Jonno
Years ago

Its not all doom and gloom for the 36ers IMO

With alot of negativity surrounding the 36ers roster, especially with other teams signing 'marquee'/stud imports, etc i thought id have a look and see where we stand, as i dont think it will be as bad as everyone thinks.

I encourage everyone to let it play out a little see how we play and the other teams before writing anyone off.

First of all we have the only current Boomer in the NBL in Gibson. Petrie also makes squads and isnt too far off the pace.

We have a top 2 coach, one of only 2 who has won a title, and proved to be very good last season.

We have good team chemistry and that should remain with us bringing 6 (7 if you include Daly who trained with us last season) from last season.

Dont get too negative over the stud imports for other clubs, remember Jonny Flyn, Sam Young never made the play offs, yes i know many others with NBA pedigree have ie Brooks and Mee. Sam Young and Jonny Flynn were basically the 2 biggest NBA signings in NBL history as far as games played in the NBA, but neither set the world on fire, both were good but they didnt make the playoffs, so lets see these other guys include Josh Childress on the court first, and the team chemistry etc before we crown them as champions. My guess is some will be studs, and the rest will be no better than a good NBL import ie Wilson.

Now to our roster

Starters

Wilson - decent import, put up very similar numbers to Ervin, is one of only a handful of guys who has been top 2 in a MVP count, and being a proven player can help, we know exactly what we will get, remember not all of these 'stud' imports will work out or be better than Wilson.

Gibson - IMO best Aussie guard in the NBL, plays hard both ends, provides leadership, there is a reason he is the only NBL player on the 2014 World Champs team.

Creek/Teys - Both decent as the 5th starter imo, look at other teams 5th starters they are not significantly better imo, both should be good for around 10pts 5 rbds and some intangibles, Creek with his energy and athleticsm, Teys with his great IQ.

Montreal - Yes he is from SEABL, but no this doesnt mean he is a dud. Look at his college stats compared to Redhage, Pace, Ervin, Farley, there isnt much difference, and 3 of those guys were MVP level in there prime. So no he is not Josh Chidlress or Jordan McCrae, but he still could be good and he may even turn out to be more valuable than one of those stud signings by the end of the season. I tip he will be atleast as good as Pace was last season and will average atleast 15pts 6 rbds and play solid defense, ie not too far off what DJ did last season and likely a upgrade on D.

Petrie - One of the best Aussie Fwds in the NBL, yes will be a bit undersized at C, but given we dont have too many beasts in the NBL and he is tougher than DJ anyway i dont see this as too much of an issues, especially with Schenscher off the bench.

Bench

Daly- our 9th/10th man, wont need heaps out of him, i reckon he could bring most of what Cadee did off the bench in limited minutes anyway. Compare him to other 9th/10th men around the league, he isnt too bad.

Crawford - If he can add to our 3pt shooting and perimiter D, he will be a valuable signing imo. Also a former Olympian, only a handful of guys in the NBL can say that.

Teys/Creek - good 6th/7th man material, which ever one doesnt start, i basically see these 2 splitting minutes depending on form etc.

BJ Anthony - Another decent 9th/10th man. Brings toughness which you can always use.

Schesncher - One of the best 7 footers in the NBL and to me one of the best players coming off the bench. He has been the focal point of some good NBL squads in the past, was in decent form by the end of last season, i wouldnt mind him starting with Petrie moving back to PF and bringing Creek and Teys off the bench, but yes we have a really good 6th and 7th man imo with Teys/Creek and Schenscher.

Now to compare to our opposition, as an attempt to rank the teams.
Im ranking each player out of 10, not necessarily following points rankings ill rank new imports with NBA 10's all other new imports will be ranked 9s, made Montreal a 8 as probably comes with less pedigree than most others.

Cairns
Wilkebein 9v Wilson 9
Gliddon 7v Gibson 10
Craig 9 v Creek 6
Loughton 9 v Montreal 8
Burston 8 v Petrie 9
Bruce 1 v Daly 1
Maynard 4v Crawford 6
Weigh 8 v Teys 6
Young 6 v Anthony 5
Tragardh 8 v Schenscher 8

Add Coaching Joey is better/more proven im giving him a 10 and ill give Fearne a 7

Returning players (assuming this helps with chemistry, etc) Cairns 7, 36ers 6

Overall
Cairns 83, 36ers 84
If Maynard is a better rookie and both imports are studs, Cairns finish ahead, but with the unknowns I have the 36ers slightly better.

