NotJackToft
Years ago

SA SBL - Semi Final Preview

Well contenders from the pretenders have been sorted out, and we are now into the business end of the season.

First Semi Final - Elimination
North Adelaide Rockets (3rd 13-5) v South Adelaide Panthers (4th 13-5)

The Rockets are coming off a tough 5 point loss to the Sabres in their first qualifying final, unable to capitalise on the opportunity to face the Flames this week for a ticket straight into the grand final. Instead they face the Panthers, who cleaned the floor with the Eagles in their sudden death elimination final, in a polished and impressive performance, even without gun centre Ashleigh Spencer.

In their Round 8 clash, the Panthers were considerably under strength compared to the unit that will be on the floor saturday night, as the Rockets came from behind at the half time break to run away with a 9 point victory, making 49% of the field goal attempts. Janae Howard had 28 points, 7 rebounds and 3 blocks but managing to only convert 10 from 26 from the field. Jess Mahony was quiet by her standards with 11 points and 6 assists. Jo Hill was a handful with 28 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals whilst Jamie-Lee Peris was also down on her season production with 11 points and 9 rebounds.

Fast-forward to Round 17, and the Rockets secured an 18 point victory, but this time against a full strength South line up. North led from the opening tip to the final siren, shooting at an impressive 43% from the field, good enough for 10% more than the Panthers. Janae Howard was kept to 13 points, but managed to pull 13 rebounds, whilst the Nagy sisters combined for 19 points and 17 rebounds. Jo Hill was exceptional again with 21 points and 13 rebounds, to go with 3 assists and 3 steals. Jamie-Lee Peris enjoyed a better night out with 15 points and 12 rebounds in a foul-limited 26 minutes.

North's best avenue for success lies with veteran captain Jo Hill. Hill must put up 25+ points and play 30+ minutes for the Rockets to stand a chance, and if she finds herself in foul trouble early South will have a significant advantage. Jamie-Lee Peris needs to equal her season production of 12ppg and 10ppg, but like Hill she must play 30+ minutes to ensure that the Rockets remain defensively sound.

South have what it takes to beat every side in the league when they perform like they did against the Eagles last week, and will need to replicate that form to down the Rockets on Saturday night. Jess Mahony has been in stellar form the past month, putting up near double doubles each game, missing out only against Saturday nights foe, North in Round 17. Mahony must fire, and must look to get to the rack and shoot more than she has this season. Howard must remain aggressive, however look to distribute and not force her looks.

An extremely difficult game to tip a winner, with North holding the season advantage, both teams relatively equal on experience, and both sides in similar form. Based on season form, and North’s ability to stop Mahony from having a significant impact, I think the Rockets take the game by single digits.

North by 8.







Second Semi-Final - Qualifying
Norwood Flames (1st 16-2) v Sturt Sabres (2nd 15-3)

The two best sides in the women’s league are set to face off for a ticket to this years Grand Final this Saturday night at MARS. Norwood have had a week off and sent the scouts out to Pasadena last week to watch the Sabres rout the Rockets by 5 points in a tough contest, but as history has shown the week off, doesn’t necessarily equate to an advantage.

These two sides first met in Round 1, as the Sabres sported a significantly different outfit than they will this weekend, star duo Angela Marino and ex-WNBA recruit Natalie Novosel. The Flames demolished the Sabres by 36 points with ease, as no Norwood player suited for more than 26 minutes of game time, and all but one player registering a score. Amy Lewis top scored with 14 points, whilst Kelsey Ireland had 13 points and 5 rebounds. For Sturt, Hannah Richards was the only player to make an impact, with 11 points and 8 rebounds.

They met again in Round 10, as the Sabres beat the streak, handing the Flames their first loss in 30 outings. The game was forced into overtime as Norwood fought back from a 6 point defect at the start of the last period. All it took was one missed free throw by the Flames to hand the Sabres a 1 point victory. In that game Amy Lewis had another quality night out with 25 points, 4 assists and 4 rebounds, Cara Boothey had 24 points, and Jessica Good had 12 points and 14 rebounds. However it must be noted that Norwood were without star Jess Foley. The Sabres found production from Natalie Novosel with 34 points, 8 assists and 11 rebounds in a full 45 minutes of game time, whilst Lucy Spalding and Hannah Richards combined for 30 points, 11 rebounds and 7 blocks.

