New Zealand
Perth
Melbourne
Illawarra

Adelaide
Cairns
Townsville
Sydney

NZ vs Perth in the GF....again.

Perth
New Zealand
Illawarra
Adelaide

Melbourne
Townsville
Cairns
Sydney

NZ, Perth, Hawks, United.... then the rest will play it out without much interest from myself. Crocs probably finish 5th if Samhan puts in ok, because they just dont stop playing hard on any possession.

NZB
PER
MEL
ADL

ILL
CRN
TSV
SYD

NZ are playing great ball and have the split on PER, barring some meltdown or Corey re-called to the NBA, NZB will be on top and likely win it all.

Dare I say it, Charles Jackson is better than Ibeks and is one of the few who can guard Jawai 1 on 1.

Marcus Camby any reason besides perhaps blind faith you think Adelaide will be there infront of Illawarra... Hawks deserve the favourtism to make the 4 based on performance surely.

Illawarra deserve some favourtism to make the 4th.

They however have significant weaknesses in their game, namely rebounding and defence. It has been shown on more than one occasion that other than AJ, rebounding is weak in this team.

Thats not to say the Sixers have no weaknesses, they do, but I have faith that Joey will make the right adjustments.

Please...this is not a comment of Wright > Bevo.

NZ cut the nets down in Perth's new stadium before Perth did so while home court is an advantage I doubt NZ are sweating that they have no chance of winning it all without it

1st and 2nd will be a tight battle between NZB and Perth.

They will be at least a couple of wins clear of Melb and Illawarra, who will be fighting for 3rd and 4th.

Perth
NZ
Yernited
Hawks

The rest are ZERO chance of making it.

What makes me sad is that with that Townsville really impressive win the other night, their Stadium still wasnt full.

What can they do to get the people in? Beg, steal people?

Crocs should relocate to Perth or Melbourne.

With their hustle, effort, spirit they'd fill stadiums.

I've heard that in Townsville many shops are closed, and the streets are empty. Based on that, the economy has taken a hit.

If true, this would help to explain the drop in sponsorships and crowds.

Can anyone confirm?

On the ladder, United’s last 4 games are: Perth, Illawarra and NZ all on the road. And then NZ at home.

They really need to keep winning now, because that is a tough, tough, tough finish!

Townsville economy had been hit hard by the drop in commodity prices. There is a nickel refinery in Townsville (owned by Palmer) that is struggling. There is the army base there and the centre is a hub for the FIFO mines too.

With the mining boom over, not much money, so I am not surprised with the closed shops.

The number of mid-week and away games hurts Townsville too I believe. The schedule means that the team can't build momentum with the fans as there's not a consistent slot. e.g. Melbourne/Sydney seem to get the Sunday afternoon, NZB seem to get the Thursday slot. As a fan, if you know Saturday is the time they play, you can plan around it. Fans love consistency.

Top 4 already settled but if adelaide can win every game and Illawarra and Melbourne lose more Adelaide can just sneak in.We will see in a month.

Adelaide are two games behind Illawarra with three games left in the series, so those games will be crucial to the 36ers' chances.

As always it will depend on how the Cats' veterans hold up in the run home.
Jawai has added impact, but not youth. Cats have looked good at this point before, only to fade in the final leg.
The upside is that Martin is fresh, Prather is getting better every game, and injuries to Knight or Redhage are not as devastating as they once were. Still, I think the key to their 'ship chances is keeping Knight healthy.

It's New Zealand's too lose at this point I think. Just one too many weapons and very well drilled.

It's New Zealand's too lose at this point I think

New zeland national team

Head to head is take NZ over Perth every time in a playoff series. Regular season won't be an issue for where they finish imo.

Yeah and that was a few years back, whats the point of that. I dont think NZ couldve beaten the '93 Magic team with a young Rob Rose either....

Perth has not beaten NZ in a finals series.

NZ has never beaten a full strength Perth in a finals series.

It's not Perth or New Zealand's to lose. One of them will probably win it, but they'll have to play bloody good basketball to do so.

Each to their own, i just think personally that NZ are far and away the true team to beat come finals time. Those boys go into beast mode.

Their history against Perth is very tight games and very tight series, they have rarely 'beast moded' the Wildcats, it's more often the other way around if it's a lop-sided game.

The fact the two teams have held serve at home against each other this season suggests another really tight series if they meet. Flip of the coin between these two for mine.

If it comes down to yet another Perth v NZ Final, odds are its gonna go with home court advantage. For that reason alone, I hope its not.

NZ looks a slightly better team for mine. More well rounded and balanced.

And they also seem to have the better of this particular matchup.

