Anonymous
Years ago
As we enter the last round of juniors, I wonder how many "surprise" wins will be made by the "weaker" teams against their stronger fellow club teams?
Every year there seems to be one or two teams who pull off a surprise win in the last round or two against their fellow club team to get into the finals, then meet their fellow club team in the finals and they get knocked off.
from the stats room
Years ago
Heading into the last round, can't see too many 6th placed teams moving into the top 5. Outside of those grades reorganised after the first round that is.
The only play in game would be in U12 Div 1 girls.
Assessing current placing here follows the specific dtat for placings over the year.
Note: again this is not exacting as some teams have more double div 2 teams and others score better having more lower division teams, or play in more grades.
Boys
Sturt 17 of 21 in finals 81%;ave position 2.57th
Forestville 21 of 28 in finals 75%;ave position 3.93th
Norwood 16 of 28 in finals 57%;ave position 5.68th
South 10 of 22 in finals 45%;ave position 5.73th
Southern 12 of 24 in finals 40%;ave position 6.10th
Eastern 5 of 9 in finals 56%; ave position 6.33th
North 13 of 25 in finals 52%;ave position 7.16th
West 6 of 19 in finals 31%; ave position 7.47th
Centrals 0 of 10 in finals 0%; ave position 8.30th
Woodville 3 of 13 in finals 23%; ave position 8.31th
Girls
Forestville 16 of 22 in finals 73%;ave position 3.78th
Sturt 14 of 18 in finals 78%;ave position 4.28th
Norwood 8 of 21 in finals 38%; ave position 5.09th
Eastern 4 of 7 in finals 57%; ave position 5.14th
North 11 of 18 in finals 61%;ave position 5.17th
Woodville 4 of 12 in finals 25%; ave position 6.17th
West 5 of 14 in finals 36%; ave position 6.21th
Southern 5 of 12 in finals 42%; ave position 6.58th
South 4 of 12 in finals 25%; ave position 7.67th
Centrals 0 of 4 in finals 0%; ave position 7.75th
Total
Sturt 31 of 19 in finals 79%;ave position 3.36th
Forestville 37 of 50 in finals 74%;ave position 3.86th
Norwood 24 of 49 in finals 49%;ave position 5.43th
North 24 of 43 in finals 56%;ave position 5.62th
Eastern 9 of 16 in finals 56%; ave position 5.81th
Southern 17 of 36 in finals 47%;ave position 6.28th
South 14 of 34 in finals 41%;ave position 6.41th
West 11 of 33 in finals 33%;ave position 6.94th
Woodville 7 of 25 in finals 28%; ave position 7.28th
Centrals 0 of 14 in finals 0%; ave position 8.14th
Results
West seemed to have slipped a lot, especially in the boys side.
Woodville were unable to continue their development in the girls, but are still in front of a couple of years ago. Boys are disappointing.
Forestville are closing the gap on Sturt, mainly in the boys.
Sturt are in a similar position, with their boys dominance keeping them in front.
Norwood seem to be middle of the table in most grades.
North have dropped again, and risk falling out of the big 4.
Eastern have improved, due to a couple of strong teams. Will be important to maintain it.
Southern have some good boys groups, but girls are poor, lets see what the Nagy family can do with it next year considering they will be coaching all the teams.
South's boys improved, but girls lagging still.
Centrals are struggling still, no finals!
Thought?
Do this analysis for Div 1 and Div 2 only and I think you will see some surprises!
old and gray
Years ago
"Do this analysis for Div 1 and Div 2 only and I think you will see some surprises!"
Agreed, would like to see the figures just on div 1 and 2
"West seemed to have slipped a lot, especially in the boys side"
It wasn't very long ago that West were State Champions boys was it? Maybe 4 years ago? And they were always around the mark before that for as long as I can remember.
What has gone wrong since then?
Ganymede 74
Years ago
I've done the boys in Div 1 and 2 only Under 10 to 20.
Finals
T/Valley 3/3 100%
Sturt 13/15 87%
Eastern 4/6 67%
Fville 10/16 63%
Norwood 8/14 57%
Southern 6/12 50%
Western 2/4 50%
West 4/11 36%
South 4/11 36%
North 4/13 31%
Wville 2/10 20%
Centrals 0/6 0%
Avg Position
T/Valley 2.3
Sturt 2.5
Western 4.5
Fville 4.6
Norwood 5.6
Eastern 5.8
Southern 6.0
South 6.2
North 6.8
West 7.2
Wville 7.8
Centrals 8.3
Yes, very interesting especially in light of the recent changes to the junior competition. The clubs at the top of these lists were particularly affected. Call me cynical, but if you can't beat them on the court then beat them in the board room!
from the stats room
Years ago
Here you go guys, have only used U12 - U18 as U10's has limited teams, and U20's similar, but with more players who have moved, or are only playing seniors.
Assigning teams 1 through 10 for div 1 and 2 only. If a team didn't have a team in a grade they got the next lowest number depending on position in div 3. If 2 teams didn't have a team they both got 9.5.