The question is whether or not the Flames feel vulnerable against the side that was able to defeat them in a time that no other could. Norwood’s success lies in stopping Natalie Novosel, and restricting Angela Marino from getting good looks and forcing her into bad looks. Norwood have offensive firepower for days, and multiple players who can go off any given night. It all comes down to defence for the Flames, and if they can execute effectively, they stand a good chance to see the grand final.

Sturt have shown they are serious contenders, storming their way up the ladder on the back of some quality recruits. But this challenge will be unlike any they have faced all year, against a full strength, experienced and intelligent Norwood outfit. Novosel will be covered like a rash, and it will require some smart coaching to work her off the ball and open some spaces and opportunities for other players to be effective. The key lies with Hannah Richards, and this young guns ability to outplay Rachael Herrick. If Richards has a big night out, it will go along way to deciding the outcome.

Lastly, the whistle. Expect both coaches to be going hard at the referees, pleading their case, based on what is considered legal and illegal defence off the ball, more than likely when the Sabres are in offence and the Flames in defence.

Another hard game to tip, but going against the Flames is always a dangerous choice. I think Norwood will get the win, but I feel like this won’t be their last meeting this year.


Norwood by 11.







Men’s Semi-Final 1 – Elimination
Central District Lions (3rd 12-6) v West Adelaide Bearcats (4th 11-7)

The Bearcats turned around recent history last weekend, as they downed the Eagles in their elimination final, bucking the trend of Forestville having the finals wood on West. Centrals suffered a demoralising loss last week to the Flames last week, as they now face the uphill task of making the Grand Final.

The first meeting of these two sides came in Round 6, with the Lions putting together a big third quarter to secure a 12 point victory. In that game Centrals lit up the Port Adelaide nets, converting 14 of 30 three point attempts for 46% and 42% from the field. Kyle Miller had 19 points, 10 assists and 5 rebounds, Jordan Centernera scored 19 points including 5 of 8 from deep, and Chris Clausen had 18 points and 8 rebounds. For West, Jason Dawson landed 24 points and 5 assists, whilst Blake Truslove had 19 points, 15 rebounds and 4 assists.

Round 15 saw the return match up, but the same result, as the Lions ran away with a 22 point win on the back of a 64 point first half. Again Centrals shot the ball at and stellar clip, going 47% from the field, and 43% from deep. West had trouble guarding the Lions floor spacing as they found may open looks against the bolstered West side, including star ex-36er Daniel Johnson. Chris Clausen was huge for Centrals with 33 points and 10 rebounds, Daniel Carlin had 16 points and 9 rebounds, and Kyle Miller had 17 points, 5 rebounds and 11 assists. West Adelaide found production from Kurtis Phillips with 19 points and 5 rebounds, and Jason Dawson had 10 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists.

West have the finals experience that the Lions lack, and this experience will play a big factor in Saturday nights result. The key for the Bearcats is with import guard Jason Dawson, and how he can run the offence whilst shooting at a good clip. Dawson torched the Eagles last week, and will need to replicate this form against the Lions. Blake Truslove is also crucial to West’s successes, as he needs to play a big and long game, matching up against Clausen and Carlin inside. Finally West must find a way to combat the Lions floor spacing, ensuring they are getting a hand to the shooters and restricting Millers penetration.

Centrals need to move the ball, and expose the same deficiencies that West showed earlier this year. They have proved with good movement and good looks they are lethal from range, and will need to convert at a good clip from deep to counteract West’s ability to score inside. Miller needs a big game at both ends of the floor, whilst Clausen needs to be effective to draw defenders to him to open up options.

Not surprisingly another difficult game to tip. West won their first 2 games against other top five opponents this season, but lost their last 6 against other finals contenders with the exception of Forestville last week. The Lions went 3 and 5 against top five opponents, however are in slightly better form that the Bearcats. Based on season form alone, I am tipping the Lions to move on to the preliminary final.

Centrals by 6.







Men’s Semi Final 2 - Qualifying
Woodville Warriors (1st 14-4) v Norwood Flames (2nd 14-4)

The Warrior men have had a week off to refresh their bodies, fine tune their game and scout the Flames last week, as Norwood downed the Lions. The winners of this game earn themselves a spot straight through to the Grand Final.

