Harold Archburger
Years ago
My NBL Predictions!
Predictions:
1 - Brisbane
2 - Sydney
3 - Melbourne
4 - Adelaide
5 - Townsville
6 - Cairns
7 - Perth
8 - Hunter
9 - Wollongong
10 - NZ
11 - West Sydney
Brisbane
My tip to take it out this year. There are questions about whether this team can gel, but I reckon they can. Bradtke is a huge coup, and I think he'll still be good for 15 & 10 this season. I expect Brannen to put up similar numbers. The serviceable Daniel Egan will back up the 3 & 4 positions. Sam Mackinnon will probably start at the 3 spot, and between the starting front court, I expect they'll reel in 30-odd rebounds a game. The guard department is where this team excels. Even at 38, Derek Rucker is still one of the premier guards in the NBL, and due to the Bullets depth, they will be able to limit his minutes, and maximize his production. Stephen Black averaged nearly 20ppg last season, and I'd expect the same again, with roughly 5 assists. Off the bench, they'll be able to rotate Mick Hill & Lanard Copeland through the 2 & possibly 3 spots, giving them instant offense off the bench. Both are capable of filling up the score sheet in quick time, and on their night, could easily got for 25. Rounding out the guard rotation is Adam Gibson, a rookie from Tasmania. Adam is a good shooter, and apparently developed his PG skills while at the AIS. Joey Wright has the talent at his disposal, and I believe he'll get this veteran side to gel together to win the 05/06 Championship
Sydney
Coming off a three-peat last season, the Kings will be among the contenders again in 05/06. Having retained CJ Bruton for 1 more season, he will again lead this team as their starting PG. Jason Smith will line up in the 2 spot, and between them, they will likely rack up close to 40ppg. I've not seen Mark Worthington play, but from all reports he's the real deal and will suit up at SF. Ben Knight & Rolan Roberts will hold down the low post, and while both are inconsistent, they're capable of doing damage down low. Luke Kendall (who had a super start to 04/05 before injury intervened) will back up both the 1 & 2 positions, and will push for the 6th man award. At 24, he's still on the up, and I expect him to have a great season off the bench. Defensive stalwart Brad Sheridan will be used off the bench at the 2 & 3 positions, likely taking the opponents best scorer while he's on. Luke Martin recently spent time at a Boomers training camp, and competing with the best in the land will only do him good. He's lightning quick, and will provide a boost off the bench for the Kings. Backing up Knight & Roberts will be Brett Wheeler, who has slowed down in recent years. Overall they're a very deep unit, with talent at every position. Shooting for their 4th title in as many years, I predict they'll come up just short.
Melbourne
After defeating Wollongong in round 1 by 41, they seem to be firming as favourites to take it out this season, and I think they'll get close. Anstey returns to his junior club, and has been in great form. Not only did he hit 23 points on the weekend, but he also stroked 3 triples. Talk about stretching the D! Teaming with Anstey inside will be Neil Mottram & David Stiff, who I imagine will split time at the 4 spot. Mottram's production hinges on his ability to stay fit, while Stiff's unorthodox style will cause his opponents headaches. Dave Thomas is back, and will probably have an expanded role this season. His versatility makes him tough to cover (too big for 'smalls', too quick for 'bigs'), and we should see more of his offensive arsenal this year. Backing him up will be Stephen Hoare, who could start for most teams. Rashad Tucker is another who will benefit for the Tigers clean-out, and I suspect he'll return to the form he displayed with the Perth Wildcats a few years back. Look for him to be a triple-double threat, as well as exciting the crowds with his aggressive play, while also returning to the league's top 10 for turnovers. The ageless Darryl McDonald will probably line up as the teams starting PG, but will split time with Daryl Corletto, who knocked 21 against Wollongong. While I wouldn't expect that to be the norm, Corletto will be valuable off the bench, and could average double figures. D-Mac will relish the opportunity to start again, and will start the Tigers running game, as well as wreaking havoc in the passing lanes with his long arms. Another deep lineup, with probably the best 5 man in the competition. So why won't they win? Well, D-Mac is 41, Mottram is injury prone, Tucker hasn't played big minutes in a couple of years, and they have a first year coach. They will definitely be around the mark, however.
