LV
Years ago

Tigers 2013/14 vs United 2016/17

I think a comparison between the 2014 semi finalist Tigers, and the 2017 United squad (minus imports) illustrates how incredibly far the NBL has come in 3 years. Consider United's imports:

- Cedric Jackson- possibly the 3rd greatest PG in NBL history. Definitely top 5.

- Ramone Moore- a combo guard with a solid European resume behind him (averaged 14.1ppg, 4.5apg, 3.8rpg shooting at 50% in Ukraine in 2015, averaged 14.5ppg, 2.7apg, 3.7rpg and shooting at 49% in Lithuania in 2016. Can shoot the three, drive to the hoop and his assist numbers suggest he’s an adept play maker too).

- Devin Williams- a big man, known for his rebounding and energy in the key. Had a solid college career, in 2016 made the second team of the Big 12 conference in the NCAA. Has had a strong pre season with United.

Now consider the depth chart of United’s roster, sans the above guys, with minute spreads and compare to the 2014 Melbourne Tigers team that lost it’s semi final 2-1 to Adelaide:

Majok 25 /Andersen 15
Andersen 17 /Wesley 20/Smith Milner 3
Blanchfield 15/Barlow 20/Odigie 5
Goulding 30/Blanchfield 10
Tomlinson 30/Adnam 10

Tigers 13/14: (These minutes are minutes actually played, may not exactly total due to players who missed games, or played different positions etc):

Morrison 27/Macmillan 7
Wortho 35 /Ballinger 15
Walker 24 /Greer 15 /Odigie 6
Goulding 36/Farrahkan 11 (Split with PG)
Tomlinson 31 /Farrahkan 11 (Split with SG)

Farrahkan gives the 2014 Tigers a clear depth advantage in the back court. 2017 United has more talent at the small forward and power forward spots. A lot of it hinges on David Andersen- based on his Boomers and European career, I’d say Andersen makes United’s entire frontcourt a superior group. However, he’s 36 years old and yet to show his wares in the NBL- unlike Wortho, a 4 time all NBL first teamer. But Wesley is clearly better than an aging Ballinger as the main big coming off the bench, likewise Barlow over Greer at small forward.

You’d probably give it to the 2014 Tigers on the basis that Farrahkan gives them another solid player in the back court, but it’s very competitive. Add in either Jackson or Moore to the backcourt, and it’s a shoe in- easy win for United 2017, and that’s without adding the other backcourt import or Devin Williams.

This shows how far the NBL has come in 3 seasons- that Tigers semi finalist of 2013/14 wouldn't win many games in season 2016/17.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

They didn't win many in 2013/14 either.

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NBL Fan  
Years ago

From memory I thought Farrahkan was somewhat average.

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LV  
Years ago

Farrahkan struggled in his first few games after joining the team part way through the season, then got going. At his best, he was good. He struggled again late in the season and didn't have much impact during the semi final series- from memory, he had injury niggles.

But in the middle stretch of the season- he averaged 14.4ppg over a 12 game stretch, scoring at least 9 points in every single game.

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LV  
Years ago

Farrahkan was- along with Wortho- the 2nd scoring option on that team.

It was basically Goulding or bust, but Farrakhan and Wortho were literally the only two other guys on the entire squad who were dangerous scorers. After that, you were looking at Lucas Walker- who had a career best year- Ballinger's jump shooting, and Morrison doing some work but only ever within 4 foot of the rim.

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paul  
Years ago

My recollection is also very different to LV's. The Farrakhan I watched had the occasional good game but mostly struggled and dropped out of favour.

As for comparing these two teams, one of them has yet to play a game in anger so at the moment it tells us nothing about the NBL! The game's not played on paper. Remember how far people said the league had come last season yet Perth and NZ were in the GF again.

The league looks to have taken another step forward this year but the proof will be in the pudding.

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Cram  
Years ago

The league does look in good shape this year, but it has done so many other times in the last 30 years. The key is continued long term success. Until proven otherwise, this appears to be another bubble created by rich people with nothing remotely sustaimable.

How good was that Eddie Groves Bullets championship team? Or the firrpower kings? Or the Dragons?

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Anonymous  
Years ago

So why does anyone seriously care? The past is past.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Don't you mean the past has passed anon

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LV  
Years ago

Good point Paul- the game isn't played on paper. This season may well end up a disappointment for United, like 2014/15 was and like many claim that 2015/16 was.

But- with 6 or 7 teams looking talented and deep on paper, most with well credentialled NBL coaches, it's not a stretch to say the NBL has improved greatly since a few years ago, even without a regular season game having been played.

A few of these teams will turn their paper talent into seriously good basketball teams- the question is just "which ones?". If everything goes well, we might even have a super competitive league with 6 or 7 very good teams (by historical NBL standards of the past 10-15 years). Last year we had 5- and the talent levels have risen again.

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Southern Joe  
Years ago

Two differences before you even compare any past team to this season.

1. Now 3 imports rather than 2.

2. Marquee salary cap rule.

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LV  
Years ago

Also Paul, I don't think it's really fair to use the "Perth and NZ" argument with regards to last year.

Illawarra and Melbourne were both unlucky, in that they both drew the one semi final opponent that had beaten them badly during the regular season. For the Hawks, they had Lisch's injury to deal with during the semi finals as well. If the Hawks had drawn NZ for the semi finals- we might have seen a Illawarra vs Melbourne grand final- after all, from memory Illawarra swept NZ 4-0 and Melbourne beat Perth 3-1 during the season. A lot of this comes down to matchups.

Also, NZ only made the playoffs off the back of Randle's injury. They smashed Adelaide while Randle was missing, covering the head to head tie breaker line and then finishing two games clear while Adelaide kept losing during Randle’s absence.