Melbourne
Dennis 10 v Wilson 9
McRae 11 V Gibson 10
Barlow 8 v Creek 6
Worthington 9 v Montreal 8
Kickert 9 v Petrie 9
Tomlinson 6 v Daly 1
Corletto 6 v Crawford 6
Odigie 2v Teys 6
Walker 8 v Anthony 5
MacMillan 4 v Schenscher 8

Coaching ill give Anstey a 8, made the playoffs last season, Joey is a 10.

Returning players Melbourne 5, 36ers 6

Overall Melbourne 86, 36ers 84.

As id expect Melbourne are ahead of the 36ers, Melbourne should be an early grand final favourite. Possibly got the best import combo in the league, I gave McRae an 11, as I think him Ced Jackson and Josh Childress could be the best 3 players in the league, so all will be 11s.

New Zealand
Jackson 11 v Wilson 9
Webster 6 v Gibson 10
Abercrombie 9 v Creek 6
Vukona 9 v Montreal 8
Pledger 8 v Petrie 9
Carter 6 v Daly 1
Te Rangi 4 v Crawford 6
Wesley 4v Teys 6
Bailey 3v Anthony 5
Ibekwe 9 v Schenscher 8

Coaching Vickerman a 7, Joey a 10

Returning players NZ 5, 36ers 6

Overall NZ 81, 36ers 84, I have the 36ers a head at this stage, I have possibly ranked guys like Wesley and Bailey too low, if they prove to be significantly better than a 10th man ish rookie than NZ jump up a bit, but still not convinced they are better than the 36ers. I like the 36ers bench depth a lot more than the Breakers.

Perth
Martin 9 v Wilson 9
Beal 10v Gibson 10
Daniels 10 v Creek 6
Redhage 9 v Montreal 8
Knight 9 v Petrie 9
?? rookie 1v Daly 1
Muo 3 v Crawford 6
Hire 6 v Teys 6
Wagstaff 9v Anthony 5
Jervis 8 v Schenscher 8
Coaching ill give Gleeson a 10 and Joey a 10.

Returning players Perth 7, 36ers 6
Overall Perth 91, 36ers 84.

Perth look awesome again, ahead of the 36ers again, my early fav for the title.

Sydney

Perry 9 v Wilson 9
Madgen 8 v Gibson 10
Childress 11 v Creek 6
Garlepp 6 v Montreal 8
Brandt 6 v Petrie 9
Cadee 6 v Daly 1
White 2 v Crawford 6
Joyce 2 v Teys 6
Ellis 6 v Anthony 5
Duinker 6 v Schenscher 8

Coaching Cotter a Rookie, lets call him a 7, Joey is a 10

Returning players 4, 36ers 6
Overall Sydney 73, 36ers 84

I have the 36ers ahead of the kings, I think we are better in basically all positions bar SF and we have a more proven bench, unless Childress is out of this world and Perry is stud I don’t see the Kings being better than the 36ers, even if I have ranked some of there young bigs a little low.

Townsville
Markovic 9 v Wilson 9
Norton 7 v Gibson 10
Blanchfield 7 v Creek 6
Conklin 10 v Montreal 8
Gladness 10 v Petrie 9
?? rookie 1 v Daly 1
Djeric 3 v Crawford 6
Steindl 7 v Teys 6
Holmes 6 v Anthony 5
Vanderjagt 5 v Schenshcer 8

Coaching ill give Dennis a 8 and Joey a 10

Players returning Crocs 7, 36ers 6

Overall Crocs 80, 36ers 84

I like the Crocs, but still think the 36ers are ahead, even though the Crocs look to be better balanced in the big man department.

Wollongong

Carson 9 v Wilson 9
Ervin 9 v Gibson 10
Coenraad 6 v Creek 6
Forman 8 v Montreal 8
Davidson 8 v Petrie 9
?? 1 v Daly 1
Demos 5 v Crawford 6
Hill 6 v Teys 6
Ballinger 8 v Anthony 5
Gruber 7 v Schenscher 8

Coaching Ill give Geordie and Joey both 10s
Players returning Hawks 5, 36ers 6
Overall Hawks 82, 36ers 84

I have the 36ers slightly ahead, but not much difference I think they will both be of similar level.

