Quagmire
Years ago

NBA Championship theories.

NBA Championship theories&

Some theories I have noticed about the make-up of an NBA champion Team, some contradict others, here they are, in no particular order.

THE SUPERSTAR THEORY
You must have a top 10 NBA player on your team to win a championship.
That means NBA first or second teamer, former or current MVP etc.
Now obviously the Piston faithful will claim an exception to this but that is why it's a theory- not a rule. (You could argue that when he is focussed- Rasheed is top 10 material- though you could also argue that for a lot of players.)
I know that history tells us that the trades involving superstars for 2 or 3 stars result in big wins for the team that gets the superstar.
So if your best player is not all-NBA 1st or 2nd teamer- your making up numbers.

THE POWER OF THREE THEORY
Three out of five ain't bad- the list of champion teams that have a set of three star players as their nucleus is long and has received much hype, but I ask you, is that list kind of easy to fabricate? Of the big three from the celts this year, who would have been harder for them to replace- Ray Allen or Kedrick Perkins? Are the spurs winning without Bowen? Maybe it should be the power of four then?
I think the overall concept is that having two stars is not enough (unless its MJ & Pip), you need that third star that carries the other two on off nights.
This theory holds up well because the play-offs are a marathon best of 7; so a team of three runners stands a better chance than a single superstar. Doesn't it?

THE INSIDE OUTSIDE THEORY
No team without a legit post presence will win it all, and conversely if you can't hit from outside when your post is doubled / tripled, your making up numbers.

THE DEFENCE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS THEORY
Tried and tested, you must be a top flight defensive unit to win in the modern NBA.
There are two factors in basketball- offence and defence. Rarely do we ever evaluate them equally. Scorers get the glory, defenders largely get looked over. Smart GM's know the value of tough defenders.

GREAT COACH THEORY
My own theory which suggests that a team can only be as good as its coach. If you are going into the play-offs you better have a coaching staff that can identify opponents weaknesses and exploit them, while countering the other teams efforts to do the same.

Well there you have it. Longest thread ever.
If you made it down to here, well done.

Feel free to critique- its kinda the point, and see if you side with any of the above theories- maybe all of them?

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TR  
Years ago

Great Coach Theory......... slightly busted


Doc Rivers..... but he does have some great assistants in Tom Thibodeau and Clifford Ray.


I believe he did out-coach Phil Jackson in last seasons Finals.

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KingJames  
Years ago

For once Quagmire I think you have made a correct and well structured post! They are all good points that I think serious NBA GM's would consider.

Sometimes however, GM's are more focussed on Dollars as it is a business. So if the Cleveland GM had the choice to swap his team for Boston's I doubt he would do it due to the money making guy that wears number 23.

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Quagmire  
Years ago

ouch KingJames, talk about your back-handed complement! Thanks anyway.

I agree with money hungry GM / owners.

If they don't have the superstar that can take them all the way, they either pretend they have one, or get a young player they claim could become one.

The only people that suffer are the fans that follow the weak, numbers making teams dreaming of grandeur.

Just look at the sorry state of the Hawks.

They have gone from exciting potential first round upset of eventual champs, to losing a glue guy overseas, retaining a coach the players hate, insulting their match breaking player with a poor contract offer.

Now they look like they are too old at the PG spot, missing bench strength and quality coaching. Their star won't be giving a crap and all this is being done in front of their young player Horford- who will get the hell out of dodge after seeing all this crap go down.

Hawks fans should be spewing.

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dcanwade  
Years ago

Don't forget:

Get Stern on your side and the help of the refs. ala D-Wade with his "phantom calls" or be a storied franchise and get the great no cost trades - LA and Boston

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Black Dracula  
Years ago

The power of threee theory is interesting.

Jordan/Pippen/? (Rodman for 96, 97, 98)
Allen/Garnett/Pierce
Magic/Kareem/Worthy?
Bird/McHale/Parish

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Black Dracula  
Years ago

"THE INSIDE OUTSIDE THEORY
No team without a legit post presence will win it all, and conversely if you can't hit from outside when your post is doubled / tripled, your making up numbers."

This one is interesting too..

1994 & 1995 Houston Rockets anyone?

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Melvin Corpuscle  
Years ago

Those Rockets teams had Mario Elie, Kenny Smith and Sam I Am hitting a LOT outside ... oh, and some kid called Robert Horry ... oh, and Drexler .. I'd say thats some Guard firepower. Am assuming that's the shot you were taking, not insinuating that Hakeem wasnt a legit inside presence ?

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BFresh  
Years ago

None of this is terribly groundbreaking stuff.

Superstar theory: If you're a top team surely you will have a few guys that will fit this mould, as if you are doing well, the best performing players on that team will be seen in this light.

Power of Three, Inside outside, Good Coach, defence wins championships theories: So basically what you are saying is that if you have a consistent team where everybody pulls their weight, they have the ability to be successful. If you throw in that you are coached well and play good defence then you will win games. These are the type of qualities players are told to strive for from juniors. So whilst I agree these are the qualities of a winning side, I think these traits are ones that are important for successful team sports in general.

Eg. a very similar case could be made for cricket, need both bowlers and batsmen, a few superstars in each category to get wickets/score runs when others have an off day, and be well drilled tactically by their coach.

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The Journo  
Years ago

Black dracula,

Houston 94 model had Maxwell, Smith, Cassell, Elie
Then in 95 they added Drexler and Smith hit 8 three's in game 1 against Orlando.

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Quagmire  
Years ago

B-Fresh, i think your missing the point with the superstar theory... I'm not just talking an all-star or a max contract player.

For example, neither Anthony nor AI would count as superstar material. Arenas, Amare, Brand, Davis, nope nope nope and nope.

We are really talking KG, Duncan, LBJ, Kobe, Wade, CP3, T-Mac, Howard, Pierce and maybe D-Will.

I'm not saying that having a superstar means you'll eventually win a title, i'm suggesting if you don't have one your really making up numbers.

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Rex Hunt  
Years ago

I have a similar big 3 thoery for winning an NBL championship:

1. Billionaire owner
2. Rorting the salary cap
3. Rorting the points system

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mr clutch  
Years ago

On just about every single championship team in recent history there has been a player in the James Posey/Bruce Bowen mould... someone at the wing who is an elite level defender and has a very good catch a shoot 3 point game.

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B Fresh  
Years ago

Hmmm yeah see your point quagmire, but i feel that if an AI or Melo played in such a team onlookers would be quick to upgrade them to a superstar level. Sceptical, but just a thought.

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Quagmire  
Years ago

What comes first- chicken or the egg?

Do we label them superstars coz they are winning, or are they winning coz they are superstars?

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