Luck comes into it a lot, and no doubt Adelaide were given a tough blow with the NBL’s best player getting injured at a crucial point. There were probably about 5 teams who were favourites (or very close to it) at one point or another last season- that alone tells us how competitive things were. Not bad for an 8 team professional competition!

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LV  
Years ago

The point is: If Randle didn't get injured, it would have been very unlikely that NZ makes the playoffs. His injury opened the door for NZ. Adelaide had won 7 out of their past 8 games (including the game he got injured) and he was ripping it up, scoring over 25 points in the 6 games preceding the injury game. He gets injured and then they lose 4 games in a row and miss the playoffs.

He did come back for the last 2, but he didn't look 100% fit, and struggled to regain his form. It's a bit of a hard luck story, really.

And it was his hard luck that opened the door for NZ.

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LV  
Years ago

@ Joe- of course, the existence of multiple marquee players, and luxury tax type mechanism means we've gone from a hard cap (like say, AFL) to a soft cap (like NBA). And the extra imports make a difference too.

There could be other reasons too, perhaps struggling European economies and non-payments from clubs? These would make Australia a more preferable option to players in comparison, vs years ago. I remember Dave Barlow making some comments to that effect.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

This thread is comparing a team that barely won half of its games three years ago in a weaker competition, to a current team which looks great on paper but hasn't actually done anything yet, and its meant to be proof of the league improving?

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LV  
Years ago

It's comparing a team who was a semi finalist in the NBL not long ago, with a team who is one of the 3 main favourites for this year's NBL. And showing how, on paper, this year's team is vastly, vastly, superior.

You could do the same exercise for any team (except Adelaide) and show how, on paper, they are superior to that Tigers team of 2013/14. Now- not every impressive "paper team" turns into a strong basketball team- but many do.

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Dazz  
Years ago

How many different ways can we discuss the same topic?

Yes, obviously the league has attracted on average a much higher calibre of player for this season.
What remains to be seen is:
Whether this actually improves the games,
Whether it gets more bums on seats,
Does it improve or diminish league balance, and
Is it sustainable.

Cos yes, we have have all seen the spurts occasioned by bored rich guys throwing their money (Or in the case of Sydney, other people's money) around for a couple of years, and ultimately they caused more harm than good.

Personally, I find the notion that "Better" Players equals "Better League" to be absolutely infantile.
Any idiot could hatch a plan to pay more money to players. Finding people to TAKE the money, has never been the NBL's problem.

What concerns me, is that considering Basketball has always lost money in this country, nobody has actually put forward a model for how the league is going to even break-even, let alone cover these increased costs. It's like the "Underpants Gnomes."
Step 1 is spend more money on players, Step 3 is make profit, and nobody has bothered to figure out step 2.

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LV  
Years ago

But Dazz, is making money even a realistic aim?

Consider that last year, only 6 clubs from the major football codes made any kind of profit, if you exclude the AFL.

In fact, From AFL, A League, NRL and Union, every single club in the country made a small profit (under 1 mil) or a loss. The only exceptions being Hawthorn, West Coast, Melbourne Victory and Brisbane Broncos.

To me, that says sport is just a tough business.

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LV  
Years ago

In other words, if most of the clubs in NRL, Union and A League are losing money, then what can basketball do differently in order to make money?

Sport seems to rely on wealthy people who do it for the love of the game. We should be thankful for them and hope LK sticks around as long as possible!

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LV  
Years ago

Oh and another thing- of the 11 clubs In the AFL who managed to make (mostly small) profits last year, most of them get revenue from pokies!

If it wasn't for the poor grandmas giving away their life savings on the slot machines, even AFL clubs would be in losses too. Sad, but true.

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Cram  
Years ago

"If you exclude the AFL". Ha. Classic lv.

All of those other sports have a combination of general public support, crowds, television coverage, history and corporate ties that the nbl has never been able to compete with. Union is still in a growth phase professionally and is doing well. A league definitely relies on rich benefactors and the NRL probably has trouble coming long term.

No other professional league in the country (the world?) Has had anywhere near the turnover of clubs as the nbl. Its different worlds. That affects our ability to ever get close to the other sports on those above factors. And it aint happening any time soon

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Southern Joe  
Years ago

The problem is the reliance of getting bums on seats to make money. Its a very low glass ceiling given that hardly anyone plays out of an arena of 10k capacity or better.

Our NBL clubs need to find other income streams via merch, sponsors, & more diehards to support their team.

There's probably other revenues that could be explored as well.

I see s huge ratio of NBA merch getting around compared to NBL stuff. Thats the first thing that needs changing.

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LV  
Years ago

All true Cram. That's exactly my point. If, after 25 years straight economic growth in this country, well established clubs in big sports can't turn a profit, and those that do are relying on gambling revenue to subsidise their operations... Well it's naturally going to be very difficult for the NBL. My hope is that the league can be just viable enough to keep LK in the game

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KET  
Years ago

What concerns me, is that considering Basketball has always lost money in this country, nobody has actually put forward a model for how the league is going to even break-even, let alone cover these increased costs. It's like the "Underpants Gnomes."
Step 1 is spend more money on players, Step 3 is make profit, and nobody has bothered to figure out step 2.


I agree - with that being said, at least LK brings established business nous and resources which haven't been available for the NBL management before.

"If you exclude the AFL".


Even some AFL sides lack profitability despite all the resources and TV revenue at their disposal.

There's probably other revenues that could be explored as well.


If rich owners are going to come in and splash the cash, i'd like to see them incorporate alternate revenue streams to be attached to the license like property etc. which AFL clubs do. That way its possible for the Club as an entity to profit with alternate revenue streams cross-subsidising the basketball operations. Even more ideally, the club is eventually owned by the members AFL style.

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