Overall I rank the Teams something like

Perth
Melbourne
36ers
Cairns
Wollongong
New Zealand
Townsville
Sydney

Some of my rankings will be proven to be a little wrong, ie some imports will be better/worse than expected and I may have ranked a few players a touch high or a touch low, but overall I reckon that’s around the mark of how the league will sit, I think like last season 3rd til 8th wont be much difference and will be a tight finnish, 1 import over/underperforming and/or a injury could make all the difference.

So yes I think the 36ers have slid backwards into the pack slightly I don’t see it as all doom and gloom, we may not have a new marquee import but we have a lot of proven Aussies a proven coach and an experienced quality import pg, all that counts for something and I have us still in the top 4 as most of Joeys teams are.

Topic #35265 | Report this topic


YOLO  
Years ago

Cat meet Pigeons this years 36ers team costs more than last years

Reply #490378 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Don't forget the undersized Montreal at 6'7.5" is effectively replacing the 6'11" DJ.

Reply #490380 | Report this post


KET  
Years ago

Why is NZ ranked so low Jonno?

Reply #490381 | Report this post


PlaymakerMo  
Years ago

Not even sure where to begin... as much as I admire your optimism and hope your correct regarding the 36ers chances, I disagree with virtually all of your assessments.

Reply #490383 | Report this post


PlaymakerMo  
Years ago

hope you're* correct

Reply #490384 | Report this post


Ganymede 86  
Years ago

Think Joey is a good coach but the Sixers have chosen the wrong year to have a budget roster - If it was last year or the year before they probably would make the four with this roster

Reply #490387 | Report this post


A  
Years ago

I'd say its pretty gloomy when you have a head coach who wants out because the club can't give him the funds to get some high price stud imports. And is he staying around for the sack of holding onto a job?

Reply #490391 | Report this post


Jonno  
Years ago

I see overall NZ as similar to last year, hence having them in a similar position.

There roster moves are basically

Jackson in for Johnson, big upgrade
Ibekewe in for Wilkinson, ill call it a break even move, not convinced its an upgrade
Carter in for CJ Bruton, ill call it a breakeven
Wesley in for Corletto, i also reckon breakeven or downgrade,
Bailey in for Frank, a downgrade imo.

So overall i say its a break even, so similar to last season, hence being low on the latter per last year.

I also reckon TeRangi isnt really a sg, so they havnt got a greatly balanced roster.

Could be wrong, but thats my thoughts anyway.

I basically think its similar to last season with Melbourne upgrade, 36ers and Kings downgrading a spot or 2, Wollongong probably upgraded there roster but still have them around 3rd to 5th and everyone else around the same mark as last season.

Reply #490392 | Report this post


Jonno  
Years ago

PlaymakerMo, happy for you to disagree, id love to know why you disagree? how you rank the players and teams??

Would love for a few people to do a similar exercise, and we could come to a cencensous projected rankings of players and teams.

Happy for people to disagree, but would love if people stated there logic as to why??

And to me the Kings have Josh Childress and the 36ers have a SEABL import so therefore the 36ers will suck logic is too simplistic and not accurate, so please go a little deeper.

Reply #490393 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Talk to me after 5 games, 6ers are already behind the 8 ball. Season ticket holder, but not looking forward to this. recruiting has been very passive.

Reply #490400 | Report this post


Jonno  
Years ago

Another way to look at it

Last year

Perth 8 + 0 = 8, similar level to last season

Adelaide 7 - 1 = 6, step backwards losing Johnson, many argue 2 steps backwards (some would say 3), so will call them a 4.5

Melbourne 6 + 2 = 8, 2 step forwards imo gaining Kickert and 2 improved imports

Wollongong 5 + 1 = 6, small step forward, still not convinced of there sg/sf rotation, but like the additions of Ballinger, Ervin and the new import PG.

Sydney 4 - 1 = 3, step backwards losing Ogilvy, similar to Adelaide not really replacing there star big with anything special, even though they have potentially upgraded the imports, i still say its a step backwards, break even at best.

