Isaac
Years ago

NBL finals odds

Going by William Hill.

United $2.10
36ers $3.50
Wildcats $5
Breakers $6.50

Any value in these?

I could see the Breakers shortening slightly this week.

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Jack Toft
Years ago

United will be the ones to tighten up.

Breakers, I would say $15, Perth $5, Sixers $2, United $1.30

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AshT
Years ago

I believe the true prospects are more like this (framed to 100%);

Melbourne 1.85
Adelaide 3
Perth 14
New Zealand 18

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Manu Fieldel
Years ago

Ash, what do you mean by 'framed to 100 per cent'?

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Anonymous
Years ago

"Ash, what do you mean by 'framed to 100 per cent'?"

If you were to have money on each team weighted correctly (according to the odds), you'd break even.

eg:
Using Ash's odds, if you had about $100 and stuck roughly...

$54 of that on Melbourne @1.85
$33 on Adelaide @3
$7 on Perth @14
$5.50 on New Zealand @18

...no matter who wins you'd get your $100 back.

Most bookies go around 90% in a market which is how they get their cut/profit

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AshT
Years ago

... or another way of looking at it; if your opinion was that all four teams are a dead set equal chance, then in your opinion each would be odds of 4.00. 100%/4.00 = each team has a 25% chance of winning it.

Framing your own opinions to 100% forces you to come up with an honest market, rather than thinking something at say 8.00 is good odds when in reality that opinion might not stand up to your own math test.

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Manu Fieldel
Years ago

Interesting stuff, thanks for explaining.

It's nice that someone here can ask for an explanation without getting berated.

I guess the topsy-turvy nature of the NBL season works in the bookies' favour. Money would have come for Perth and NZ earlier in the season as they were 'the only two who could win it', but now Adelaide and Melbourne have taken the reins. Gives them a chance to even things up and get as close to a guaranteed profit as possible

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Anonymous
Years ago

Yeah, it's awesome that the bookies got a chance to even up their books... eyeroll. F**k the bookies!

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NBL finals odds

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