First time in Perth they lost by 3, playing without Webster and Pledger- had a chance to tie it at the buzzer but Jackson stuffed up the final play- 2nd time in Perth they shot 16-30 from the line and lost by 6. Hit their free throws and that game was theirs. Meanwhile in the last matchup in NZ it was tight until NZ blew it out in the last 5 minutes. But NZ never really looked like losing.

Having said that, Perth has looked a lot stronger since Martin came back and Prather has hit his straps- so it's fair for Perth fans point out that they haven’t really faced NZ at full strength. If the series was starting today I’d probably tip whoever had home court advantage.

"Hit their free throws and that game was theirs."

But NZ don;t hit their free throws and haven't, all season. As a team they're 208/35 for the season (64%).

About two thirds of their free throws are taken by teh two Jacksons, Pledger and Vukona (201/325). Collectively. those four guys have shot 55% (110/201). Cedric Jackson has taken the most free throws (77) and has shot the worst (49%).

So their free throw shooting ain't gonna get better any time soon.

That said, in a Perth/NZ grand final series, home court will decide it because this year's dodgy refereeing in those two venues makes me think that will be a factor.

Perth are a lock for top spot, barring injury to Knight and Martin.

NZ and Melbourne will be close for 2nd and 3rd. I favour Melbourne, just, to hold onto that.

Illawarra will take 4th ahead of Adelaide but, with the injury to Penney and their lack of defence, I don't see them getting to 3rd.

Good point PeterJohn- I hadn't factored that in. Even at their season average they would've only got about 18 or 19 out of 30 then- pretty horrible!

Looking at the numbers and key info:

As it stands:

Perth are 12-5.
- 6 of their remaining 11 are at home.
- Have been superb since Martin's return.
- Have played the entire season series vs NZ. Have 1 left against Illawarra and 2 vs Melb.

United are 11-5.
- Started 9-0. 2-5 since and the wins have not been convincing (a pair of 3 point wins- an ugly, low scoring affair in Townsville and one on their home court vs Adelaide).
-Record is flattering because of their easy schedule so far- playing weak and/or undermanned opponents, mostly on their home floor.
- Only 5 of their last 12 are at home.
- Have 2 games remaining vs each of NZ, Perth and Illawarra.
- No more games vs Townsville.

NZ are 10-5.
- 6 of remaining 13 at home.
- Are 9-2 since Webster's return. The losses were the controversial dying seconds loss in Melbourne where they were missing Vukona and Wesley. And the 6 point loss in Perth.
- Have 2 left vs Melb and 3 left vs Illawarra (2 of which are in NZ).

Illawarra are 8-7.
- 6 of remaining 13 at home.
- 2 left vs Melb, 3 left vs NZ (2 in NZ) and 1 vs Perth (in Perth).
- Have been superb since they got Rhys Martin back.

My predictions:

Perth and NZ: 20-22 wins.
United and Illawarra 15-18 wins.

Adelaide, 8-9, have shown themselves to be a solid team with great firepower when they get going, led by Randle. Have been in many classic games including the 25 pt comeback win against Syd, losing from 15 up with 4 to go vs Townsville, and being beaten on the buzzer vs Starks at home, and then travelling to Cairns and beating them up there in another Randle classic. I expect more of the same for the remainder of the season, and they should land somewhere between 12 and 15 wins. The remaining matches against Illawarra and Melbourne are key to their playoff chances- if either of those teams stumble, Adelaide awaits.

Cairns is the interesting smoky for mine. They’re 6-9, but they have 8 home games left of their remaining 13. I tend to think they’ll finish on 12-14 wins and miss out because they lack the firepower to go on the kind of winning run necessary to peg back the win deficit. But you never know.

Sydney (3-12) and Townsville (6-12) are out of the playoff picture.

I have Cairns as a dark horse (is that okay to say any more?) too. IIRC their splits are bad and would keep them out of the 4 in case of any tied results. However, I don't think it'll get to that.

As LV implied, teams will need a winning record to play finals this year and I think that's a bridge too far for Cairns and Adelaide at this stage.

Usual disclaimer - barring injuries to key players.

BTW, I think teams are gradually figuring out how to defend Webster better and that will affect how hard NZ have to work for its wins over the rest of the season. That's why I just favour Melbourne for 2nd.

I look forward to having them prove me wrong - as they do almost every year!

I'd like to thank Melbourne for making my forecast of them finishing third look completely stupid. Given the atrocious defensive performance against the bottom team, I got that one totally wrong.

"BTW, I think teams are gradually figuring out how to defend Webster better and that will affect how hard NZ have to work for its wins over the rest of the season. That's why I just favour Melbourne for 2nd."

NZ didn't rely on Webster last season and once they have their full team clicking they won't this season either. With Wesley and Vukona back to fitness providing post targets their offence won't rely as much on Webster and Abercrombie shooting off pin-downs, hand-offs etc.