Isaac
Years ago

NBL Odds, Round 1

No odds for Tigers-Kings. Centrebet still waiting on the potential Bogut signing obviously.

Blaze 1.30
Breakers 3.45
Line -6.5

Taipans 1.40
Crocs 2.95
Line N/A

36ers 2.75
Cats 1.45
Line +4.5
36ers paying 8.30 for a double figure win but that'd be very hopeful given two major omissions.

Hawks 1.40
Breakers 2.95
Line N/A

Any value in there? Breakers could be long in both games. Line in the 36ers game isn't that crazy given the Cats' odds. If you fancied Perth, you might want to consider -4.5.

Couple of the games have 'First to score' options. In the 36ers game, the current odds are:

NEVILL, Luke (PER) 4.50
REDHAGE, Shawn (PER) 4.50
JOHNSON, Daniel (ADE) 7.00
LISCH, Kevin (PER) 7.00
TOVEY, Cameron (PER) 7.00
WARREN, Chris (ADE) 7.00
WEIGH, Stephen (ADE) 7.00
HELLIWELL, Wade (ADE) 9.00
MARTIN, Damian (PER) 9.00
NG, Darren (ADE) 9.00
Looks like Centrebet have picked their starting line-ups there.

Topic #26500 | Report this topic


Phil  
Years ago

Good to see they are betting on these games. I recall last season many bookies framing markets very late or not at all for the NBL. 'First to score' markets also add some interest.

Reply #333404 | Report this post


Panther32  
Years ago

I reckon I would be happy to take those odds on the Breakers and 11+ on Perth to win as a multi. May even chcuk some dollars on either Weigh or Redhage for first score considering Weigh will come out firing in the first quarter and Redhage will have DJ guarding him.

Reply #333406 | Report this post


Opt  
Years ago

Really? Breakers to loose both games? Wasn't expecting that

Reply #333410 | Report this post


KingJames  
Years ago

Without Penney they will be much more vulnerable this season. However, the Hawks vs Breakers game I would think Breakers would still be favourites or at least the odds more closer. I guess it is a case of first home game advantage but that certainly isn't the case with the Sixers. Perhaps they think that the Breakers will be too tired from the Blaze game.

Either way I am looking forward to a good betting season :)

Reply #333417 | Report this post


Mick  
Years ago

In preseason play Townsville obliterated Cairns. Gill abused the severely undersized Wilson, and Blanchield is taller than nearly everyone on their roster and he plays 3 for the Crocs. Unless Crosswhite really steps up they don't have a chance.

Definitely some value there.

Reply #333418 | Report this post


DB5  
Years ago

Man, I wish they would offer those first to score bets on Sportsbet.

Was very suprised at the Breakers odds, jumped on them early in the week, and Adelaide (hoping we might get them feeling casual about the game).

Reply #333419 | Report this post


xztatik  
Years ago

Any MVP betting around, Isaac? Won a shitload off Ervin last year but my boys Luxbet don't have any NBL at all now.

Reply #333424 | Report this post


Mystro  
Years ago

Breakers won a fair few games at the start of last season without Kirk Penney and Henare wasn't a scorer and Wilkinson was new to the club last season.
Still have Wilkinson, CJ, Corletto, Abercrombie and Vukona to put points on the board and yet everyone is writing them off since Penney has left.

Reply #333428 | Report this post


DB5  
Years ago

I think Corletto could really step up in a scoring role with Penney gone. Tigers will lose out badly IMO.

Reply #333430 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

Mick, I think the concern is that they have lost Schenscher and Hinder while only adding Holmes and Vanderjagt (unless this talk of not passing a medical is true). Crocs also have a number of other players under an injury cloud.

Taipans have a somewhat underwhelming roster with Loughton and Crosswhite questionable, but Dowdell has faced Holmes during the ABL season and they're otherwise fairly prepared.

Perhaps worth a bet, but I don't know that I'd load up on that. Home court advantage is also pretty strong in the NBL.

Reply #333432 | Report this post


DB5  
Years ago

Isaac, how does the line bet work again?
Apologies for ignorance here...

Reply #333436 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

Others have explained it more succinctly in the past, but it's kinda like a near-even-odds bet on either side of the predicted margin. When there's one figure, it's listed for the first/home team. Think of it like a handicap/adjustment for an evenish bet (e.g., $1.90).

36ers 2.75
Cats 1.45
Line +4.5
So, this says that they think the Cats will win by 4-5 points. The half-point gives you a clear margin - basically a two-horse race. They think that Adelaide would need a +4.5 headstart for scores to finish level, if that makes any sense.

