ROFL

Some of the key points right now:

From Melbourne United's point of view:

- Win ANY two of the last three games and they are guaranteed top spot. (@Ill, @NZ, Vs NZ).

- Beat Illawarra tomorrow night and they are guaranteed to finish top 2, even if they lose both vs NZ.

From Adelaide's point of view:

- Beat NZ and they've guaranteed themselves a top 4 spot. Lose and it remains mathematically possible that they could miss out.

Someone else can work out what's going on for the Cats and Hawks....

Sorry point 2 re: Melb is incorrect.

If they beat Illawarra they lose both vs NZ it's still possible that Adelaide could finish ahead of them.

So, to adjust that point- if they beat the Hawks then MU will finish ahead of the Hawks, guaranteed. That's all it means.

That assumes Adelaide has the split on Melb (Off the top of my head Adelaide's wins were by more?)

Can someone work out all the splits and post them here :-)

^you've cleared things up a little.

I think the Wildcats need to win one more game and they are guaranteed top 2 - but then can still finish first if Melb loose two of their next 3

OK, I think this is the split (although NBL.com.au is VERY hard to interrogate for data)

MEL (17/8) (@ILL, @NZB, NZB)
won the series against Per (3-1), will complete their series against ILL this round, but are 2-1 (277-279) so a Hawks win will get the series. Are 2-2 against ADL, but 335-342, so series to ADL. Are 1-1 against NZ, so they have 2 games to go. Went 3-1 against CNS. Need 2/3 wins to secure minor premiers

If Perth finish on same wins, then MEL go top.

PER (16/9) (SYD, @SYD, ADL)
Have the series over ILL, ADL, CNS, but lost series to NZB and MEL
Probably can't finish lower than 2nd.

ILL (15/10) (MEL, TSV, ADL)
Great to have the final 3 games at home and would need to get all 3, plus have Perth only win 1 to just to second spot. The ADL series is still in the air, but have the series over NZB, so for NZB to jump them, they need to lose all 3 and get NZB to bag 4/4.

ADL (14/10) (NZB, @CNS, @ILL, PER)
Can't go higher than 3rd. Must win tonight to knock NZB out of the race.


NZB (12/12) (@ADL, CNS, MEL, @MEL)
CNS (11/14) (ADL, @NZB, @TSV)
They could steal 4th, but not from ILL and need to beat ADL by 11, then hope ADL go 0/4)


Still anyone's game. Teams just need to keep winning

To underline RMQ's and Jack's points about how open the playoff picture is, Melbourne are the only team mathematically guaranteed playoffs and there's a 1/16 chance (mathematical chance - based on form it's a much smaller real-world chance than that) that they'll finish third or fourth. Even Perth have a 1/2000 chance of missing out altogether. They also have a 1/8 chance of finishing third or lower.

Adelaide are a 1/40 chance of finishing top and Illawarra a 1/20 chance of going top.

Great last couple of rounds coming up.

The last game was the battle for top spot. MU knew that and came away with the win. Hard to see them faltering from here.

Perth need to avoid complacency, which has cost them this season. They should easily account for the Kings, but must stay focussed.
The final game against Adelaide I was anticipating as a great battle, but not without Randle. Again, Perth need to stay focussed, get the wins, lock in 2nd spot, and pray Adelaide can topple MU in the semis.

I think Adelaide will be happy to just stay in the 4, and pray Randle recovers for the finals.

Great summary Jack

"The last game was the battle for top spot. MU knew that and came away with the win. Hard to see them faltering from here."

While that win gave them a massive advantage, their run home isn't ideal. Two away games, one vs the Hawks and the other vs Breakers for United. Those are not guaranteed wins by any means.

If Perth win all three, and United lose two, Perth takes top.

Codicil to Supernintendo Chalmers' point is that Illawarra can steal the season split if they beat Melbourne by 3 or more points in their remaining game (in Illawarra).

There's even a remote chance Illawarra could finish top. i.e., Illawarra wins all 3, Perth loses 2 or 3, Melbourne loses against Illawarra plus at least one other loss.

Teams 1 to 6 all have a lot to play for in their remaining games.

Even Townsville (7th) have the real prospect of stealing FNQ bragging rights if they can steal 6th place from Cairns. That would mean having to beat Cairns in the remaining game between those two teams. That should get a few into the Swamp.

LK could hardly have hoped for a more exciting finish to the regular season!

"Codicil to Supernintendo Chalmers' point is that Illawarra can steal the season split if they beat Melbourne by 3 or more points in their remaining game (in Illawarra)."

So does that mean if Perth, Illawarra and United finish equal, Perth will be on top of those three due to the mini ladder?

A ladder within a ladder?

NBL Inception!

When you see a ref make a correct call, you know you're still in a dream.

No wonder I'm so tired.

I can actually see Melb losing the two away games from here and losing top spot, NZ have everything to play for and Hawks game wont be an easy task.