Cairns 3 + 1 = 4, like the look of there imports, a better balanced team this year imo, could call it 2 step forwards if the imports are good. So will call them a 4.5

New Zealand 2 + 1 = 3, to me break even or small step forward, gave them +1 for Ced Jackson

Townsville 1 + 2 = 3, 2 step forwards, a much better big man rotation with Gladness coming in and i like the addition of Steindl for Norton.

That gives a ranking of

Perth 8
Melbourne 8
Wollongong 6
Adelaide 4.5

Cairns 4.5
Sydney 3
New Zealand 3
Townsville 3

Either way the 36ers should be in that 3rd-6th mix imo. Melbourne and Perth are my locks for the top 2, and not much between the rest.

Hence why i dont think its all doom and gloom.

Reply #490402 | Report this post


Jonno  
Years ago

oops Steindl coming in for Crawford not Norton

Reply #490403 | Report this post


MACDUB  
Years ago

"not all of these 'stud' imports will work out or be better than Wilson."

I guarantee every one of them is better than Wilson.

And you are horribly overvaluing the 36ers lineup. Gibson is a run of the mill PG. Yes he is a Boomer but anyone of the import PGs would make it easy if they could. Petrie isn't even a top 5 PF maybe not even top 6 and is worse at C, Creek or Teys at SF - those guys wouldnt even come close to being starters anywhereelse. And a bench of Creek/Teys, Anthony, Crawford and Daly is straight weak


Reply #490406 | Report this post


Mystro  
Years ago

Tai Wesley was pretty decent at Utah State and def not bad at the Southland Sharks. Also watch some of Corey Websters performances at the WC's, he is a pure scorer and in line for a breakout NBL season IMO. TeRangi is a already a better shooter than Creek and will prob surpass him before long.
Last season the Breakers had a new coach and no Jackson and a really old CJ Bruton.
Now they have some fresher legs in Carter and Cedric Jackson is back and a lot of the key pieces from the 3peat team still in Vukona, Abercrombie & Pledger. Add Ibekwe who has a lot of experience as a pro as well as NBA summer league & international experience on top of 4 years at Maryland.

I'm excited and confident in the Breakers signings and season ahead.

Reply #490407 | Report this post


MACDUB  
Years ago

I think Wesley was even better than just decent

Avg 15 & 8 his Snr. Year at a big d1 school.

Wilkinson averaged 17 & 7 at the exact same school. Wesley could be the next Conklin which would bea great addition to a backup spot.

Reply #490408 | Report this post


Jonno  
Years ago

Fair enough re Wesley, i probably seriously under rated him, not really shocked as i dont know much about him and didnt look him up, just assumed he would be a average/mid level rookie. Thank you for letting me know, i look forward to checking him out.

If i go back to my original rankings and call him a 7 or 8, that makes NZ 84 or 85, which makes them about the same as the 36ers, or slightly better

I still think it will basically like this top 2 Perth, Melbourne,

Fighting out for 3rd to 6th Adelaide, Cairns, Wollongong, NZ

and bottom 2 but not too far off the pace Sydney and Townsville.

I quite possibly am over hyping the 36ers roster MACDUB, ill have a look at it comparing stats ie Wilson v other import guards, Gibson v other Aussie starting guards, Petrie v other starting bigs

I see Creek and Teys as mid-level players and have ranked them the same as guys like Brad Hill, i dont think i have over hyped them, and to me they are both ahead of TaRangi, i know TaRangi is younger and may get there, but im not convinced he is there yet, another one ill have a look at stats for.

Webster, i am also a fan and would have started him last season, but not convinced he is above that level of the mid-range guys yet, he may also get there, but guys like BJ Anthony have also done well at NZ NBL in the past too, and he isnt above those guys and Creek and Hill have put up good SEABL play too. At best he will be a 7, slightly above them, i dont think he will be elite this season, but hey he could have a break out year ala Goulding.

If Webster has a break out year, TaRangi turns out as good/better than Creek/Teys, Wesley is as good as your suggesting, and Ced Jackson comes back in MVP form, i concede the Breakers will be top 4 and ahead of the 36ers.

But still a few IFs there, so not convinced they will be, but do have them in the same group, ie the 4 teams competing for the 3rd to 6th spots even if all that doesnt happen.

