PeterJohn
Years ago

Why have the 36ers gone downhill so fast?

Until 4 games ago, Adelaide was giving up the fewest points per game of all teams in the NBL (78.4). I was gobsmacked at the time, given the team's history.

In the last 4 games we've given up 101.5 points per game. Our season average is back to historical normal and we're giving up the third highest points per game.

So what has changed? Clearly the team's defence has gone downhill in a big way. But why? The only things I could think of were Teys being injured and Randle arriving/McNeail leaving. So I've done a comparison of selected stats for the first half and second half of the season so far for the 36ers.

In the first 4 games, the 36ers' opponents shot 37/111 from 3 point territory (30%). In game 5 (Randle's first game, off the 'plane, not settled into the line-up) the opponent shot 7/26 (27%). In the last 4 games, opponents have shot 44/111 (40%).

In the first 4 games, 36ers' opponents took 54 free throws (13.5 per game), scoring 9.3 points per game from them. In the 5th game they took 6 and got 6 points. In the last 4 games, opponents have taken 113 free throws (28.3 per game) and scored 20.3 points per game from them.

In the first 4 games, Gibson's effectiveness rating ranged from 12 to 26 and averaged 19.8 per game. In game 5 it was 17. In the last 4 games it's ranged from -3 to 18 and averaged 9.3 per game.

Teys played 3 of the first 4 games and has played 3 of the last 4, missing 3 in the middle. He played very few minutes in game 7.

The fall-off in Gibson's rating since Randle arrived and became the offensive focus reminds me of his problems with Wilson in the team in the first half of last season.

It also looks very much like the 36ers can no longer defend the perimeter nor the inside penetration, since Randle arrived. That suggests either teams have changed strategy to exploit a pre-existing weakness or Randle's arrival has broken the 36ers' defence.

I haven't seen the games themselves, so this is based on review of box scores. What do those who've seen the team over the season so far think has caused thIs Jekyll and Hyde change?

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Bear  
Years ago

Because some nights other teams play better.

Reply #563993 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

Starting line up has changed a few times.

How many players have started at any given point? 9 now?

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Bear  
Years ago

Posted this on another thread, though it may be more relevant here:

Got a question for all those Adelaide fans crying in the wake of another loss...

If Sydney say goodbye to big Al Harrington once Chillders comes back from injury, would the 6'ers look to replace Ere with Al?

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Anonymous  
Years ago

I know Randal is a good players.. But In my opinion he has come in and disturbed all the chemistry the 36ers had.. To much a me me player.

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paul  
Years ago

A big factor is Adelaide had the slowest or second slowest statistical pace before Randle arrived, and have had the fastest pace since.

The fact you have a pint-sized point guard and a poor defensive centre also makes the team more vulnerable defensively, especially a team that likes to switch a lot.

Congrats on starting a thread on the D though PeterJohn, rather than blaming the offence when it is producing its fair share of points.

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AngusH  
Years ago

I'd agree that the Gibson/Randle situation feels like the Gibson/Wilson situation. Gibson disappears when he's playing off the ball, and it seems to effect his play on the other end too. Truth be told I'm not sure why Adelaide keep bringing in import PGs when they have Gibson, although it's hard to argue with the Randle signing.

I don't think Randle is a bad defender, but DJ is not exactly a presence on D, and Peach is all hustle but not a rim protector.

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Kobe24  
Years ago

Imagine throwing a big body like Harrington in the mix on D and waving goodbye to Ebi, can only dream! Biggest selling point would be we will keep you in game shape, and you get to go against Childress. Money wouldn't be the issue for this guy imo. Would definitely cause some issue for opposition offences and give the 36ers a lot more balance on offense. DJ could quietly go about getting his big numbers and wouldn't have to deal with the defensive loads he is absorbing a the moment.

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PeterJohn  
Years ago

paul - agree about the pace difference but that alone for me doesn't explain why 36ers were, on average outscoring opponents early in the season and being outscored later in the season.

The point about teams who like to switch sounds more plausible. It's consistent with teams deciding that strategy is the way to beat the Sixers and changing their games accordingly.

Bear - I'll bite. I assume you're referring to Sydney having had the chance for Harrington to get fitter and start playing well and Webster returning to NZ. So these teams have improved from when they first played the Sixers in games 1-4.

That then begs the question, what do the Sixers do to be able to beat these teams again? And how will the current 36ers shape up against Melbourne and Illawarra, given the outside defensive problems that have been exposed in the last 4 games. Those teams thrive on that and we have 7 games against those two clubs. Current form would have us struggling to go better than 2-5 there.


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Anonymous  
Years ago

I reckon Hodgson starting would help,

Given he also isnt doing great offensively, id bring Gibbo off the bench, split him and Randle up a little more, so you always have one of them playing the pg but less together, also it might make Gibbo play more agressively if he has to actually earn his minutes.

