36ers especially after the addition of Conger.

Yeah I like Adelaide's chances with Conger too, although they're not the most balanced team so they still have some work to do.

Bullets

Bullets v Cats semi final

Depends on how bad Spudee plays. He's their x-factor... err whatever the opposite of that is.

Cairns will win the spoon by 5 games

Y factor?

Brisbane has played Perth three times already, two of which were in Perth. Adelaide has played Perth once, same for NZ. I am ticked off, however, that NZ gets two shots at a weak Cats team next weekend.

Let's stack up Brisbane against their direct competitors, NZ and Adelaide. The lads are 2-0 against Adelaide and 1-1 against NZ.

Adelaide has already dropped a home fixture against Perth, so two of the remaining three Sixers v Cats games will be in Perth.

And Brisbane is in season-best form right now.

You see what I'm seeing?

All I see is a delusional bullets fan

Sixers were always going to make it.

Question is how badly Gaze will fuck Sydney, and whether Bullets can displace them.
Breakers no chance

And Oooh, Lemanis is such a tewwible coach, whah. ROFL
If Sydney had gotten Lemanis, they'd be headed for another 3-peat.

I don't want to agree with Dazza but think Adelaide is the best of the three.

Question marks and potential with all three teams.

I'm saying Adelaide, on the following basis:

- Wright has form on the board

- The combination of Conger, DJ, Sobey, Wiley and decent supporting cast gives them the highest ceiling.

My question is can Sobey and Moore effectively handle playmaking responsibilities in the pressure cooker half court situation, and can they handle full court defense.

But ultimately it wouldn't surprise me if this is a close season. There might be no obvious candidate and these 3 teams might remain in the mix til the final round or two. That's quite possible

Cairns will be tougher later in the season and we haven't seen what Devon Hall can do as an NBL player, I'm not saying that they make it but they will beat teams and leave a dent in playoff aspirations.

I wanna give Illawarra a little more time, it didn't feel like that long ago they defeated United.

As for the team that makes playoffs out of those 3, I am going with Bullets but I think that Breakers will make a change with Armani Moore, pre injury he wasn't worth his minutes and if they decide that they need more of a PG stud like Kevin Dillard then I can see them sneaking in... but that is all based on you can't trust the Breakers consistency, you can't trust the 36ers temperament and the Bullets albeit shithouse at closing games are more of a safe bet and Bair will be much better later in the season than he is right now and Patterson looks really interested too.

Illawarra are good for significant stretches, but they have patches in games that kill them. I think their unbalanced line-up has a bit to do with that, and no doubt Beveridge is still trying to figure out what works with this group. I can't see them making playoffs without adding another shooter though, it's been the elephant in the room since they put the roster together.

Moore finally started to show something before his injury, but agree that they need an import PG badly. Ili is fine as a bench sparkplug but I think it's been pretty clearly seen by now that he's not a starting PG in this league.

Adelaide with Conger should be top 4, but its their defense losing them games, and Conger is a net loss in that area outside of some highlight-reel blocks. We'll see. Drmic finally finding his pulse and Froling coming into his own could end up being as big as the Conger signing, too. I think they are destined for a 5 or 6 game win streak in the near future.

NZ too erratic game to game, and Brisbane (despite some impressive games this season) still too unbalanced and still persisting with Cadee for far too long.

I think Ili is fine with Webster and Richard beside him. He's the future of the PG spot for them, and one of the best defenders in that position in the NBL. Given that's the area they most need improvement in, I can't see him being sidelined.

I think they're expecting too much of Ili too soon and his starting experiment hasn't worked out, so it's time for them to replace Moore with an import PG if they're to make the playoffs...

I understand the Hawks are limited on funds, but surely there's better options that Jackson? Like everyone else, I think that it should have been an either/or situation with him and Jett, but even with Naar being raw still, I'd rather they develop him and find someone else who can score from outside... there's got to be some sort of player out there that can be a better fit for the right money?

I don't agree him starting hasn't worked out, I don't think he's the issue for them at all. In fact, he's a hugely important part of them getting better because their offence is fine, it's their D that needs to improve for them to step up with the top 3.