Reply #490413 | Report this post


paul  
Years ago

This is all well and good, except basketball isn't played on paper. How teams actually play together will determine how they perform more than the resumes of their players.

Adelaide has excellent continuity this season and excellent chemistry, while their talent is still decent. Defensively they will be better.

Re all the "stud" imports, a number of them are replacing last year's guns, so there isn't a big upgrade in talent.

Daniels replacing Ennis
Childress replacing Young
McRae replacing Goulding
Carson replacing Clarke

Reply #490414 | Report this post


Mystro  
Years ago

That is precisely why I think NZ is being hugely under rated Paul.

Webster, Abercrombie & Vukona are all at the WC's and those 3 along with Pledger & Jackson won consecutive titles together. The Tall Black players will hopefully find some form in Spain and carry that chemistry into the NBL season.

I expect Vickerman to step up this season, Lemanis and the 3peat were big boots to fill last season and although the big drop off was somewhat of a surprise, I wasn't expecting a 4th title last year.

Ebekwe is at least experienced and proven as a pro and together with Wesley, Vukona & Pledger they have versatile front court with very athletic wings in Abercrombie & TeRangi who can also knock down the 3ball at an excellent rate.
Jackson & Carter will not be a pleasant pair for opposing Guards and Corey Webster can certainly get his offensively.
Duane Bailey is the only unproven guy at this level and he certainly won't be getting a ton of minutes or responsibility but is a capable young player.

Reply #490418 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

The game isn't played on paper, as has been pointed out but even so, Some of your numbers need serious adjustment.

Petrie 9? Gibbo 10?

Do you really think Petrie is as good as Redhage, for example?

Gibbo is a good player but with the upgrade of talent at guard this year- Macrae, Carson, Jackson, Wilbekin etc- Gibbo won't even be an above average starting guard in this league.

Reply #490420 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

From where I'm sitting Adelaide look like they will be in the bottom 4 without doubt.

Not sure exactly where I rank them, but certainly way below Perth, United and NZ.

Reply #490421 | Report this post


Wilson Sting  
Years ago

Sorry but 36ers are the only team I would bet on to miss the playoffs. Everyone else is a chance IMO.

Reply #490427 | Report this post


Jonno  
Years ago

It seems Boty isnt too pumped about the 36ers chances this season either.

But mentions Joey isnt phased and loves the challenge , which i love to hear.

I also remember Boty and many others thinking we would miss the playoffs last season so yea you never know what will happen.

I see Mystros point re NZ, will be interested to see how they go, especially if Webster has a break out year, and it will be great to have Ced Jackson back!

I still think the 36ers have one of the better guard rotations. Not saying the best, but in the top 3 or 4 imo, not sure why people are so down on Gibson and Wilson.

I know stats are not everything, but they can sort of show the level of a player, and are useful, the fact both of these guys have played NBL is also an advantage imo.

So we have Gibson and Wilson

Gibsons 13/14 NBL stats 12pts, 5ast, 4 rbd, 48%FG, 38% 3PFG

Wilson 13/14 NBL stats 14pts, 3ast, 4 rbds, 50% FG, 26% 3PFG
Wilson NCAA stats 18pts, 4ast, 3rbd, 46%FG, 37%3PT

Now compare that to Cairns

Gliddon 13/14 NBL 12pts, 3 ast, 2rbd, 50%FG, 37%3PT, i say Gibsons stats are better, plus he is a better defender.

Wilbekin 13/14 NCAA 13pts, 4 ast, 2rbd, 40%FG, 39% 3P, Wilsons NCAA numbers are better and is a proven NBL player,

So i say 36ers have a better back court than cairns,

Melbourne, this is one backcourt i rate above the 36ers, both these imports look to be studs.

Stephen Dennis, was my tip for MVP after seeing his first few blitz/pre season games, and many agreed, prior to getting hurt, if he gets back to that form along with his length, athleticism and all round game, i expect him to be better than Wilson.

Jordan McRae, his summer league and college stats exceed Wilson, he is my pick to be the best sg in the league if he settles into the NBL and the Tigers play with good chemistry they should have the best guard rotation in the league.

