Angola has our measure :-)

Then there would still be Lithuania, Russia, possibly Brazil and Argentina as main threats outside of the USA. We can take Argentina, probably Brazil, maybe Russia and Lithuania, but Canada, Spain and France scare me a bit. I think France might have the most talented team outside of the USA, and Spain would have the best team cohesion. We might have a vastly improving depth and quality of talent, but it is very premature talking medals with what we are up against. It is the aim, of course, and we will be around the mark but definitely underdogs against a few there.

Australia tend to play to their opponent, which means we are capable of beating the Russians/Lithuanians/French on any given night, but are just as likely to drop a game to anyone else two nights later.

The good thing about the Olympics as compared to the World Cup is that there are only 12 teams and 8 of those get a chance at the knockout stage. Its a far easier tournament to fluke your way through or just get hot at the right time, as evidenced by the fact we have historically had far more success there (3 x 4th) than the WC (best is 5th?).

It also shows just how special that run by New Zealand was in 2002 (though that was an historically weird tournament).

Two of the teams in Rio will represent Africa and Asia and generally one of those is in each of the 2 groups.

Brazil will be there as host, USA as WC champs and us (or NZ) as Oceania champs. That leaves the Euro champs (we'll say France) and Americas champs (Argentina for now).

USA
Brazil
Iran*
Angola*
France*
Argentina*
Australia*

*Confeds not odne yet

That leaves 5 spots for the pre tournament. When you think the likes of Spain, Lithuania, Russia, Croatia, Turkey, Canada, Puerto Rico, Serbia, Slovenia, Greece, etc would all be competing for those 5 spots it shows the importance of winning tonight.

Having said that though, we'll have the talent to win any given game (France, USA and Spain may be a stretch) but thats the beauty of the Olympic format

Unless it's changed there are only three spots through the qualifying tournament. Continental qualification last time was 2 x Europe & Americas, 1 x Oceania, Asia and Africa plus the world champ and host.

"Croatia have Mario Hezonja... the best player in the history of the game. Nuf said."

"Not even the best Croatian player in history."

Not even the best player in Croatia. Heck, he wasn't even the best Croatian player at his club side last season.

Ah ok, thanks for clearing that up Paul.

I always thought it was 1 x each continent. Makes more sense that Europe get at least 2x.

You figure France and Spain are the two to beat in Europe. Spain is definitely on its downward turn, but still have a lot of talent. France looks good.

In the Americas, with USA and Brazil already qualified it leaves it wide open. Argentina have been good for so long but their core group is so old now. One more run with an Olympic tournament so close to home might be enough to keep them going? Canada is obviously the up and comer. Mexico and Puerto Rico could be around the mark as well, but, anyone else likely to make it?

Dominican Republic are also a chance, it is wide open.

Re Olympic spots, it will be one from each continental qualifying tournament from 2020 once the main qualification comes through the previous year's world cup.

In reply to earlier comment, Argentina is old and we have had the upper hand on Lithuania in the last two tourneys. I expect us to beat either of them. Looking at these line ups I think our work is cut out for us, but we could do it with great execution andgood coaching (which we don't have).

Australia could definitely get through the OQT, as could NZ, but it will come down to what happens on the day against evenly matched teams.

Do not underestimate Serbia, they just beat Russia by 35 points in a warmup match.

"Old when playing against college teams = "experienced"
Old when playing internationally = "will get blown out of the water by our no name team that barely beat an NBL team earlier this week"
"

Our team that only had 4 warm up games to their 10. In each of those warm ups we messed with our rotations and our best player turned up 5 days before the game. You dont seem to think too deeply about the issues surrounding it, do you?

Yes, old. Manu Ginobli, Prigioni and even Scola are mid 30s. We can out run and gun that team and we almost did a few years ago with a team that isn't half what we should have next year. Argentina is on its downward slide. Argentina and Lithuania do not bother me. Spain and France certainly do.

"Our team that only had 4 warm up games to their 10."

Why do you get sucked into that? Look at NZ's performance on the world stage to show where they stand.

Australia beat them by 12. The average margin in their eight games against European teams at the past two world cups was -4.3 points, and at the 2012 world cup it was +1.5.

I think the issue with our 'NBA Players' is that they don't necessarily work great together on the court at the same time. Mills is really the only NBA guy we have who is a scorer - Ingles is more of a 'points within the flow of the offense' type of scorer. It's our Goulding/Broekhoff type of guys - Euro/fringe NBA - that we are going to need to put points up for us. Our NBA guys are quality, but it's a bit unbalanced towards the defensive end in general.

Canada also have a young kid about to start his freshman year. Think his name Murray. He will make the roster I reckon

"NZ shot 37% and we won by 12. Imagine if they'd shot respectably"

You dont think defence played a part in that?

"I can't wait til GWB gets proven incredibly wrong just like he was with delly"

How was I proven wrong? I have always said Delly is a limited player who hustles himself into contention. The guy made the Cavs roster again, didn't he? He was instrumental for Australia saturday, wasn't he? Where have I been proven wrong? Only thing that is proven wrong is your assumptions about what you think I am saying.

"Yes we get it Serbia are wildcards"

Silver medal at the world cup. I think they are a bit more than wild cards.

Lithuania I think don't have the top end talent we do , but the depth of their next tier are stronger then our next tier and they are just so great at playing a strong team game. A very composed team on the few occasions I've seen them play.

Actually I remember saying he was asking too much, and that he is better to just take the Cavaleirs deal and accept what they were giving him.

Once again, assumptions.

Yes they are ranked third. Third by the accumulation of years of success and their golden era almost a decade ago. What are their results since 2010? Have they medalled or been in the equation since then? They are not the third best basketball nation in the world right now.

The key guys in the line up you mentioned are over the hill. I never said Argentina wouldn't be tough, but our full strength team would have their measure on most occasions.

2011 - 1st (Americas)
2012 - 4th (Olympics)
2013 - 3rd (Americas)
2014 - 11th (World Cup)

I wouldn't write them off just yet. Probably not a medal team but certainly a dangerous opponent if you allow them to play slow.