skip
Years ago

NBL Top 6 - The Run to the playoffs

Thought I would take a closer look at the final 2 rounds for the Top 6 contenders.

CURRENT LADDER
TEAM - GP - W - L - %
1 South Dragons 26 19 7 110.5
2 Melbourne Tigers 27 19 8 107.5
3 New Zealand Breakers 26 16 10 105.9
4 Townsville Crocodiles 28 16 12 99.7
5 Perth Wildcats 28 15 13 101.0
6 Adelaide 36ers 27 14 13 101.6
7 Sydney Spirit 27 11 16 95.2
8 Cairns Taipans 26 10 16 94.0

SOUTH
Still to come - 36ers, @ Crocs, Tigers, @ Taipans
Can only drop as low as 3rd but would need to lose all their games and NZ to win all theirs. I reckon they will need to beat the Tiges if they want to hold Top spot.

MELBOURNE
Still to come - @ Dragons, Crocodiles, @ Wildcats
Cannot drop lower than 2nd as they have the series over NZ. Will likely take top if they defeat the Dragons.

NEW ZEALAND
Still to come - @ Hawks, @ 36ers, Taipans, @ Spirit
Can go as high as 2nd or as low as 6th. Only won 1 game in their last 7. Will struggle to hold a top 4 spot without a big turn around in form.

TOWNSVILLE
Still to come - Dragons, @ Tigers
Can go as high as 3rd or as low as 6th. 2 tough games to finish the season. Will likely need to win at least one if not both to stay above the Wildcats.

PERTH
Still to come - Spirit, Tigers
Can go as high as 3rd or as low as 6th. Has the series over Adelaide and Townville but will need at least one win to jump over Crocs.

ADELAIDE
Still to come - @ Dragons, Breakers, @ Hawks
Can go as high as 3rd as low as 7th. Has the series over Townville. Needs at least two wins to rise above 6th.

SYDNEY
Still to come - Taipans, @ Wildcats, Breakers
Cant make the playoffs now but, can still heavily infuence them.

CAIRNS
Still to come - @ Spirit, Blaze, @ Breakers, Dragons
Can still take 6th if they win all four and Adelaide lose all their games.

I personally think the Top 6 willend up like this

Dragons - will lose to Tigers (Still win the series on points), win the others.
Tigers - Will win all remaining games
Breakers - Will win 2/4
Perth - Will beat the Spirit, Lose to Tigers
Adelaide - Will win final 2 games
Townsville - 0/2

If it did work out this way, we would then be off to Perth for a sudden death final.
Its gonna be a very interesting fortnight.


Topic #18922 | Report this topic


Anonymous  
Years ago

Adelaide can't go below 6th

Reply #224129 | Report this post


skip  
Years ago

Yes they can. Cairns have the series against us. The have four games left and are 4 wins below us. Simple maths. Very unlikely, but possible.

Reply #224130 | Report this post


Jc  
Years ago

boti said we have a finals spot

Reply #224131 | Report this post


 
Years ago

Boti is wrong, refer Skip above.

Reply #224133 | Report this post


skip  
Years ago

The ladder is available on www.nbl.com.au for you to work it out for yourself if you like.

It would be more than 100/1 odds for us to drop below 6th, but it is still possible.

Reply #224135 | Report this post


anon  
Years ago

I second that. Boti said we were in the finals after Saturdays game. Not to say that Botis word is law but I kinda think he'd know.

Reply #224136 | Report this post


Big Marty  
Years ago

Cairns did have a chance, then they lost later the same evening that the Sixers won.

The finals are set.

Reply #224141 | Report this post


skip  
Years ago

FFS! Look at the ladder & schedule and do the maths people! Its not hard.

Reply #224145 | Report this post


Kobe-for-MVP  
Years ago

put it thsi way, skips right

Reply #224148 | Report this post


Big Ads  
Years ago

I think the heat is getting to Skip.

Don't get too steamed up buddy, there is still another week of hot weather. Conserve your energy.

I thought you would know as well as anyone on this forum that when someone says it's hot then the very next post will argue it's cold.

Reply #224150 | Report this post


Black Dracula  
Years ago

Skip is right. Adelaide have 3 games left, Cairns have 4. If Adelaide lose their last 3 and Cairns win their last 4, we'll be equal on 14 wins and they have the series over us. Ergo, they go to the playoffs and we don't. Everyone is jumping the gun with "Adelaide secures a playoff berth" comments.

Reply #224151 | Report this post


skip  
Years ago

Big Ads - Are you serious? You think its hot?!

Reply #224152 | Report this post


EC  
Years ago

The NBL site has amended its comments now saying "The Adelaide 36ers have all but booked a playoff berth after triumphing over the Perth Wildcats 107-92". Its not in the bag yet. Skip is right, unlikely but he is right. It would be a disaster if the loss to Cairns 2 weeks ago ends up biting us on the bum.

Reply #224161 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Actually I would be more upset about the fact that Cairns only won the game in Adelaide because of an error by the score table.

If Adelaide missed the finals that's the game and situation that I would be most pissed about.

Reply #224163 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

I think Melbourne could feasibly drop to third (however unlikely) if they lose all three games to finish 19-11, and the Breakers go 4-0 to finish 20-10. Can't see it happening, but it's mathematically possible, right?

Reply #224192 | Report this post


skip  
Years ago

Yes it is.

Reply #224194 | Report this post


EC  
Years ago

Anon #224163, can you give some more details about this. I must have been in a dream cloud when that happened. My gripe in close games has been the performance of the refs but not familiar with the score bench making such a critical error. If it was a score bench error, surely its in writing.