New Zealand

Cedric Jackson, MVP when he last played NBL, averaged 14 pts, 7ast, 6rbds and played awesome defense, so he is better than Jamar Wilson

Corey Webster 13/14 NBL 9 pts, 2 ast, 2 rbd, 42%FG, 35% 3pt, i like Webster he is a good player, still with good potential would love for him to have a break out year, if you factor in he played less minutes than Gibbo on average his scoring numbers were probably as good if not better than Gibbo, but Gibbo is a better defender and all round player imo, if Webster has a break out ala Goulding the last couple of years as people are suggesting, he could prove to be better, but until i see it im taking Gibbo.

So its 1-1, so they have a equal back court, could give a slight edge to NZ for having Jackson the best player.

Perth

This is another i call a tie,

Martin V Gibbo - Martins stats dont do his game justice, i believe Martin is a better defender and athlete and like Gibson his team usually wins more than it loses, but Gibson has a more polished offensive game and the fact he was picked for the Boomers a couple of times ahead of Martin is an indication he is atleast as good, if not better,

Beal v Wlson, im a big fan of 'Dolla Beal', has slightly better shooting and scoring numbers than Wilson and his GF MVP gives him an edge imo,

So yea ill call it 1-1 and a tie, Perth with a slight edge for having the same combo as last year, helps with chemistry, you know they work well together.

Sydney

Perry v Wilson

Perrys college numbers are of a similar level to Wilsons in their senior year being 21pts, 4ast, 4 rbd, v Wilsons senior year averaging 19pts, 5 ast, 6 rbd, there career college numbers are also similar, so since Perry hasnt played NBL and college is the closest comparrison we have, i say this is a break even assuming Perry adjusts well to the pro game in the NBL.

Madgen v Gibson - offensively id give an edge to Madgen as far as shooting/scoring goes, but Gibson is a better all round player in terms of play making and defense, albeit playmaking usually isnt Madgens role, Gibson makes boomers teams ahead of Madgen for a reason. Last seasons NBL stats were similar with Madgen averaging 15pts, 2 ast, 3 rbd, v Gibson 12pts, 5ast, 4 rbd, add to the fact Gibson plays way better defense, i give the edge to gibson

So i give the edge here to the 36ers.

Townsville

Markovic - is a great play maker, one of the best Aussie pgs, probably the best offensively in the NBL, im a fan. Last season he averaged 13pts, 5ast, 2 rbds, while shooting better than Wilson who averaged 14pts, 3ast, 4 rbds. Given the shooting ill give the edge to Markovic, but these 2 are of a very similar level.

Norton - a great young talent, lots of potential, im a fan, but at this point in there careers Gibson is clearly better,

Ill give this one to the 36ers also, mostly due to Gibson being significantly better than Norton (or who ever the Crocs start sg, Steindl?)

Wollongong

Carson - he hasnt played NBL, his career college numbers are very similar to Wilson averaging 18pt, 4 ast, 5 rbd v Wilsons 18pts, 4ast, 3rbd, both shooting similar numbers, ill call this one a draw assuming Carson adapts to the NBL well, and he is supposed to be lightning quick and exciting, so i look forward to watching him play.

Ervin - obviously played with the 36ers last season, put up 16 pts, 5 ast, 4 rbd, Gibson put up 12pts, 5ast, 4 rbd, given Gibson had less of a scoring role and played better defense and was more consistent accross the season ill call it a draw. Ervins very best is bettter than Gibson atleast offensively and can win a game on his own, but can he bring it every night, he had a few off nights last season. Ervins lack of size at the sg is a concern for me also.

I also not convinced that having 2 guys less than 6'0 in the back court will work, but will be exciting to watch, i have concerns about this guard rotation defensively, which is why i beleive the 36ers are slightly better in the back court as its a better rounded combo.

So for me Melbourne, Perth and NZ have a better back court than us,

I think we have a clear edge on Townsville, and a slight edge on Sydney, Cairns and Wollongong

Which to me makes us middle of the road, which is how i view the team,

Which yes is a step backwards from last years GF, but not all doom and gloom, and i dont get why everyone is so down on Wilson and Gibson, they are alteast as good as most back courts in the league.

I think people forget how good Wilson is, and are getting too excited about some of the new import guards, who judging by college careers Wilson is atleast on par with them.

Reply #490505 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

In his blog post about the Montreal signing/non-signing if anything Boti seemed to be pumping up the 36ers way too much.

Reply #490721 | Report this post




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