Boys
Sturt 1.125th
Forestville 3.25th
Norwood 3.75th
Southern 5.125th
South 6.00th
West 6.25th
Eastern 6.25th
North 6.625th
Woodville 7.825th
Centrals 9.25th
Girls
Forestville 1.875th
Sturt 2.35th
Norwood 4.125th
North 4.5th
Eastern 5.3125th
Woodville 5.625th
Southern 6.75th
South 7.375th
West 7.9375th
Centrals 9.0625th
Overall
Sturt 1.75th
Forestville 2.5625th
Norwood 3.9375th
North 5.5625th
Eastern 5.78125th
Southern 5.9375th
South 6.6875th
Woodville 6.75th
West 7.09375th
Centrals 9.15625th
So about the only real difference overall is that West and Woodville change places. West boys move up but their girls drop dramatically. Norths girls move up above Eastern. Other than that, no real difference.
Ganymede 74
Years ago
Here's the girls in Div 1 and 2 only Under 10 to 20.
Finals
Western 3/3 100%
Sturt 11/13 85%
Fville 14/17 82%
North 8/14 57%
Norwood 7/14 50%
Eastern 3/6 50%
Woodville 5/11 45%
West 4/11 36%
Southern 3/9 33%
South 2/8 25%
Centrals 0/4 0%
Avg Position
Fville 3.2
Western 3.3
Sturt 3.8
Norwood 4.9
North 5.2
West 5.5
Eastern 5.7
Wville 6.1
Southern 6.8
Centrals 7.8
South 8.1
Yes, I have too much time on my hands!
fan
Years ago
Maybe a third club in the western suburbs has had an effect on existing clubs?
I think the surprise win was last weekend in a division where three teams were fighting out for 5th spot. The "better" club team beat the "weaker team" by 31 points earlier on in the season and then the better team lost in a turn around of over 50 points by the weaker team.
Those three teams should finish on the same points, but the win effectively seals 5th for the weak team as all teams were equal on head to head, but the weak team's % is the highest. Considering the "strong team" beats the rest of the teams in the div by an average of 9 points more than the weak team, the loss by the strong team could be described as a surprise because a 50 point turnaround is a big improvement! I suppose it could happen..... could they have got the A and B teams mixed up?
I guess the test will come when they play 4th. Last meeting the "strong team" beat 4th by 13, yet the "weak team" lost by 20. Mmmm that's a gap of 33, which is similar to the gap of 31. I suppose if they have had a 50 point turnaround, they should beat 4th by 30 in the finals
Anon
Years ago
Ouch #246808, you obviously didn't see that game.
That stronger team has struggled with injury & illness for the last month and has been 30 pts down on previous results, losing 3 from the last 4.
That weaker team has won 9 of its last 10 games and shown significant improvement on previous results. Where's the surprise.
Both the other teams in contention have forfeited a game, which makes it hard to make the finals.
Anonymous, are the "weaker" team higher on head-to-head percentage? Coz that's the next tie-breaker I believe isn't it? ie overall % is not used unless the head-to-head percentage can't split them either.
And after having a dig around SP and believing I've worked out which grade is being talked about, it's pretty hard to have sympathy when the other two teams have both forfeited a game. If either team didn't, they'd be a point ahead and other results wouldn't matter.
The forfeits raise an issue as one was on catch up game and the other was the last weekend of school holidays. Catch up games are played on Sundays which disadvantage some clubs in the competition whose players play other sports or have religious commitments on Sundays.
BSA would argue that the teams should be training anyhow. Not all kids come out to training and so a forfeit on a Sunday catch up game is not the same as a forfeit on a regular season game.
Scheduling in school holidays is always hard as lots of families go away.
A forfeit is a forfeit, they are exactly the same. The team that will likely make finals didn't forfeit any, the other two did - simple as that.
Pegs
Years ago
It is unfortunate that forfeits occur.
BSA need to reschedule some games to Sunday and play on the first and last weekend of holidays to ensure that all 22 rounds are played. That is a fact of basketball.
They could reduce the number of teams in each grade to reduce the number of rounds required, but you will still have hot weather, sickness, state representation etc that will require catch up games. When do you play these? On the aforementioned Sundays or holidays? Or perhaps on a week night?
Way I see it, it is unfortunate but can't be avoided.
annon
Years ago
I would also just like to point out that the team in question only lost to the top team by one point in round 22. In my book, that makes them very competitive for the upcoming finals. My suggestion to anyone who believes that the team in question should not be there, is that they just wait and see...
hard to understand
Years ago
How can a club like southern with such a drawing base have a girls program that has gone so bad in just two years?
Jack Toft
Years ago
Annon,
no need to be so defensive, the cream always rises to the top. If they are good they will go far.
Just when they needed a win to seal the deal they seemed to snare one against their "better" club team. My mail is the "better" team only had 5 players on the day and one was fouled off, leaving 4.
Hard to understand: Not!
Recruited rather than developed which doesn't help the local talent and is only a short term fix.
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