If it were -9.5, they're expecting Adelaide to win by 9-10ish. There will be a line and then other lines you can also bet on for longer or shorter odds.

e.g., when I said that Adelaide were paying $8.30 for a double figure win, I meant Centrebet were offering $8.30 for a line of -9.5. For a line of +19.5, they might only offer $1.05 - you'd collect on that if Adelaide either won, or lost by less than 20 points (e.g., not so common in an even competition).

For a practical example, if you thought the Cats would win, but didn't like the $1.45 odds, you might figure "Well, if they win, given injuries, it'll probably be by 6-7 points," and take $1.90 instead. It just adjusts the result you're betting on a little. Instead of win-loss, you're betting as though the definition of win or loss was tweaked.

One bit of advice I read once suggested avoiding the "exotics" - things like first to score, player to hit most threes, opening score type, top scorer, etc. Instead, go for the line or under/over (total game score).

Unless he only ever tells me about his successes and there are loads of failures, I believe DJ on here has some luck with the under/over bets.

In that case, they will say something like 192.5 and you will be betting whether you think the combined points total of both teams will be under or over that. e.g., Blaze-Breakers might be more inclined to be high scoring, while Cats and past Taipans teams were usually a grind. The bookies don't have a blanket figure though -- they will adjust this depending on the match-up, past stats, etc.

As always, you're banking on your knowledge of the league (or pure luck) topping that of the bookies.

Reply #333438 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

have a source close to Centrebet, and MVP odds will be up after Round 1. Would be hard to price up Mills and Bogut with the uncertainty about how long they will be here for.

Reply #333443 | Report this post


Camel 31  
Years ago

So far , Herbert's got 4 and 5 fouls every game.
Hasn't shot well , but is guarding pretty hard.
A coupla nice threes against Melbourne , in the fourth
but got his fourth and had to sit agen. So, maybe pretty good to start Ng.
Johnson's been a slow starter , every game but finishes with twenty.
As I say , Warren went from back court to layup twice
before Cairns knew who he was , then shot terribly against Melbourne, while Crossiwell was going pretty good and Weigh goes about it for twenty.
We might see Nevill look over his left shoulder and see Hellwell there , so Nevill gives it to Redhage for the first score and $4.50.
From there , it's straight up. A little jolt of Weigh and some Warren. Let's go !

Reply #333446 | Report this post


DB5  
Years ago

Thanks Isaac, appreciated. I actually hit the exotic bets a bit, seem to be longer odds, but like you said a lot of luck as well.

Side note : got on Gee/Coll/Gee/Gee bet for the quarter time leads last week, was paying about $20. That's why I like those exotic ones...Will have to try this under/over now though..

Reply #333458 | Report this post


DJ Rod  
Years ago

Nevill didnt start a game at the blitz, that i can recall

Reply #333470 | Report this post


dud  
Years ago

Well Matt Knight did....Guess who steps in his place?

Reply #333487 | Report this post


Camel 31  
Years ago

Seems there was an AFL Grand Final on Saturday and ya can bet on next years winner , today .
No wonder a man gets footyed out at times in summa.

Reply #333527 | Report this post


alexkrad  
Years ago

I dont know much about betting but Wildcats paying $3.45 according to the centerbet box pretty much perpendicular to the last line "Wildcats by 16" of the preview story on the nbl website must be a pretty good gamble?

Reply #333664 | Report this post


KingJames  
Years ago

Perth are paying $1.45 to beat Adelaide. Do you mean $3.45 to win the championship?

Reply #333665 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

MVP Odds now up on Centrebet

Reply #333668 | Report this post


alexkrad  
Years ago

http://www.nbl.com.au/news/article/2011/october/r1-preview-adelaide-36ers-v-perth-wildcats/

its changed to the realistic odds now

Reply #333716 | Report this post


Camel 31  
Years ago

Herbert's a definate starter.!
That was Clarke on 5aa , just then.

Of Stephen Weigh , I would describe Clarke as astounded , frequently praising him as a player at 2 3 and 4 , as a person , as a crowd drawer, amongst many other compliments.
Weigh has a big fan , there.

Reply #333725 | Report this post


DB5  
Years ago

1 NZ game down. Sweet!
Can they back it up in the 'gong?

Reply #333745 | Report this post




You need to be a registered user to post from this location. Register here.



Close ads
Little Streaks - The fun and interactive good-habits app designed especially for kids.
Serio: Tourism photography and videography

Advertise on Hoops to a very focused, local and sports-keen audience. Email for rates and options.

Recent Posts



.


An Australian basketball forum covering NBL, WNBL, ABL, Juniors plus NBA, WNBA, NZ, Europe, etc | Forum time is: 3:37 pm, Tue 23 Apr 2024 | Posts: 968,026 | Last 7 days: 754