Avv
Years ago

FIBA World Cup Group D Possibilities

As per FIBA:

Group D
Australia, Lithuania and Slovenia are guaranteed to fill places 1-3, while Angola, Korea and Mexico will finish somewhere between 4-6.

Slovenia: Can take first place if they defeat Lithuania or lose by eight points or less. Should they lose by more than eight points, they can finish in either second or third place.
Lithuania: Can take first place with a win over Slovenia by nine points or more. A loss will guarantee third place, while there is also a chance of finishing second with a narrow win.
Australia: Regardless of whether or not they beat Angola, their placing will rely on the result of the Slovenia-Lithuania clash. If Lithuania lose, Australia will finish second.
Mexico: A win over Korea will secure fourth place, while a narrow loss coupled with Angola losing to Australia will also guarantee a place in the Round of 16 in Barcelona.
Korea: Must beat Mexico by more than 17 points to have any chance of progressing to the Round of 16. However, that result becomes void if Angola defeat Australia.
Angola: A win over Australia will see them advance to the Round of 16 if Korea beat Mexico.

Topic #35320 | Report this topic


Anonymous  
Years ago

I think Lithuania will go for the big win and then tank in the fourth if they don't think that they can get it.

Reply #491721 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Agreed - Lithuania are only hurt if the win by 5-8 points (given if Australia win).

The Lithuania game tips off 8 hours after the Australia game, so they will know the result when they play. All the tanking talk can stop as their is no point.

Australia should aim to beat Angola regardless and hope Lithuania win between 9-13 points.

If Lithuania are up by 6 points with 30 seconds to play I can see them scoring a basket for Slovenia.

Reply #491725 | Report this post


Bo Hamburger  
Years ago

I'm underwhelmed by FIBA's wording here: who will finish where if Lithuania win by more than 8?

(There's too many 'can's in their scenarios; be more assertive FIBA! 'Slovenia MUST win by x or lose by less than y'; 'if Lithuania wins by more than 8 they WILL finish top' etc)

Reply #491726 | Report this post


paul  
Years ago

We were told to keep the articles simple, but the scenario is something like this::

Slovenia wins = Slo, Aus, Lith
Lithuania wins by 1-4 = Slo, Aus, Lith
Lithuania wins by 5-8 = Slo, Lith, Aus
Lithuania wins by 9-13 = Lith, Slo, Aus
Lithuania wins by 14+ = Lith, Aus, Slo

Reply #491734 | Report this post


paul  
Years ago

The above is if we beat Angola. If we don't it's simple:

Slovenia wins = Slo, Aus, Lith
Lithuania wins = Lith, Slo, Aus

Reply #491736 | Report this post


Kent Brockman  
Years ago

The best bet to advance as deep as possible is we throw the Angola game.

That makes Lithuania fight for the win so that get the #1.

Reply #491750 | Report this post


MACDUB  
Years ago

Going straight to the TAB. $100 on Angola to win.

Is this dumb?

Reply #491751 | Report this post


LC  
Years ago

It is so un-Australian to throw a game or lay down like Sally and I hate the thought.

However the potential benefits are almost too irresistible to ignore.

Reply #491753 | Report this post


GWB  
Years ago

Lithuania wont want to win by between 5 and 8 then, but does that score change by how we score against Angola?

Reply #491754 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Any Aussie backpackers in Slovenia may want to head towards to border if we do lose to Angola.

Reply #491757 | Report this post


ANON  
Years ago

We want to play USA in the semi-finals right? Doesn't that mean that finishing 3rd is actually better than 2nd?

Means we would play Ukraine/Turkey/DOM then winner of D1/C4

Reply #491759 | Report this post


GWB  
Years ago

Dear Lithuania. Win by 10.

Sincerely, Australia

Reply #491761 | Report this post


Annon  
Years ago

If Aussies come up against US and lose, do they get another chance ???

Reply #491763 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Might be a dumb question, but is it possible for Australia to come top???

If they smash Angola can we come top??

If so, thats what we should be aiming to do imo.

Reply #491765 | Report this post


fstos  
Years ago

MACDUB.

That is the value bet of the year.

Anyone know what Angola is paying.

I like the multi Angola all up on Lithuania.

Reply #491767 | Report this post


XY  
Years ago

No, Australia cannot come top.

The equation is simple. We want to wish for:

1. A loss to Angola, with Lithuania to win; or

2. A win to Angola, with Lithuania to win by 8+.

Any other combination of results, we finish second and play against the US in the quarter finals (if we get there).

Obviously 1 above makes the equation easier for Lithuania - therefore tank away Australia!

Reply #491776 | Report this post


MACDUB  
Years ago

Angola paying $5.50 for the win over there.

Surprised the TAB NZ haven't removed the betting options.

Reply #491787 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

Angola now paying $7 at Centrebet. Who is loading up on Australia?!

I went to bet at $5.10 and my bet was rejected because they'd put the price out to $7! Ha. Fine by me!

Reply #491796 | Report this post


MACDUB  
Years ago

Knowing my luck, I"ll bet on Angola to win and Australia will probably somehow win.

I mean think about it, it must be fairly hard to purposely lose a game.

Can't really purposely miss shots.

Just have to play matador defence I suppose.

Reply #491803 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

All Australians should back the Boomers at $1.10, its the patriotic thing to do:-) (it will also push the price out on Angola for me)

Reply #491804 | Report this post


XY  
Years ago

We have been playing matador defence at times anyway (cue Andersen jokes...)

Reply #491805 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

How to lose: rest 1-2 starters for the next round, overplay the bench, play a style that doesn't suit us, rely on Angola's need to win.

Reply #491813 | Report this post


fstos  
Years ago

Still $7.00 on centrebet. Not normally a betting man but sheesh that's the best value bet since Fine Cotton.

Reply #491816 | Report this post


Bo Hamburger  
Years ago

Thanks paul - I find that explanation simpler in many ways than the original. :)

Reply #491821 | Report this post


OzD  
Years ago

Angola played amazing against Slovenia. Slovenia did implode a little, and Angolans are always arguing amongst themselves.

Lithuania tried to run up the final margin against Korea to take care of any tie breaker situation.


We should rest key players, Ingles, Andersen, Baynes, Delly and give the bench an opportunity and whatever happens, happens.

Lithuania will beat Slovenia. Slovenia wouldn't lose by 9-13 they will let the game blow out and lose by more to finish 3rd, if Australia beats Angola.

Reply #491838 | Report this post


Harry Balls  
Years ago

I wonder if there's an Angolan hoops forum where anyone's suggesting they tank to avoid a meeting with the US. After all, those countries have some history...ask Charles Barkley

Reply #491848 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

If the top 3 finish with a 4-1 record, doesn't it come down to goal difference?

Reply #491854 | Report this post


MACDUB  
Years ago

AUS have a great chance of getting to top 4.

I might be wrong here but I see the path as:

Australia vs Turkey round of 16 - could argue that Aus would be favourites.

Australia vs. Slovenia or Lithuania in Quarters - already beaten LTU and Slovenia rematch is very winnable.

That would get the Boomers into the top 4? Or are there multiple games in the quarters? I.e. a round robin?

Reply #491869 | Report this post


LC  
Years ago

Believe you are on the right pathway Macdub.

Reply #491872 | Report this post


Harry Balls  
Years ago

Depends where we finish in our pool...and that's undecided (and somewhat out of our hands)

Reply #491876 | Report this post


paul  
Years ago

There's still quite a few options open involving NZ, Turkey, Ukraine, Finland or Dominican Republic in first round and then USA, Slovenia or Lithuania in the QFs.

Reply #491883 | Report this post




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