NotJack
Years ago
CABL Finals - Round 1
Well the business end of the season is upon us, and it is time to find out who the real contenders for the title this season are. Like usual I will do a 'by the numbers' analysis, and hope that Jack Toft can provide his usual quality write ups as well.
Women's
Qualifying Final
Sturt (2nd 13-5) v North (3rd 13-5) @ Pasadena
Previous Results - North 61 def by Sturt 65 & Sturt 62 def North 50.
The game decided for these two teams lies in distribution, contribution and defense. During their last two meetings, Sturt have had a combined 7 players in double figures, yet North have only had 2. For the season both teams average 3 players in double figure scoring.
Sturt have shot the ball at 38.8% for the season making 469 of 1208 attempts, where as North have made 512 of 1278 attempts which is good enough for 40.1%. Yet when North play Sturt they have shot 43 from 140 which is 10% lower for a 30.7% clip. Sturt have shot 47 of 131 which equates to a 35.9% clip.
The rest of the stats are so very close for their match ups except for distribution - in form of assists. Rebounds are equal at 81 a piece with North edging the O boards by 3. Sturt have the edge on turnovers with 33 to 31. North are just in front on Steals 18 to 15. Sturt again are in front for free throw attempts 40-38. The only differentiating stat is assists, Sturt leading the way with 34 assists to 18.
Norths leading scorer and star player Jo Hill, has season averages of 18ppg, 9.9rpg and 3spg, which places her 3rd in the league for scoring, 5th for rebounding, and 3rd for steals. However versus Sturt her output dips to 11.5ppg at 13% lower than her season average, this is to go with only 6rpg, and 1.5spg. It must be noted though, that Hill did only play 16 minutes in their Round 12 encounter.
Norths other player of their star duo, is Jamie-Lee Peris. Season averages of 12.3ppg at 55% and 10.2rpg, sees her good enough for 3rd in rebounding and shots blocked, however also 5th most turnovers in the league. Versus Sturt Peris contribution also dips, averaging only 8.5ppg at 40%, 7.5rpg, and 4.5 turnovers per game - higher that her season average.
Sturt has been led this season by Amy Shaw 11.3ppg and 6.8rpg, Molly Lewis 10.8ppg and 6.7rpg and Hannah Bowley 12.8ppg and 5.8rpg. Not one Sturt players features in leading scoring, rebounding or assists, which indicates a true team game and effort. Shaws output v North is 8ppg and 10.5rpg, Lewis is 9ppg and 6.5rpg, and Bowley is 11.5ppg and 4.5rpg. Like North all of the star players performance dips compared to their season averages, which is expected against another contending team.
So my keys to this game are Norths ability to move the balls, and find better scoring options than previous match ups, and Sturts ability to shoot the ball at an improved clip. Both teams benches, and starting 5 role players, are so pivotal to the result. For North, they need the offensive contribution of the leagues 2nd best 3pt shooter in Shannon McKay, and proven offensive threat Genna Anderson - last season she had 12 games in double figures, including a 36 point outing. For Sturt it lies with Hannah Richards who is capable for averaging double doubles every game, and Aneeka Smith who is also a valuable contributor at both ends of the floor.
My tip is for Sturt to win by 10.
Elimination Final
Forestville (4th 12-6) v Eastern (5th 11-7) @ Wayville
Previous Results - Forestville 62 def Eastern 59 and Eastern 52 def by Forestville 71.
First time round, the Eagles won by shooting the 3ball better - 8/17 v 5/20. Second time round, the Eagles won by Tess Madgen not playing.
Over the two games, Eastern shot 42/135 for 31% clip, this compares to a season average of 36.9%, Forestville shot 37.9% for the season, against the Mavs they shot 52/138 37.7%. Forestville have had 3 players averaging double figures this season, being Jess Fergus with 13.9ppg, Olivia Thompson 16.2ppg and 11.5rpg and Mia Newley 13.2ppg and 10.1rpg. Versus Eastern, Fergus output remains her consistent self, Thompsons output drops from 16.2ppg to 12ppg - due to the Round 7 clash where Madgen held her to 7. Newley only played the one game, which saw her drop 14 and 14.
Eastern have 4 contributors in double figure averages for the season, with Alex Wilson 13.5ppg and 8rpg, Jemma Thacker with 11.6ppg, Shannon Tarran 14.2ppg and 8.1rpg, and Tess Madgen with 31ppg, 12rpg, and 7.5apg. Against the Eagles, Madgens output dropped to 25ppg and 7rpg, Tarran dropped to 6.5ppg and 4.5rpg, Thacker 8ppg and 5.5rpg (however she only played 7 minutes in round 7), and Wilson has not suited against the Eagles.