Adelaide
The 36ers will again be near the top of the table this season, after returning a very familiar team. They have effectively regained Mark Nash, who missed last season due to injury. Brad Hill is also now a full time member of the team, and he will sure up their bench. David Cooper returns after his most successful NBL season, in which he averaged 7ppg & 7rpg. He's a solid defender, and has apparently improved his range in offense (though he didn't display in vs Perth). Big Paul Rees is back again, but he seems to have slowed considerably (like he wasn't slow enough already!) and I'm not sure how effective he'll be. Dusty Rychart looks to be his usual self, last week gathering POTW for his 22 points & 17 rebounds. Dusty is a tireless worker, who will likely have another 20ppg and 10rpg season. The 36ers have a bit of a glut at the 3 spot. Mark Nash, Jacob Holmes & Oscar Forman are all natural 3 men, but for them to all get the minutes they deserve, they'll have to play out of position. Jacob seems the preferred starter of the group, despite having a disappointing end to the 04/05 season. After a season in the NZBL & tours with the Boomers, I hope he doesn't 'burn out' towards the end of the season. Nashy had a super off season in Tasmania, making the All-Star 5 SEABL team by averaging 24ppg & 14rpg. A great defender, and underrated rebounder, he'll certainly be handy this season. Forman also had a good off season, winning the Woollacott as well as making the touring Boomers squad. Last week, Nash had 27 mins, Jacob 22 & Oscar 15. I think Oscar needs more time to show his stuff (he did average 10 & 6 last season, and was the best 3 point shooter in the league), but where do the minutes come from? One solution is to play Oscar at the 4 spot more often, and slide Jacob and Nashy to the 2 spot in spurts. This would also allow Brett Maher & Willie Farley more of a breather. The dynamic duo should once again average close to 45 points a game, with Maher running the team, and Farley providing the highlights. Having Brad Hill off the bench will be a bonus, as he is capable of coming on and scoring in bunches. The 36ers will win plenty of games (especially at home) but will struggle to contain the good 'bigs' of the league (Bradtke, Anstey, Burgess) and thus, may come up just short. Having said that, if they get hot in the playoffs (ala 2002), I don't think too many teams will be able to stop them.
Townsville
Another team who return the bulk of their 04/05 team. Will Brad Newley step into a starting role? He came off the bench in week 1, but that may have been due to not having a full pre-season with the Crocs, because of national commitments. He scored 24 points in 27 mins against West Sydney, and I have no doubt that if he's given 30-35 minutes a game, he'll average 20+ppg. If he rounds out his game to include hitting the boards harder, finding his team mates more often and keeps improving his defense, this may be his last season in the NBL. Rob Rose keeps on keeping on at the age of 41, but would be more efficient off the bench. John Rillie is still one of the best shooters in the game, and will get his fair share of rebounds & assists to go along with it. Picking up Damon Lowery will be handy, as he can provide a spark off the bench, and should split time at the point with Kelvin Robertson. The down side is that they're both small, and are easy post up targets for bigger guards. Import duo Larry Abney & Casey Calvary will start up front. Calvary averaged 18 & 8 last year, and is solid, if not spectacular. From the reports I've heard Abney will also contribute decent numbers, and bang inside. A dangerous team with proven game winners (Rillie, Rose, Lowery) who may prove too inconsistent to take home the major prize.