I would swap out Moore for a import PG, a guy who play makes and defends, the closest thing you can find and afford to DMac or Darnell Mee, someone who also is a floor general, a leader, a guy who can pull the guys in one direction and not afraid to call guys out is what they need more than another SG/SF like Moore when Sobey, Drmic, Conger, Teys provide more coverage in that spot than the 36ers have at PG.

Beating illawarra doesnt change my mind on this either, especially given how they started, it showed exactly why we need that style of PG, especially against the Melbourne, Perth type teams.

We're talking about Armani Moore, rather than Ramone Moore, but you could certainly make a case for what you're saying! I'd give this 36ers line-up a little time though, it has the potential to be v good in Wright's system.

Ah my bad, Armani Moore needs to lift too IMO, gotta be producing more than 5ppg as an import even if you are cheaper and defensive minded, but whilst they are in the top 4 they can possibly be a little patient, but not sure he is on the team of a title contender to be honest.

Yea, I think Conger gives us some nice length and athleticism and will suit Joeys style well, athletes like Sobey, Conger, Wiley gives them a really good run and gun line up similar to last year with Creek and Childress. I do still feel we are lacking that PG even a Shorter type again compared to last year. So will be interesting to see how it turns out, as i do agree they have some good potential in Joeys system.

I think its Adelaide and NZ fighting for 4th/5th (im tipping NZ for 4th) and Bullets are 6th-7th with Illawarra in my mind, unless the bullets upgrade their roster with a good 3rd import and possibly swap Holt out too, as again 6ppg isnt getting it done for your import on a title contender, even if he is cheap.

Im not expecting all imports to be MVP level or anything especially the cheaper ones, but if you are scoring less than 8ppg at a decent clip regardless of your role or price tag, especially if your team isnt winning, id be looking over my shoulder, because there are plenty of imports out there who could bring atleast that level of performance.

That's the key isn't it, role playing imports are great on successful teams, but don't generally last long when the Ls mount. Often that can be because winning teams have a more cohesive system that makes their role more predictable productive.

Yea spot on, nothing wrong with role players, but they have to produce at a certain level for their teams to have great success

look at last years GF teams imports

Melbourne had
Boone 13ppg (role more defence and rebounding)
Prather 16ppg
Ware 16ppg

Adelaide Had
Childress 12ppg (played like a star by the playoffs)
Shorter 13ppg (more their to play make and defend and rebound)
Moore 11ppg (off the bench scorer)

Both teams had strong Aussie cores too

Shorter and Moore wouldnt have been top dollar imports either and were seen as more role players too, you could even say Boone is an elite role player, even though also an ALL NBL level big guy

So if your imports are not producing at that kind of level its going to be tough to make the grand final IMO

As teams like Melbourne have that level of imports again on top of a top notch aussie group, and thats who you gotta beat to win it all.

"Cairns will be tougher later in the season"

No, no they won't. They will fade faster that Perf Curtains. Far too many of their players are over the hill.

"Shea is fine at the point"

In what universe?

There's a good reason why, even in the era of 2 imports surrounded by 8 crabs, teams always filled the PG role first. (Unless or until they had a deadset local gun.)

And its the reason a guy with skills, can excel as a PG even when he lacks the size and strength of those around him.

Far too many people drinking the koolaid after he won the most improved award last season. He may well be "the future" of that role for the Breakers (time will tell) but he aint there yet. They would have been better of pairing him with somebody experienced he could learn from.

But simple facts is that the new owners are clearly running the team on a shoestring.

For me its pretty simple, NZ are already a good offensive team as it stands, they can improve in the half-court but that's already happening. However they are close to the worst defensive team in the league and that's where they have to improve. Given Ili is arguably their best defender, he is in fact an important piece.

It's interesting how the fan analysis on teams that are struggling pretty much always centres on their offence, but the biggest cause of the majority of lower teams struggling is their D.

Shea is 26, too. Obviously not over the hill, but his best is likely just a modest step forward from what he is today. Off the bench I thought he gave the Breakers good energy and had some nice games being aggressive and attacking the basket, but as a starter his deficiencies are being exposed and his lack of a 3pt shot is taking away his ability to get to penetrate.

Would definitely have agreed with that analysis earlier in the season but he's starting to find his feet in their offence, he made some quality plays v Brisbane and Melbourne. He's going at 10ppg at over 50% the past four games.