Jack Toft
Years ago

New disease? - Perthorious Chargus

In basketball, there are a number of fouls. Reaching, blocking, pushing etc, and of course offensive fouls. Offensive fouls are typically grabbing, holding or of course charging, which can be emphasised by the flop. Most fouls are defensive fouls, so how prevalent are offensive fouls?

I looked at the games Perth have played in so far this year and it seems there could be a new disease which appears to only affect visiting NBL players at Perth Arena.

In Perth's away games, they average 1.83 offensive fouls per game (9.2% of all their fouls) and their opponents average 0.83 OF's per game (4.2% of all of their fouls) The fouls have been Beal (2), Daniels (2), Ross (5), Jarvis (1), Redhage (1 + 1 unsportsmanlike)

However, on their home court, they average 0.83 OF's per game (6.7% of all their fouls) The fouls have been Beal (0), Daniels (0), Ross (1), Knight (2), Redhage (1 + 1 technical) Perth seem to be (esp the imports) more passive on their home court. I would find it hard to believe that the refs would turn a blind eye.

Perth's opponents average 0.83 OF's per game (4.2% of all fouls), however, there appears to be a 257% increase in aggressiveness in Perth's opponents at Perth Arena and Perth's opponents jump to an average of 2.14 OF/game, or a massive 12.1% of all fouls committed. Naturally, I find it hard to believe the assertion that the refs would be biased in any way, so I was trying to understand why there would be a 257% increase in the offensive foul rate?

Do teams got out to commit more fouls at Perth? If they do, then the other 7 teams must have a secret pact to do this.

The only sensible and logical explanation I can propose is "Perthorious Chargus". Obviously the red singlets of Perth must infuriate the testosterone filled players to a degree where they become more aggressive towards Perth and obvious commit more offensive fouls. Like bulls, the players must see the need to charge uncontrollably at the Perth players who, in their more passive state, accept the over aggressive nature of their opponents. The only flaw in Dr Jack's thesis is that if this was a true cause, why does the OF rate not jump up 257% when teams play Wollongong?

How else can we explain such a phenomena?

Topic #36083 | Report this topic


paul  
Years ago

I did some stats this week re free throws for Perth's oppo home and away, which came out as around 13 at Perth Arena but 25 in other venues. That's a fair difference, must be the 12,000 redshirts!

Reply #506440 | Report this post


Nathan of Perth  
Years ago

I remember one of those charges called against Knight was complete crap too.

Anyway, this one only affects 70 people at most; this Green-Eyed Derangement Syndrome seems to be turning into a pandemic!

Reply #506445 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

give it a break Jack Toft honestly the obsession with the wildcats at perth arena is getting a bit sad no doubt you are getting your excuses ready for when you lose on Sunday. There will be no mention of the benefit of the whistle that the 36ers got against United tonight

Reply #506446 | Report this post


Bear  
Years ago

Conspiriacus Theoritis!

Reply #506467 | Report this post


Jack Toft  
Years ago

Why would I want to give it a break? Would you expect Amnesty not to speak out against injustices around the globe? There could be a new disease to be discovered and maybe a Nobel prize for medicine on offer.

Reply #506471 | Report this post


Peterjohn  
Years ago

Interesting. I always find it hard to understand how posters (from all teams) happily accept that their team playing in front the home crowd lifts them and puts pressure on the away team but claim it doesn't affect the refs! Especially as most posters think the refs are sub par anyway. Somehow the refs are super humanly capable of blocking out the visual and verbal impact of the home crowd at their team's venue while remaining rubbish at every other venue.

It makes more sense to debate the size of the home crowd effect on refs for different teams than to ignore it altogether. In that spirit, repeating Jack's analysis and similar analyses for other teams would be a more helpful exercise than putting up the defences and throwing stones.

Reply #506475 | Report this post


Jack Toft  
Years ago

For all games played until the end of R9:

OF Rate of home team 7.1%, OF rate of away team 7.7%

Reply #506494 | Report this post


Jack Toft  
Years ago

At Perth Arena: 6.7% vs 12.1%

Reply #506496 | Report this post


Marcus Camby  
Years ago

Is it standard for the 'most knowledgble' fans to go around digging up mud when their team is not doing well?

As I remember there were a fair few home cooked calls at the home last night for the Sixers...but lets not consider those.

Reply #506508 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Great analysis. Well done

Reply #506526 | Report this post


Dazz  
Years ago

I'd be more interested in seeing those stats evaluated relative to how the teams were playing, rather than simply a blanket.

There's no doubt that the Cats enjoy a huge home-court advantage, and generally visiting teams struggle at the Arena. Maybe struggling teams commit more offensive fouls?

Reply #506554 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Be careful about who you share you diagnosis with, Jack.
Unfortunately the fans of the team afflicted with Perthorious Chargus themselves suffer a condition known as sensivus butthurtius

Reply #506568 | Report this post


KET  
Years ago

Is it standard for the 'most knowledgble' fans to go around digging up mud when their team is not doing well?


In fairness, if you're going to be the 'most knowledgable' there's a standard that has to be reached when digging up mud. This sort of statistical analytics puts shame to the other fans.

As I remember there were a fair few home cooked calls at the home last night for the Sixers...but lets not consider those.


