thanks for posting this has been on my mind most of the day

The Boomers goal heading into the tournament was top-3 in our pool. To achieve that, we will most likely need to win the two remaining games against GB and Russia. In the event of a tie (eg. both Brazil and Australia finish 3-2) it comes down to points difference (or 'goal average by division' as FIBA like to call it).

Currently we are +4 and Brazil are +8.

I think I read we need to beat Russia by more than 8 to get 2nd? (if there is a 3 way tie for 2nd)

Anon - Brazil are 216 For and 208 Against for a Difference of +8.

alexkrad - I'm not a maths expert by any stretch, but I'm not sure how that could be calculated at this point without knowing the scores of the next games. We're currently 36 points behind Russia, so Spain would have to whoop them pretty bad, as would we, to make that up.

My understanding is that if there is a 3 way tie it works on the head to head between the tied teams only.

So if it is a tie between Brazil , Russia and Australia then the +/- is irrelevant for games v China, Spain and GB


currently Brazil 1-1 and is +3 ( +4 v Aus and -1 v Russia)
Russia is 1-0 and +1
Australia is 0-1 -4

We need to beat Russia by 8 to be the top of this group as it would end up

Australia 1-1 (+4)
Brazil 1-1 (+3)
Russia 1-1 (-7)

so we HAVE to beat Russia by 8 to finish 2nd
Beat Russia < 8 to finish 3rd
a loss to Russia means we finish 4th

All under the assumption we beat GB and that Spain beats Russia

IF Russia beats Spain it will come down to the last game of the Pool to decide final places.

If head-to-head results came into play, wouldn't France be ranked 2nd in their group right now ahead of Argentina who they beat? Both team have 2-1 records, both teams have 5 points, France beat Argentina, yet Argentina's points difference is +39 whilst France is -12, hence Argentina are 2nd and France are 3rd.

Excuse my ignorance people. I've just read the FIBA rules, now I understand how it all works. Points difference doesn't really matter until all games have been played, and there are at least three teams that finish with the same record.

So in my France and Argentina result above, if they finish with identical win-loss records (eg. USA are 5-0, and they both finish 3-2, and Lithuania finish 2-3) then France will finish 2nd and Argentina 3rd, due to the fact that France beat Argentina.

Only focus right now has to be beating Great Britain. Would one of Ingles or Newley match up on Deng? If so, and they do well, it could be a good way of getting some NBA attention or getting another Euro contract (in the case of Newley).

I'd be amazed if anyone gets an NBA contract after what we've seen so far. Competent enough for Euro ball but nowhere near NBA level.

Also to keep in mind is the Boomer's short turnaround for their final game against Russia:

(All these times are local UK time): They play GB at 8pm Saturday night, then have Russia 9am Monday morning! Russia plays Spain at 11.15am in their Saturday game.

The Boomers have been dealt a particularly tough schedule, so it goes without saying that ideally we would want to blow out GB so we can spread the playing minutes and rest our stars later in the game, to freshen up for the critical Russian game. If the respective form of Aus and GB is any indication though a blowout seems unlikely.

in regards to one of Varts earlier posts, if Australia and Brazil end in a two way tie (3-2) then Brazil are automatically ranked ahead of AUS on head to head.

Games live on Foxtel 4am Sun morn & 7 pm Monday night (EST).

I agree hoopie, lucky Mills already signed b4 Olympics as his erratic play wouldn't warrant a Spurs contract. Also interesting is how wrapped in cotton wool he is by coach Brown. Should have been dragged in 4th last night for constant bad shot selection in trying to take on 7 footers! Brown did 0 & luckily he nailed some 3's. Looked stats hungry for mine..

I saw this interesting bit of news, which might influence what we have to win by

"the team that finishes third in Group B can avoid facing Team USA until the gold-medal match, while the second-place Group B team would have to face the U.S. one round earlier. The easiest way to avoid Team USA until the final possible moment is to "control your own destiny" and win Group B, but Russia and Brazil — the latter looking very shaky so far — would likely have to upend Spain to do that. If your overriding goal is to avoid Team USA as long as possible — and it should be, if you want a medal — the system has incentivized someone among the Spain/Brazil/Russia crew to dive for third place.
The incentives aren't totally clear-cut. Finishing third in Group B means playing the No. 2 finisher from Team USA’s group in the quarterfinals, while winning the No. 2 slot gets you No. 3 from Group A — an inferior team, in theory. And a team tanking for No. 3 could unintentionally end up at No. 4, a slot that means an immediate quarterfinal date against the Americans. But the first negative isn’t so negative, now that France has upset Argentina and thrown a monkey wrench into the Group A standings, and the second punishment would require an upset somewhere from Great Britain, China or Australia.

The general point: Keep an eye on Group B as the preliminary rounds go on."

Yep, thanks for the clarification HO. You're definitely correct on that one mate. Sorry for the confusion everyone!

I honestly cannot see us beating either GB or Russia at thsi stage.

We can beat GB for sure, but we cant be undisciplined like we were against China.

I expect us to win this game reasonably well after a fight. Their lack of offensive sophistication will play right into our hands defensively, whereas the better teams can pick our d apart. Offensively I think we'll get enough cheap baskets from our pressure to make up for our half court struggles.

I have a feeling we might be better off coming 3rd then 2nd if it means a crossover vs france. We have beaten them recently and just think we match up better with our erratic play hen against the tried and true experienced Argies. In any case we have to beat Russia first(and GB) and that in itslef will be very difficult and an epic achievement.