18/01/13 (Fri) V Melbourne Tigers
16 24/01/13 (Thu) @ New Zealand Breakers (L)
17 02/02/13 (Sat) @ Townsville Crocodiles
18 09/02/13 (Sat) V New Zealand Breakers (L)
19 15/02/13 (Fri) V Cairns Taipans
20 24/02/13 (Sun) V Perth Wildcats (L)
21 03/03/13 (Sun) V Townsville Crocodiles
22 08/03/13 (Fri) @ Perth Wildcats (L)
23 15/03/13 (Fri) @ Wollongong Hawks
24 22/03/13 (Fri) V Townsville Crocodiles

Need to bag 6 of those games to make finals. A fairly good run home, but assuming they drop their games to the Breakers and 'Cats, they could end up 13 & 15.

'Gong run home:

15 17/01/13 (Thu) @ New Zealand Breakers (L)
19/01/13 (Sat) @ Townsville Crocodiles (L)
16 26/01/13 (Sat) V New Zealand Breakers (L)
17 01/02/13 (Fri) @ Adelaide 36ers
03/02/13 (Sun) @ Perth Wildcats (L)
18 08/02/13 (Fri) V Melbourne Tigers
19 15/02/13 (Fri) @ New Zealand Breakers (L)
17/02/13 (Sun) V Townsville Crocodiles
20 22/02/13 (Fri) V Adelaide 36ers
21 02/03/13 (Sat) @ Melbourne Tigers
22 09/03/13 (Sat) @ Townsville Crocodiles
23 15/03/13 (Fri) V Sydney Kings
24 23/03/13 (Sat) V Adelaide 36ers

Looking for 7 wins. Key games will be on 1/2/13 against the Sixers - Wollongong likely to have dropped 3 in a row and on the doomsday double. The Tigers game in R18 and the two home games against the Sixers will decide their season. R23 will be a crackerjack game. They could tumble to 12 & 16 if they are not careful.

With Perth and Breakers so dominant, could a team with 13 wins and the split sneak into the 4?

Hawks injury news makes Townsville choking away a gimme at home against the breakers even harder to swallow...