You should evidence it

Reply #506572 | Report this post


Dazz  
Years ago

Refs are human, they make mistakes.
There also seems to be variance over time in what they choose to "focus" on. They'll start a season red hot to send a message on certain fouls, then gradually ease up.
There will also be individual refs that call certain fouls differently.

However anybody that seriously thinks that refs display "home-court bias" is a crackpot.

Reply #506573 | Report this post


paul  
Years ago

You don't think there is bias towards the home team? So why do Perth concede twice as many free throws away from home as they do at Perth Arena?

Reply #506580 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Seems Adelaide has an ongoing case of Arborious Utensilius.

Reply #506592 | Report this post


Darryl  
Years ago

More like Taurus Excretus.

Reply #506598 | Report this post


maxymoo  
Years ago

Perhaps the Perth players lift their defensive rating in front of a crowd?

Adelaide should try drawing a crowd sometime so we can compare the stats?

Butthurtus Jacskaurius

Reply #506607 | Report this post


koberulz  
Years ago

However anybody that seriously thinks that refs display "home-court bias" is a crackpot.

Consciously, that may well be true. But the notion that the crowd has zero effect on the refs is ridiculous.

I recall hearing of a study conducted in the NBA a couple of years ago, which found that home court advantage consisted almost entirely of advantageous officiating.

Reply #506609 | Report this post


Train  
Years ago

Wow just list a ton of respect for Jack Toft after this absolute garbage of a thread.
- 1 Respect , + 1 Tosser

Reply #506738 | Report this post


Dazz  
Years ago

"You don't think there is bias towards the home team? So why do Perth concede twice as many free throws away from home as they do at Perth Arena?"

Maybe because they play better at home?

I like ragging on the Refs as much as the next guy, but think about what you're suggesting.
There's a blocking foul committed by the Cats, but instead the refs decide to call it a charge? WHY?
Because they're all closet Wildcats fans???
Or they're afraid somebody might boo them??
Seriously?

Reply #506750 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Oh awesome. Just what we need - another one-eyed Wildcats fan with no sense of reality.
Yeah because crowds just never influence refs do they!! I'd put more effort into my argument if I wasn't already convinced it would be totally pointless.

Reply #506751 | Report this post


maxymoo  
Years ago

Who got the flop warning today Jack?

Reply #506753 | Report this post


Marcus Camby  
Years ago

Owned.

Reply #506754 | Report this post


paul  
Years ago

Given how badly flops have been called this season the person who got the warning probably got fouled and the person who flopped probably got the charge!

Reply #506761 | Report this post


Aussiebballer  
Years ago

You would have to say the crowd would factor into the chargelock call.
Perth have a crowd, 2 to 3 times the size of most teams, some 5-6 times.

With a lot of players (across all teams) happy to flop on these plays you are going to get more calls at home with the crowd making noise.

You can argue that the ref should just call it as it is, but a lot of these calls are 50-50 and some refs seem to like making the charge sign and getting a big reaction from the crowd.

I saw a charge called in the MiamiUtah game when Chalmers moved sideways and leaned his shoulder sideways into the Utah player and then flopped 4 feet backwards and got the call.

So it happens everywhere, I guess the difference is that the NBA ref will actually get feedback on the call and sent to the NBDL if they don't get better.
Don't know what happens in the NBL in terms of ref feedback, they won't get better if they aren't shown the errors or if there is no accountability.

Reply #506778 | Report this post


Train  
Years ago

To say that Perth is the only team that gets " home court calls" is just a lot or garbage. I usually enjoy your creative writing Jack but seriously we here enough of this rubbish from Boti.

Reply #506781 | Report this post


Jim G  
Years ago

Just maybe, the teams that play Perth in Perth arrive with a defeatist attitude and therefore play like crap. Therefore they commit more fouls. maybe if the arrived thinking they might win, it might be a different story.
It is interesting to see how many people hate the Wildcats simply because they are successful.

Reply #506811 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

I'm a Wildcats supporter and you are right. If the Cats finish top of the ladder and get home advantage they will win the championship because the refs crap themselves in front of a decent crowd.

You will notice Cats aren't that great on the road, the home cooking is inflating how strong we really are. It won't help if we play finals on the road.

For the sake of fairness I hope Breakers or Taipans finish top, let the Cats prove themselves away from home.

Reply #506814 | Report this post


jumpshot  
Years ago

Spot on Jack.

Reply #506909 | Report this post


Dazz  
Years ago

Seriously?
Maybe some other teams should put in the hard yards with the public and build a fanbase, like the Cats have done over the past decades? Instead of just b____ing because they have bigger crowds.

It was interesting in the game against Adelaide. For the first 2.5~3 quarters, whilst the game was close, Adelaide had an advantage in the foul count. Then they ran out of puff (or gave up,) they fell away, they got sloppy, and managed to level up the foul count.

Reply #506935 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

"You will notice Cats aren't that great on the road, the home cooking is inflating how strong we really are. It won't help if we play finals on the road."

Exhibit A: vs. Kings tonight.

Reply #507095 | Report this post


Dazz  
Years ago

So once again we have seen a struggling team, playing catch-up all night, get frantic and sloppy and commit more fouls. 24 - 18.
But are we blaming those "biased" Sydney refs?
No, the Cats are appalling on the road this year and have simply played poorly.

Reply #507118 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

The Cats aren't that great at home either. They just get to play 8 on 5 every game at Perth Arena

Reply #507143 | Report this post




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