Cairns
Cairns have had a fantastic off season, picking up Darnell Mee & Martin Cattalini, both of whom have won multiple championships. Darnell will slide into the starting PG role, shifting Nathan Crosswell to 6th man. Darnell is a proven winner, and one of the best defenders the league has seen. Cattalini's last NBL season yielded averages of 23ppg & 6rpg, and I imagine you'll see a similar output from him again. He's a dangerous inside-outside threat, and an underrated defender. Anthony Stewart & Gary Boodnikoff are both streak shooters, and not much else. Boodnikoff hit 7 3's on his way to 30 points in round 1, but both he & Stewart are wildly inconsistent, and liabilities defensively. Melvin Thomas & Kane Oakley will play the 4 spot, and these two lefties have very different ways of going about their business. Melvin will bang down low (until he invariably pulls his hamstring), while Kane Oakley will score his points on mid-range jumpshots. Oakley will be keen to play well, after a poor 04/05 season. The Taipans season hinges on the fitness of Chris Burgess. Arguably the best big man going around, if he can get himself fit, he'll round out this team perfectly. He's a rebound machine, and quality scorer in the paint. Carins will compete, but ultimately, they're 1 more quality player away from being up with the big boys.
Perth
Showed on the weekend they have quite a way to go. Bailey will excite crowds, but I suspect he'll also be turnover-prone. He'll look to get their running game going, and score some cheap baskets. Defensively, he'll struggle against bigger guards, as he's only about 5'8". Redhage is definitely serviceable and is similar to Dusty Rychart in the way he slips under the radar. Ronaldson can use his body to bang down low, or step outside and knock the 3 ball. Crawford is solid, and should be good for 15/5/5. Along with Redhage & Liam Rush, PC should benefit most from Bailey's up tempo game. Liam Rush seems ready for a breakout year, as evidence by the fact he started last week. He athletic and has a decent outside stroke. Shanahan will be valuable as a back up to PC & Bailey, and occasionally burn teams with his outside shot. Dillon Boucher is a reasonable (though overrated) defender, but won't provide much in the way of offense. Matt Burston & Paul Rogers hold the key to the Wildcats season, I believe. If both can stay fit, the Wildcats will benefit greatly. Rogers is an ex-NBL MVP and while I doubt he'll ever return to that form, he could be good for 15 & 10, while Burston is still developing. He's still only 23 years old, and averaged 14 & 9 in his last full NBL season. Together, they could wear down opposition big men and give Perth a big advantage. Still, this team isn't deep enough to compete for a championship. They should scrape into the playoffs due to the ridiculous 8 team system.
Hunter
The Pirates have lost import duo Brian Wethers & Kavossy Franklin, and the 45ppg they contributed. They've replaced them with combo guard Mike Helms & forward Odell Bradley. Brad Davidson returns as starting PG, and will provide tough-nosed D, and control on offense. Russell Hinder will start along side Ben Melmeth inside, and should provide Hunter two decent targets. Melmeth needs to up his production to something similar to that of his '98 season (22pg, 12rpg) for the Pirates to be successful. I'm not sure he's quite up to that, but something in the order of 18 & 9 is do-able. Helms & Bradley are unlikely to be as good as the previous duo, but the reports I've heard have been reasonably positive. Geordie Cullen & Aaron Trahair will be the first two used off the bench, and should provide quality offense. Cullen averaged 13 & 5 last year, and a similar production is expected this year. Trahair is wildly inconsistent, but on his day can nail triples from range. If he decides he's interested, he could prove to be a handy pickup for the Pirates. I've tipped the Pirates to come 8th, which is putting a lot of faith in their import duo. Again, they scrape into the 8 duo to the overly generous finals format.
