Isaac
Years ago
The Likelihood of Overtime in Basketball
Came across this data and analysis of the likelihood of overtime in the NBA, but figured it would be just as applicable in the NBL.
But overtime is almost 3 times more frequent than this: 6.26% of all NBA games are tied at the end of regulation play. And games decided by just a few points are surprisingly rare: It is more likely to have a tie than for the game to be decided by two points, and a tie is more than twice as likely as a one-point difference. These statistics are quite dramatic when you see them visually.These videos explain it well:
This is how the points margin changes (positive numbers favour home team) as the clock counts down to half-time:
Notice how it's a fairly even curve.
And then this is the same look, but at the clock counting down to the end of regulation - it gets telling as the clock enters the final 10 seconds:
The article itself is worth reading, but here's one of the comments that would explain what we see in the graphs:
1. Teams down by 2 late are most likely to take a 2 point shot, while teams down by 3 will most often take a 3 point shot. The team's choices make ties a likely outcome.
2. A tie is a stable equilibrium, while other scores aren't. If a team leads with the ball, they will be fouled, preventing the game from ending on that score. If a team has the ball with a tie, they'll usually be allowed to wait and take the last shot, either winning the game or leaving it as a tie.
