Jack Toft
Years ago

The run home. Can we sneak into the 4?

With 10 more games to go (7 of these on the road) can the Sixers sneak into the top 4?

We have completed the series against Townsville and they have this 1:2 despite a thrashing. Cairns have dominated us at Cairns and have the series, but we have 1 game left at home. We still have 2 away games to play against the Gold Coast and I believe these will be the clutch games.
After a dismal away performance against Melbourne (insert Malcolm Blight "Pitiful"), we get a chance to redeem ourselves with 2 more home games against Luke Nevill and the 60 odd foot of grunge.
New Zealand (away) is our last game and probably the only loss you could plan on, but then again we can all hope the Breakers have a feed of bad mussels the night before and end up subbing every 2 minutes for a comfort break.
We have the series over Perth an one last away game. Seems we have tamed the injury ridden cats and I expect that this might be another clutch game.
The two away games against Sydney should be pencilled in as wins. A 2 point win against Wollongong gives us the series.

I believe that a win% of 60% is needed for the top 4. This means 17 wins, but 15 or 16 might mean you fall over the line with series wins etc.

Looks like 9 wins from 10 will guarantee us a spot, and 7 wins (with those wins including over Wollongong, at least one from Sydney, 2 away wins against GCB, 2 home wins against MEL) might see us into the top 4 with some series wins and results falling our way.

Is the glass half empty, or half full?

Topic #24848 | Report this topic


XztatiK  
Years ago

Nice summary Jack.

The away games vs GC and SYD are the must-wins along with all our home games. We can't take the Kings too casually.

I think we'll be relying on other teams losing for a spot, which should make the TV games of Townsville, GC and Wollongong a bit more interesting at the very least.

Reply #306285 | Report this post


Peter  
Years ago

Hmmm - winning 9 of 10 leaves us needing Townsville or Perth to lose at least 4 of 9 remaining games, or Cairns to lose at least 5 of 10. We can assume NZ won't drop 9 of 12 and will make the 4. If we won 9 of 10, I'd be confident of finishing ahead of all the other teams.

Cairns have performed really consistently, at home and away, and I think they will do what's needed to get into the 4, barring injuries.

Perth and Townsville seem the most likely to falter and let Adelaide in. Depends on how quickly Perth adjust to life without Redhage.

Nonetheless, I think the key games are the 2 Melbourne games. We have not been effective in defending Melbourne's height in 10 years and they have repeatedly schooled us in our own gym. The showing earlier this year was not reassuring. Clarke will need to have a new game plan or the boys had better improve their defensive execution a long way from that game. If they play well enough to get those 2 games and can reproduce that form for *all* of the remaining 10 games, then 9 out is on the cards.

The post in another thread suggests Shannon may be back on court sooner rather than later. We'll need him healthy and playing all 10 of those games.

Reply #306287 | Report this post


Peter  
Years ago

oops - "9 out of" should be "9 out of 10"

Reply #306288 | Report this post


Jack Toft  
Years ago

I reckon the only dead set certainty in the 4 are New Zealand.

Reply #306296 | Report this post


Fizzle  
Years ago

If Saville comes back, expect a run from the Hawks. It'll be a dog fight from 2nd to 5th to see who gets in with the Breakers practically cemented at first. The 6ers havent shown anywhere near enough for me to realistically see them go 7-3, let alone 9-1. Adelaide wont make the playoffs, but it is sport and stranger things have happened i guess. Id love to see Perth be the team to fade out now.

Reply #306301 | Report this post


Mystro  
Years ago

Peter re:cairns have performed really consistently at and home and away

Cairns have been woeful on the road this season and it has only been their home record that has saved them from the bottom half of the ladder. In saying that, I still believe they will make the playoffs.

I agree Fizzle on the Hawks call, with Sav back they are a whole different team to the one that has dropped the last few games.

Reply #306310 | Report this post


Beantown  
Years ago

Mystro, with all the injuries to Perth and the Hawks, Cairns could well finish second at this rate!

Reply #306312 | Report this post


Big Marty  
Years ago

I don't think the Sixers will make the Top 4 this year. I have a feeling it will be like 2008 where it comes down to the last 1-2 games of the season where 4th HAS to lose a game for us to get in... and they don't.

It will be good for the fans and for team morale to finish the "best of the worst" so to speak and at least show that a bunch of young players can make a fair go at the Top 4 next season.

Granted the season may be longer if the Bullets do indeed come back. .

My preference is to see NZ win the title this year. Still have a thing for get more popularity in NZ with the potential for a second NZ team in the future.

Reply #306313 | Report this post


Beantown  
Years ago

I dream of the day the Sixers will go 9-1 again. Can't see it this year. If we go 6-4 and end with a .500 record I'll be satisfied.

Unless Loughton continues to struggle with his injury, I see Cairns finishing second to the Breakers and then some combo of Perth, Hawks and Townsville rounding out the 4.

I reckon the Sixers and Blaze will fight it out for 6th unless Sav doesn't make it back.

Reply #306315 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

May have left the run too late, but would like to be surprised. A lot of road games to come, but a few winnable ones - if we catch Perth again before players return from injury and we're not complacent, that one's possible. Melbourne are rock-bottom right now. Gold Coast on the road isn't too intimidating, but far from anything you could pencil in. Any Sydney games right now are a bit dangerous.

Reply #306320 | Report this post


Jack Toft  
Years ago

We need to displace one of the 4. NZB look like Minor Premiers and Cairns have been 9/10 at home. They have 4 more home games. Perth (prob W), Sydney (w), Mel (W), and Townsville (50/50). Their other away games are TVL (L), Sydney (50/50), Mel (W), Sixers (L), Perth (L), and WOL (50/50).

