Jack Toft
Years ago
NBL18 Foul Counts
OK Poindexters, I have crunched some foul numbers for the season thus fair. I haven't looked at every possible stat, but just looked at the fouls per game. My rational is that the fouls per game for a team should be not dis-similar at home and on the road. The reason for that is that the plays are the same and the team play style doesn't really vary too much.
On average, the home team receives 19.2 fpg and the away team 19.9 fpg, so there is a slight advantage of 0.7 fpg to the home team. I guess that is the insurance policy the refs pay to the home crowd to avoid getting their car keyed in the car park.
I also looked at the number of people fouled out per game, which is actually 0.42 to 0.38 in favour of the away team. I guess the home team can afford to keep stars on a bit longer knowing the development players are always keen to impress in front of mum and dad.
In summary, the home team receives the benefit of one less foul per game.
As far as teams are concerned, let's start off with Adelaide. At home the foul count is 18.7 to 23.9 and on the road it is 18.9 to 22.1. This suggests the Sixers foul less than other teams on average, but are smarter at getting fouls on their opponents. The average foul count of their opponent is +4 at Adelaide, but they also get +2.9 above average from their opponents on the road. Off the average they are (-0.5 & +4) (+4.5 at home) and on the road are (-1 & +2.9) (+1.9 difference on road). Their home advantage is +2.6
Brisbane average 17.5 to 20.8 at home and 17.5 to 16.7 on the road. Their home advantage is +7.4
Cairns are 18.6 to 18.9 at home, 19.4 to 19.3 away. Their home advantage is +0
Illawarra are 19.6 & 20.0 at home, 18.6 to 19.9 away. Their home advantage is +0.3.
New Zealand are 20.0 and 18.7 at home, 23.6 to 20.4 away. Their home advantage is -7.0.
Melbourne are 20.7 and 17.0 at home, 22.0 and 18.3 away. Their home advantage is -5.6.
Sydney are 19.8 and 18.0 at home, 20.2 and 18.6 away. Their home advantage is -2.7.
Perth. 18.6 to 22.0 at home and 19.9 to 18.3 on the road. Their home advantage is +3.5
Brisbane: + 7.4
Perth: + 3.5
Adelaide: +2.6
Illawarra: +0.3
Cairns: 0
Sydney: -2.7
Melbourne: -5.6
New Zealand: -7.0
Statistically, a home team should expect a foul range of 13 to 25 fouls and the away team 14 to 26 fouls. The only time the home foul count was under 13 was Adelaide vs Brisbane which was 11 to 13 fouls, indicating a low fouling game. The highest home foul game was New Zealand v Cairns 30 to 19. Apart from a key scratch, the refs probably got a fish under their seat too. There have been 6 games where the away team foul count was 27 over over. Most unbalanced game was R8 Brisbane v New Zealand 16 to 28 (-12) and then R3 Perth v Melbourne 17 to 27 (-10). Lowest fouls on road was R7 Cairns v Illawarra 19 to 8.
As far as foul outs, New Zealand foul out at least one player in 62% of away games, and 44% of home games.