Woodville held the split at the end of the season, earning themselves the tag of Minor Premiers. In Round 8, the Flames put on a first half clinic, jumping out to a 20 point first half lead. The Warriors chipped away at the lead in the second half but couldn’t close the gap. The difference in the game was Norwood’s ability from long range, converting at 37% for the night. Matthew Lycett was the Flames best, as he went for 22 points and 6 rebounds to go with 4 assists, and guard Andrew Webber had 19 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists and 5 steals as he made 11 of 11 free throws. Alexander Starling was the Warriors best with 24 points and 15 rebounds, whilst ex-Warriors Daniel Sims had 20 points.

The return clash occurred in Round 17 as the Flames were riding a 10 game win streak, and the minor premiership on the line. Woodville demolished the Flames by 33 points, including a 52-20 second half, as they shot the lights out for a 50% field goal clip and 43% from deep. Again Alexander Starling was exceptional as he scored 26 points and 11 rebounds in only 26 minutes, and Cam Wilson had 10 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists. Matthew Lycett had a quiet night for the Flames with 12 points and 6 rebounds, whilst shooter Ian O’Boyle top scored with 17 points. Norwood couldn’t buy a bucket, or a free throw, giving up a whopping 25 fouls to 11 and 10 free throws to 31.

Woodville have had a tumultuous season off field, with coaching issues, player issues and president issues, however they have managed to continue to play good ball when it counts the most. The Warriors sport a good amount of experience in the likes of Wilson, Ng and Pilkington to go with the outstanding play of Starling. If Wilson can distribute well and get to the rack plus shut down the Flames guards, Ng can find good looks and use his length on the defensive end of the floor and Pilkington can crash the boards, the Warriors are very tough to beat.

Norwood have been the hottest team in the league in the back half of the season, and if they could have avoided the blemish and loss to the Warriors in Round 17, they would be hot favourites to win the title. Featuring some hardened finals players in the likes of Webber, Matthews, Krause, and ability of Lycett, makes this side a serious contender. Lycett is playing Friday night for the 36ers trial game against Melbourne United in Ballarat, so fatigue may be an issue for their gun.

I will go against the trend here, and say the Flames to win, based on recent finals experience and form.

Norwood by 14.

Topic #35126 | Report this topic


Nike  
Years ago

Referees for the weekend

Women:
North vs South - Vanessa Devlin & Nikki Ireland
Norwood vs Sturt- Michelle Dyson & James Griguol

Men:
Centrals vs West - Nathan Durant & Ian Domeika
Woodville vs Norwood - Andy Filmer & Nathan Wieland

Reply #488079 | Report this post


Jack Toft  
Years ago

Nice work.

North will have their hands full with South. To South fans they are the Panthers, to the Rockettes fans, they are the she-devils. South are in uncharted territory and this might get to them, North should win, but expect a possible upset on this game.

Rumour is no Foley? Sturt flick a switch from "bad" to "super-bad" in final series. A week of can sometimes hurt a team and with Sabres knocking off the Flames during the season, a Foley-less Flames might be in for a little shock! Norwood should win, but then again....

The game at Starplex is the biggest in a while. Don't know if they will do it, but a perfect opportunity to wheel out the old codgers from '84 at half time to inspire the Central District fans. Barring acts of God, the Lions should prevail.

Flames are hot, but Warriors have got their act together. This game will see more action than an Expendables film. Holding either team down will be harder than putting a feral cat into a brown paper bag. I think the Warriors will get up in this one, but only just.

Reply #488446 | Report this post


NotJackToft  
Years ago

Some quick results for tonight so far. Looks like we are in for a huge double header at MARS next Saturday night!

North 80 eliminated South 63
Sturt 67 d Norwood 65

Next week will see Flames V Rockets at MARS in the preliminary final

West 91 eliminated Centrals 76 by way of a huge 28-6 last quarter

Warriors 78 v Norwood 65 with 4 min to go in the last

Likely to see Flames v West at MARS in the preliminary final

Reply #488501 | Report this post


Anon  
Years ago

West look dangerous! 28-6 in the last quarter - 8 3's from Braithwaite and Phillips!

Reply #488509 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Why did Darren Ng play for Woodville?

Reply #488625 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Centrals should have saved there shooting touch for the games that actually count.

Reply #488628 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Darren Ng was sick so didn't suit up.

Reply #488642 | Report this post




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