Cairns will probably go 16 and 12.

Perth's weaknesses have been exposed. 4 More home games ADL (40/60), GCB (W, W) and Cairns (W). Away games are Cairns (L), Sydney (50/50), Wol (W), NZ (L), and TVL (L).

Perth likely to end up 16 and 12 or 17 and 11.

Townsville are 8/9 at home and last home games Cairns (W), Wol (W), Syd (W), NZ (70/30), Perth (W). Away games are NZB (L), Wol (70/30), Mel (W), and Cairns (50/50)

Townsville likely to end up 17 and 11, or 18 and 10.

Wollongong are all over the place and I would suggest are running no better than 50/50 at home (Perth (L), NZB (L), TVL (L), ADL (50/50), Cairns (50/50) and Sydney (60/40)) and would probably get dumped on by Lightning in away games. NZB (L), Mel (10/90), TVL (L), GCB (L)

The mighty 'Gong to continue tumbling like a Blast Furnace. Could be as bad as 9 and 19, likely to be 10 and 18. No finals actions for this proud club.

The best table for the Sixers would be looking like New Zealand, Townsville (18), Perth (16), Cairns (16)
Based on this, the Sixers need to get to 17 W (9/10), to jump over Cairns who have the series against us. 16W means we finish equal with Perth and Cairns. We have the series over Perth, and so we want Perth to be Cairns to give us any hope.

Reply #306332 | Report this post


No Deal!!  
Years ago

I don't think we will grab the last playoff spot but I think we won't be far off it. Getting that first road win is big, hopefully we can snag a few more. Our run home isn't too bad considering we are mostly away.

I think 7-3 is entirely realistic.

Syd away - Win
GC away - Win
Melb Home - Win
Per away - Loss
Crns Home - Win
Wol away - Loss
Syd away - Win
Mel Home - Win
GC away - Win
NZ away - Loss

Reply #306348 | Report this post


Hendo8888  
Years ago

We just won our first away game in something like 15 attempts and now we are a realistic chance to win 4 out of the 7 to come?

The sixers haven't been favourites in an away game for quite a few years. We just don't travel at all well enough.

I think it's realistic to see us struggle to win our 3 home games and maybe pinch 1-3 away game if we're lucky. Melbourne could quite easily torch us again at home like they always seem to do. We should beat Cairns however. Sydney have been a bit more dangerous of late, but I'd be disappointed if we didn't win 1. Gold Coast now have their team together, so could conceivably go for a nice run from here on in. Wollongong look like pushovers at this point in time, but that's 6 games away, they could be back to normal by then.

Gold Coast have a very good list and when injury free are dangerous to any team.
Wollongong are close to unbeatable with Saville at home.
Sydney still have a woeful list, but they have a bit of confidence at this point and have a big croud behind them. Dickel has made a big difference imo.
If Melbourne do go ahead with losing Helliwell, they suddenly have the right balance. Burston and Nevill will account for Johnson and Ballinger at C easily.
Cairns can't travel, but Crosswell and Loughton and Ubaka and Dillon are difficult match-ups for our line-up.
We've beaten Perth 3 times this year, surely we can't win all 4?
The only game that you can put down any result with any sort of confidence is our loss to New Zealand.

Reply #306372 | Report this post


No Deal!!  
Years ago

Hendo, I didn't say that I thought any of those games were set in stone.

Gold Coast & Sydney are the only teams I think that we will beat on the road. I don't see how thats too hard to fathom, Syd are awful, plus they no longer have Dickel, GC are erratic, they were completely unconvincing against the kings on the weekend.

If there was ever a time that we were going to go on a run and break the road hoodoo its now. Of course it's not set in stone but i'm optimistic we can go out this season in winning form.

Reply #306376 | Report this post


XY  
Years ago

I would be happy if we get 5-5 for the rest of the season, overjoyed if we do better than that.

I still think finals are out of the question. Prove me wrong Sixers.

Reply #306390 | Report this post


Mystro  
Years ago

Beantown, you are prob right, Cairns can realistically finish second but to do it they will need some more road wins on top of taking care of business at home like they have all season.

I'm liking the Blaze at the moment. Worthington is solid, Harvey is back, Ira Clark is a beast and Gibson, Goulding ect can all play. Entertaining to watch but prob not going to make the playoffs.

Reply #306413 | Report this post


Beantown  
Years ago

Mystro, did you see Cairns play NZ on the weekend? I didn't but it sounded as though they played well enough to beat the top side at home. What did you think of their performance? I reckon they are not too far away from getting a couple of away wins if Loughton stays healthy and that would probably cement second.

Blaze are an enigma this season. They do have a lot of good players as you say, and yet when I saw them play the Sixers a couple of weeks ago, I couldn't believe how open they left the keyway most of the time! If the Sixers were a bit more polished offensively, it would have been a layup drill instead of a close game!

Reply #306426 | Report this post


Beantown  
Years ago

Scratch that. I just realised that game was in Cairns. Face palm!

Reply #306450 | Report this post


mystro  
Years ago

spot on with the Blaze call, Beantown.

Reply #306475 | Report this post




You need to be a registered user to post from this location. Register here.



Close ads
Little Streaks - The fun and interactive good-habits app designed especially for kids.
Serio: Tourism photography and videography

Advertise on Hoops to a very focused, local and sports-keen audience. Email for rates and options.

Recent Posts



.


An Australian basketball forum covering NBL, WNBL, ABL, Juniors plus NBA, WNBA, NZ, Europe, etc | Forum time is: 2:19 am, Fri 29 Mar 2024 | Posts: 968,026 | Last 7 days: 754