PeterJohn
Years ago

Does 36ers' offence stagnate in the last quarter?

I've seen the 36ers' games that have been on TV this year and it's been great to watch them playing so well and winning. The one thing I've been concerned about is the sense I got that the team's offence stagnates in fourth quarters. I haven't analysed this but each game I've seen, I've been left feeling that the running, flowing offence that got them in front disappears in the last quarter. Other people have touched on it on this forum, usually commenting on the ball being dribbled around the top of the key on every offence. It's usually sheeted to Ervin wanting to make the play but I get the sense that the other players tend to move less on offence in that last quarter.

This seemed to happen in the win against Perth so I checked the shooting stats. In the first 3 quarters, the 36ers shot 29 of 59 from the field - 12 of 20 in the third quarter alone. In the last quarter, they shot 4 of 11. i.e., about half the number of shots expected, based on their first three quarters and at a lower percentage.

So while the 36ers are managing to win these close games, are we vulnerable to giving up leads by changing our offensive game in the last quarter and playing not to lose instead of to win? Or am I imagining it?

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Isaac  
Years ago

Nine games so far. Here's the scoring by quarter. Doesn't really say much about the offence itself, but just in case it's useful:

@PER 22, 19, 17, 22 (won last quarter 22-20) - loss
WOL 25, 24, 28, 20 (lost last 20-22)
@CNS 15, 30, 10, 32 (won last 32-18)
@MEL 16, 18, 22, 23 (lost last 23-34) - loss
@NZB 30, 21, 20, 25 (lost last 25-27)
SYD 25, 24, 17, 31 (won last 31-22)
MEL 22, 31, 22, 15 (lost last 15-21)
NZB 22, 28, 16, 29 (won last 29-21)
PER 25, 26, 23, 17 (lost last 17-26)

Maybe shifting from the run and gun is a conscious decision to play a safer game and protect a lead?

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Camel 31  
Years ago

Maher did say it was happening at Fridays game
'36ers offense should be more than just Ervin at the top of the key'
I'd say we miss Frye in the fourths right now.

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Jack Toft  
Years ago

It is not the fourth, it is the second half, but not by much.

The Sixers are out of the box quickly and in the first half score 47 pts (sd 6.1) and in the second half have averaged 43.2 (sd 3.9). Only 1 game have they scored more in the second half, but only because they had their worst first half.

Statistically, the third quarter is their worst quarter only averaging 19.4 points (vs 22.6 for all quarters). The Sixers average 23.8 ppg in the 4th, opponents 23.4 ppt in the 4th. The Sixers average 22.4 and 24.6 ppt in the 1st and 2nd.

I would propose that a 3rd quarter drop off is more to do with opposition coaches changing their tactics at half time and Joey running with the offence/defence for a play or two longer than he should.

Isaac, can you have a look at the 3rd quarters and see how many the Sixers have won? Can you split the quarter into say the first 5 mins, then the second 5 minutes? If my theory is correct, I think you find the Sixers are averaging 8.2 pts in the first 5 minutes of the 3rd, then 11.4 pts in the next 5 minutes.

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Tornado  
Years ago

I think in the game against Perth, when they were coming back we reverted to a stagnant offense because we were trying to use the clock to our advantage and stem the tide of the Wildcats offense - much like Cairns a few seasons back.

I dont like it personally but hey, we're winning with it so why fix something thats not broken?

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Jack Toft  
Years ago

Just had a quick look at the play by plays for the 9 games for the 3rd quarters.

In the first 5 mins of the 3rd: Ave 8.1 ppg (16.2 p/qtr or 65 ppg)
In the last 5 mins of the 3rd: Ave 11.3 ppg (22.6 p/qtr or 91 ppg)

Rather than the offence stagnating in the fourth quarter, it could be a control thing. I think if the Sixers need to improve it is the first 5 mins after half time. The opposition coach could be better at winding up their troops to come out hard then Joey compensates. Could be a mindset thing if they are up too far possibly take the foot off a little bit? One too many orange pieces? Does Jazzy need to ration them?

Perhaps the Sixers need to get ASIO in to bug the opposition change rooms or the mobile phone of the opposition coach?

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Ballin Fan  
Years ago

Good coaches preach that one of the best ways to protect a lead is to use the clock to get to the foul line.

If the 36ers field goal attempts were not lower in the last quarter then i would be worried.

Are they outscoring their opponents in the last quarter?

Are they protecting their leads?

Are they doing all of the above using the pick and roll from the top....

Hell Yeah !

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Ballin Fan  
Years ago

Aint nothing wrong with static play

if it gets you there at the end of the day.

Maher built a career doing it.

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skud  
Years ago

One thing I noticed last Friday is that Gibson looked absolutely exhausted during the 4th quarter. His performance was still good, but he looked as if he had slowed down from the first half.
I wonder if this is more of a going out so strong and not being able to maintain the pace the entire game. The way they have dominated teams is by running the court. This would also explain why Wright is using Trey's in the line up when he is not bringing much at all except a chance for someone to rest.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Joey did the same thing with the Bullets when they had large leads. Although it was more polished over there with the Sixers they are still gelling so it is harder to execute this style.

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PeterJohn  
Years ago

I like your 3rd quarter summary Jack

Skud - I noticed there seemed not to be a lot of player rotations in the fourth against Perth but haven't compared it with rest of game. Gibson may have played all of the fourth?

Good point above re Frye being off the court in that second half. Would have given more scope for player rotation and another offensive option. Maybe it was just tired players and using the clock in the fourth.

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KET  
Years ago

36ers have always sucked in the third quarters, it's nothing new...

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Anonymous  
Years ago

I've taken the 2nd half dropaways/fadeouts as purely the players being buggered from Joey's demanding coaching style run & gun with tight D in the first half where they go hammer & tongs.

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KET  
Years ago

Even when the 36ers had brilliant teams, they still had atrocious third quarters, particularly the first half of the third quarter. Then they might rally to get their act together by the time the three quarter time buzzer sounds. Fourth quarter becomes a close game with the game being decided in the final few plays.

I'm pretty sure the 36ers one season set a record for consecutive games decided under 3 points...

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Jackie  
Years ago

It's so nice to be concerned about how they're winning instead of railing about how they're losing though

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KET  
Years ago

It's like back to the glory days, only no Maher...

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Beantown  
Years ago

I actually think the biggest reason we 'stagnated' in the 4th quarter last weekend was Perth's great defence.

They shut down our fast breaks, disrupted most of the pick n rolls Ervin was trying to run and made it very hard to get DJ the ball in a good scoring position.

Overall though, Jack's stats show that we've only really had three 'bad' last quarters: last week against Perth and both Melbourne games. And only two of them were bad offensively. The other one we just got blown out of the water by some great shooting from Goulding and Balls.

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