I wouldnt mind seeing how a starting 5 of

Hodgson
Johnson
Walker
Creek
Randle

goes, Randle and Johnson are the scorers, Creek and Walker give you athleticism and hustle, Hodgson rim protection,

Could put Sobey or Teys in for Walker and Creek back to SF too.

The faster pace probably hurts the defense but Joeys style is fast.

Id get Randle, Ervin, DJ to watch some games of 2014 and get them playing like that with Randle playing Ervins role, i think they are similar players so no reason why the combinations cant work.

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PeterJohn  
Years ago

Kobe24 - does Harrington fix the outside defensive issue or does he just improve the inside help when DJ gets caught having to switch on penetration, which others have suggested is part the 36ers' problem ATM?

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PeterJohn  
Years ago

Kobe24 - and does Harrington in for Ere make this look more like the 2015 version 2 Sixers (i.e., with Harrington for Motum and Randle for Wilson)?

How long before Harrington might be available?

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Kobe24  
Years ago

I really dont know, I never saw him as a defensive specialist as such, but man he is a big boy. Giving DJ some help down low from a guy that is very hard to back down on can only help. Im very concerned about what Ogilvy is going to do to the 36ers and DJ's foul count in the future.

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FYI  
Years ago

36ers really need Hodgson to get back to a game 1 groove to be able to rest DJ. That is the value that Schenscher brought to the 36ers

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Kobe24  
Years ago

The more i look at the way the season is unfolding the more i think the 36ers beat a YMCA team in that first game. Hodgson doesnt seem to get into any sort of groove, before he is in foul trouble or benched for a mistake. Joey needs to let the guy develop on the court.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Coaching!!!

Let's be frank he is a short term coach who recruits imports poorly and hasn't expanded or changed our culture as promised!

Time for a fresh approach Gordie McLeod anyone??

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Kobe24  
Years ago

Ive wanted Joey moved on for a while, but the players seem to love him. A GF series will usually get you a few extra years to try and succeed, but he is starting to walk on slightly thinner ice imo.

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Kobe24  
Years ago

Having said all that, Joey aint going anywhere, so no point starting the sack the coach routine. He is here for a while longer now Lemanis got the Bullets gig, so hopefully he just leaves the imports selections and defensive strategies to someone else...

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Anonymous  
Years ago

"How long before Harrington might be available?"

After next weekend.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

"Having said all that, Joey aint going anywhere, so no point starting the sack the coach routine. He is here for a while longer now Lemanis got the Bullets gig, so hopefully he just leaves the imports selections and defensive strategies to someone else..."

Just because the Bullets gig is now off of the table doesn't mean Joey will want to comeback next season.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

For all of those suggesting DJ's defense is potentially a factor in the 36ers problems - you have NFI!

Perimeter defense is our problem, not interior! Fix the perimeter D and the interior D will improve out of sight. Adding to that, we have a coach with no defensive strategy whatsoever...his strategy is cause enough disruption to make the offense miss, grab the rebound and then run it back down there throats. Problem with that is, if you're taking the ball out of the net more than off the ring your game plan goes out the window - no plan B!

Gibbo hasn't looked like he wants to play D all season, Creek is a good but overrated defender, Teys has been injured or on limited mins, Walker is foul prone, Ebi couldn't stay in front of an elephant, teams are exploiting Randle and Joeys game plan on the pick causing mismatches and Sobey gets little time.

For one game I would just like to see Joeys instruction to be fight over screens for a bit, then go under them for a bit then switch on them for a bit...keep mixing things up (unless 1 is severely getting exploited) and keep the offense guessing.

Our other problem is hiring your mate as your import when he is over the hill and out of shape.

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PeterJohn  
Years ago

Anon^
While I don't necessarily disagree, why was the defence apparently working in the first few games? Is it simply that other teams have worked out a strategy to beat our defence or has removing McNeail and adding Randle changed the on-court dynamic and led to more defensive breakdowns?

My feeling is that the 36ers were a quite different team at the start of this year than at the end of last year. Likewise for most of the other teams. In the first few games, they caught other teams still settling their on-court chemistry and tactics while presenting a different look themselves.

After those first few games, other teams have gelled and coaches have realised you can still beat the 36ers from the perimeter and penetration.

Randle's arrival has introduced a faster pace, as paul observed, and led to Gibson reprising his regular disappearing act. Randle's small size may be a factor as well.

All of this has led to higher scoring games with the 36ers on the wrong end of the results.

I've no idea how to fix that with the current personnel. Gibson is too inconsistent to rely on. Creek no longer seems to offer the defensive toughness he has shown in the past. I can't see a lock-down defender who can take on and contain the Goulding, Blanchfield, Webster, Lisch, Beal type players week after week.

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Touch the rim  
Years ago

McNeail was actually a really promising player. I don't get the Kenyon bashing here, he showed a lot at the Blitz.