Wollongong
As seen on the weekend, this team will struggle to score. Cortez Groves was an excitement machine in his 1st stint with the Hawks, however he's got an inconsistent jumper, and may struggle to score against the better defenders. I'm also not sure how he will go playing the 1 spot full time. He doesn't seem to be a great creator for others. Mat Campbell will start along side him, and he'll provide good D & streaky outside shooting, if not much else. Glen Saville has been very consistent over the past 5 years, averaging 15-18ppg, 9-10rpg & 4-5apg every year in that sting. Expect more of the same from him. Ballinger is a little undersized at the 4/5 spot inside, but is capable of big performances, as demonstrated by his 40 point outburst last season. Unfortunately, they don't come often enough. Tony Rampton will slot into the 5 spot, and could be serviceable. If he can provide 12 & 8 the Hawks will probably be happy. Andrew Rice will back up both positions, the Hawks hoping he may finally live up to his potential. He's capable of stepping outside and stoking 3's, but is sometimes a little weak inside. Ben Castle is a good defender, and should see minutes at the 3 spot. Troy Pilon is tough, but still under skilled. He'll provide quality backup to Ballinger. The Hawks don't have great depth, and still have question marks over the 1 & 5 spots. I don't see them making the finals.
New Zealand
The Breakers start the season with a brand new coach, and quite a few new faces. Ben Pepper had a good season last year, averaging 15ppg & 11rpg. If the Breakers are to win this season, he'll need to be a focal point in the offense. Paul Henare is inconsistent for a starter, and may struggle if asked to play big minutes. Aaron Olsen had a breakout year last year, averaging 15ppg. Unfortunately, he does little else but score. Their import tandem will be starting at the forward positions. Rich Melzer (great name eh?) & Brant Bailey will need to provide, well, everything for the Breakers. Both hail from Div 3 colleges, and will need to form one of the best import tandems in the league if NZ are going to be successful. Lindsay Tait & Adrian Mastrovich are about the only two bench players worthy of mention. Mastrovich has shown glimpses in his career, but is yet to put together a consistent full season. He may get his opportunity this year. Tait has been a part of the NZ national side recently and has shown promise. He may surpass Henare as a starter at some point this year. Bottom line : this group doesn't have enough talent to win a lot of games. Add that to an unproven coach, and it could be a long season in NZ.
West Sydney
This already-underwhelming group was recently made worse by the unceremonious departure of Steven Markovic. Simon Dwight has retired, Horvath has gone down with an injury, and what's left is not real impressive! When Rhys Carter & Adam Darragh are you only two PG's, you know you're in strife. While both young, I don't see either as being good enough to start in the NBL. James Harvey may be the only reason to tune in to Razorback games this year. He could very easily lead the league in scoring, since no one else will be demanding shots. Problem is, he doesn't give them much else. John Hennessy is listed as a 6'8" centre, which is quite small for a 5 man! Scott McGregor is mediocre as a starting 3 man. He posts decent stats (13ppg, 6rpg, 4apg last year), but plays an uninspired brand of bball. Clint Reed has shown a little promise (namely scoring 17 in a Blitz game) but probably isn't ready to step into a regular role. Cam Rigby never lived up to his promise, and is a poor-mans Scott McGregor (which is to say, he's homeless). The squad is rounded out by relatively unknown 'vic's (Causevic, Jankovic & Tomljanovic). Unless Horvath returns quickly, and puts big numbers, I don't see where their wins are going to come from.
Things certain to happen this season:
- Boy Goorj will say "this thing" a minumum of 126,947 times.
- Willie Farley will cheat on defense
- Anthony Stewart will try to start a fight, then run away
- Sydney will make Foxtel's roster more than any other team
- Casey will over-use his catch phrases (IE "user friendly roll")
Things that I'd like to see happen, but are unlikely:
- A coach to do the "Rick Castle skip" when a call goes against them
- Willie Farley to grow a 'fro
- Dusty Rychart to dunk on every fast break he gets
- Brad Newley to get up off the bench, walk past Stacker, and sub himself in. Then refuse to go off.
- The NBL to send an interstate ref to each game.
Awards up for grabs:
- Worst hair: Now that Simon Kerle has retired, and Dillon Boucher has had his cut, this one is wide open!
- Worst import: With plenty of new imports lining up, this one is also up for grabs.
OK that's all I've got for now! What else can we expect from this NBL season?