Reply #224218 | Report this post


skip  
Years ago

EC - You dont remember the whole thing with the clock startin half a second late?

Reply #224223 | Report this post


Juror 12  
Years ago

So the most likely outcomes for the Sixers are probably a knockout final in Perth or in New Zealand. I think I'd prefer to play the Breakers?

Reply #224227 | Report this post


KingJames  
Years ago

You would rather play the Breakers in NZ!! You are a crazy man!! Both would be tough road trips but Perth would be easier in my opinion now that they don't have Kendal.

Reply #224244 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

Perth in Perth would be the softest target. Hinson and then no real back-ups at PG is a real weak point.

Breakers have been dropping games and playing a bit averagely, but besides that first of the two Tigers games, they've been fairly close.

Reply #224252 | Report this post


skip  
Years ago

We did however manage to beat the Breakers over there.

I would probably prefer Perth. More chance of me heading over for it then.

Reply #224254 | Report this post


EC  
Years ago

skip, thanks for jogging my memory. I do remember it clearly which was just the right amount of extra time that Mee needed to put in that last 3 pointer. He did nothing else all game but was awarded an extra second at the very end to dig the dagger into every Adelaidean in the Dome. When the score bench was mentioned, I was thinking of score tally, not the clock.

Reply #224263 | Report this post


KingJames  
Years ago

Skip, yes we beat them over In NZ but that was without CJ and Jones. Sixers were without Maher and Davidson though.

Sixers lost that game them selves against Cairns! They only have them selves to blame. Also that Mee shot he took with a few seconds left on the clock from memory. So whether the clock was a half a second or a second off is irrelevant.

Reply #224280 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

From the replays I saw, it looked like Mee's shot would've been good even if the clock was started properly. Not really an issue.

Reply #224284 | Report this post


Kent Brockman  
Years ago

What about the fact that DT was standing out of court when he threw the ball back in.


Reply #224289 | Report this post


EC  
Years ago

The ball went through the hoop just after the clock expired which means 1 second earlier, the ball was still in his hands. I keep playing that scene in slow motion in my mind and remember seeing the ball go through the hoop and then immediately looked at the clock. There was no time left on it and wondered when the refs were going to rule it too late. Kent, DT standing out of court when he threw the ball back in goes against the refs and what I was saying about their performance in tight games. KingJames how did the 36ers lose that game themselves? Maybe they should have been in a stronger position in the dying seconds of the game but they had actually won the game if you take away the fact that the refs did not make a call on DT and the bench did not stuff up on the clock. The 36ers lost it on errors beyond their control.

Reply #224360 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

Go and watch the replay again. Can't speak for the DT mistake, but there was enough time for the shot to leave Mee's hands IMO.

It must've been payback for that cheated 0.7 seconds in Cairns where the 36ers fled the stadium.

Reply #224366 | Report this post


EC  
Years ago

If the refs were sharp enough to remember that, then their concentration on the task at hand had to suffer. I don't remember the 0.7 seconds being an error. I remember the matter being resolved with the NBL satisfied with the timing. Cairns being so disgusted with the result lodged a complaint with the NBL and it was investigated. This is something that I hold against Ninnis for not taking the matter to the NBL in this more recent game. He is obviously pissed off at a lot of calls but where the game is at stake, then he should show some assertiveness and lodge a complaint for investigation.

Reply #224373 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

Karmic payback, not a conscious decision by the refs!

And maybe Ninnis realised that the clock run properly wouldn't have made a difference to the validity of the shot itself?

Reply #224374 | Report this post


XztatiK  
Years ago

DT was out.

"Perth in Perth would be the softest target. Hinson and then no real back-ups at PG is a real weak point."

...until Chris Goulding came along. I really rate that kid.

Reply #224378 | Report this post


EC  
Years ago

Isaac, 1 second is very little time and opinions can be divided. From what I saw the shot went through the hoop after the clock expired. At that stage I didn't realise that there had been a delay in starting the clock and accepted that the shot had left his hand before it expired. It wasn't until later when the delay in clock was mentioned that I realised there was no way that Mee would have been able to nake that shot on time if he didn't have the extra time. Anyway its all water under the bridge now and no correction will be made, however an extra win at this late stage of the season is extremely valuable and could be the difference between making playoffs and missing out. It could also be the difference between getting a home final or just 1 away. I agree that this wouldn't have made a lot of difference if the 36ers had done a lot more themselves to win some extra games, but you can't take away something that they have not been responsible for and not think anything of it. As poorly as they have performed this season, if that extra win lead to a championship because of circumstances, then everyone would be forgetting about their regular season performances and saying what a great season they've had.

Reply #224386 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Isaac I disagree, the shot would not have beaten the clock if the scorer hadn't stopped the clock in error.

Reply #224394 | Report this post


EC  
Years ago

Its ironic because Cairns is the only team now that stands in our way of making the playoffs. The best it could possibly do is win all 3 of their remaining games and we lose both of our remaining games and this would only give us an equal win/loss record. However, this game with the clock error resulted in a win to Cairns by 1 miserable point which is all that was needed to give them the split over Adelaide and claim 6th spot. If its any consolation, after watching the 36ers play against the Dragons tonight, there's every likelihood that they can lose both of their remaining games, but then its not likely Cairns will win all 3 of theirs because they still go up against NZ & Dragons.

Reply #224588 | Report this post




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