Although Randle is a better player, I think McNeail would have deferred to Gibbo a lot more which would keep him mentally checked in for the whole 40 minutes. It's a real shame the way Gibbo has treated this last month after the way he started the season. Can anyone explain why his play is so bipolar?

Also, if you look back, their wins have come in lower-scoring games. Funnily enough those were the games Gibbo dominated. When he's engaged and dominating the ball, he 1) plays better defensively and 2) slows the pace down just enough to ensure they are getting good shots amd aren't out of control. Some of the crap Randle chucks up impacts not just the offence but the defence in turn. Defensively I'd say Adelaide are the victims of their own offence. Playing fast doesn't seem to suit them on the other end. What do you do against a running team? You run back.

Some token pressure on the inbounder and ball-handling guard wouldn't go astray either. Notice when Adelaide play well they do that too?

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PeterJohn  
Years ago

Touch the Rim - McNeail's injury probably contributed to his deference to Gibson.

Gibson's inconsistency bemuses everyone - probably the man himself as well! His best is so very good but it's rare and seems to come when expectations are lower. e.g., Boomers games where he comes off the bench or is expected to be more of a role player; and when the 36ers are missing key players and are not expected to do well. He's produced some purlers in those situations.

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mystro  
Years ago

The Sixers played well against a NZ squad missing Pledger, Abercrombie & Webster and had a bunch of development kids playing in their place along with a new import who was finding his feet in Charles Jackson.
This inflated Adelaide's fans hopes and dreams for the season and now reality has set in.

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AngusH  
Years ago

Agree re: McNeail. I was skeptical based on his pedigree, but in the blitz he looked solid - a smart guard who doesn't look to force the action.
You can look back in hindsight and say the injury and how it happened was stupid, but I think he was a quality signing for probably a reasonable amount of $$$.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Keep in mind McNeail barely played when he did play either so the defence falling away now probably has a lot more to do with teams scouting us and working us out and to a degree exploiting Randle.

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Touch the rim  
Years ago

Peter, even if he were 100 per cent healthy McNeail would never take the number of shots and dominate the amount of ball that Randle is. I watched the Blitz intently and they had a decent balance there. Not mind-blowing but they were working on it.

Joey's persistence with the import PGs next to Gibbo is a wrong move imo. Get a specialist 2-man who can run the floor, shoot the three and defend. Someone like... Willie Green. Where's that guy at?

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Touch the rim  
Years ago

Also, what are the odds that Gibbo goes to Brisbane next year? He's 'Joey's boy' but what if he and Lemanis struck up something at the Boomers? Plus there's probably the carrot that he'd have the keys to that team

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Why hasn't there been any of the ballhog comments about Randle that were thrown about a lot with Wilson and Ervin, even after Randle had a complete shocker against NZ and cost any chance of winning.

Is it because the usual suspects had written off Wilson and Ervin as bad signings from the start and were trying to justify their original comments all season even when those guys were playing well.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Peter John, IMO relegate Gibbo to the bench and start Teys at SG next to Randle.

Teys job, lock down on the oppositions best scorer from PG-SF position and be a presence on offense shooting the 3 when open...he is more than capable of that.

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Iggle Piggle  
Years ago

Hodgson has the height to be a rim protector but lacks speed and mobility for the up tempo offence the Sixers are running. I feel the team needs to cut Ere for a athletic rim protector, Gladness being my perfect example. Just my opinion last time I mentioned this plenty disagreed.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Haven't gone down hill suddenly. Got real lucky against Sydney and only beat NZ in game 1 because so many were missing.
Should be 2 wins so don't complain.

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snooch  
Years ago

Also, what are the odds that Gibbo goes to Brisbane next year? He's 'Joey's boy' but what if he and Lemanis struck up something at the Boomers? Plus there's probably the carrot that he'd have the keys to that team


I actually wonder whether Joey is hoping the same thing tbh. Not sure this "Joey's boy" thing is a strong as people think it is..

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Gibbo likes playing for Joey, why do you think he only re-signed for 1 year.

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Isaac  
Years ago

Plus there's probably the carrot that he'd have the keys to that team
Gibson could have the keys to this team if he pushed himself...

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Does anyone seriously think Joey can coach?

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proud  
Years ago

I love DJ, he's an elite Dream Team scorer but you have to admit that opposition teams going inside to his opponent and trying to get him in foul trouble so well done to them but why they aren't giving more minutes to Hodgson is beyond me, he isn't that much of a liability on offence, his game reminds me of Jervis and I think Hodgson should be used the same way, offering rebounding, rim protection and cheapies around the basket.

I've mentioned on here before that I don't think Gibbo is hungry enough and surely giving Teys or Sobey 5 minutes extra a game, their hunger and output will be far greater than what Gibbo is giving

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Al Harrington more likely to sign with Hawks as second import, is what I'm hearing

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