It is hard to draw any meaningful stat match up considerations due to the variety of line ups that each team will suit coming into this game. Wilson missed both games, Madgen missed one, and Newley missed one.
The key match ups for this game have to be, Madgen on Thompson. Fergus on Madgen. And the mismatches of Newley and Wilson. What is the best part about having Tess Madgen on your team, the scoring? the rebounds? the leadership? Or the way she attracts the defense to her and opens up so many options. Without Madgen, Eastern dont look great, and with an injury cloud hanging over head, they must be nervous up in the hills.
My tip is - Eastern to win by 5. Madgen to be healthy, and the Eagles unable to contain her and Wilson. The Eagles have not been playing as good as their list suggests, and although they have the experience of finals Basketball, they wont go any further. Sharon to ride the referees all the way to Villi's in the hope of drawing fouls on Madgen, and Fergus to have a sore backside from trying to draw offensive fouls.
Men's
Qualifying Final
Woodville (2nd 15-3) v Forestville (3rd 12-6)
Previous games results - Woodville 83 def Forestville 67 and Forestville 75 def by Woodville 81.
What a difference the National League players make. With Gibson due to play in Auckland on Wednesday night, makes this a difficult prospect for someone who is not, on the inside. Im sure both teams know if he is suiting, and have made adjustments either way.
The first two meetings saw the Warriors go 2 from 2, in reasonably convincing fashion. Only losing 1 quater during each game, and exposing the Eagles defensively in both games. The Warriors shot 63/138 for 45.7% whilst holding the Eagles to 53/145 for 36.6%. The Warriors also hold a massive edge on rebounding with 90 to 53. The Warriors have gone a season 534 from 1262 for 42.3% versus the Eagles 558 from 1234 for 45.2%, which shows that the Warriors match up well defensively versus the Eagles.
This is shown in the output of Forestvilles star pairing of Jake Rios 21.8ppg - 2nd leading scorer in the league, and Adam Doyle 19ppg and 4apg - 5th leading scorer. However versus Woodville Doyle averages on 17.5ppg and Rios averages 14.5 (only played 7 minutes during Round 8 clash). The inclusion of Mottram for the Round 17 clash saw him drop 12 points, which is 5ppg above his season average.
Woodvilles stud pairing of Darren Ng 19.8ppg at 38.2% good enough for 4th leading scorer, and Aaron Wyatt also at 19.8ppg but at 45.5% sees him take out 3rd place. Against Forestville, Ng's output lifted to 22.5ppg at 41.6% however Wyatts dropped 15ppg at 47.8%.
And then comes the Gibson factor. Gibson was good for 17.4ppg, 6.6rpg and 7.9apg. Doyles number do suffer, but the Eagles ball movement and spacing becomes much better with him on the floor.
The key to this game is reliant on the Rios v Wyatt match up and the output of Ng and Doyle. Rios stats do not lend themselves to being team orientated, averaging a dismal 1.9apg, and against Woodville, Rios did not rebound the ball once, did not throw one dime, and registered 3 fouls. Wyatt on the other hand pulled 7 boards and registered 5 assists. You then have the Doctor and Doyle. Ng is the best pure shooter alot of us have ever seen at CABL level, and Doyle is the best point in the league. In the back half of the season Ng has averaged 23.4ppg. Before Gibson arrived on the scene Doyle was averaging 21.2ppg.
My tip is an upset, going against the form guide, for the Eagles to get the W by single digits. If Gibbo plays, by double digits. Too much experience in pressure sitations of recent times. The Doctor and Wyatt to drop buckets of buckets, but the Eagles to find some form.
Elimination Final
Centrals (4th 11-7) v North (10th 10-8)
Previous games results - Centrals 63 def by North 65 and North 68 def by Centrals 75
Welcome back to the finals for Centrals, the first time since 1991.
With both teams taking a game, lets have a look at the stats behind their encounters and season so far. First time round Petrie did play for North in Round 8, and they won by 2, in Round 17 Petrie did play and they lost by 7. This isnt to say that Petrie is bad for the Rockets, but perhaps the Lions prefer the match up. Round 8 it took a massive fourth quater effort by the rockets outscoring the lions 23-9, to just win by 2. In Round 17 the lions outscored the rockets 23-11 in the fourth to win by 7.
The rockets were led this year by Petrie 19.5ppg and 13.8rpg, Vasiljevic 18.1ppg and 10.3rpg and Franceschinis 12.6ppg. Petrie had similar output in their two meetings, however pulled 21 boards in their Round 17 clash. Pero maintained his consistent output, however in Norths win Franceschini did not play, but in their loss her had 4 and 4.
Centrals have been led by the increasingly streaky Kyle Miller 16.8ppg, and the reliable Christopher Clausen 17.4ppg and 9rpg. Against the rockets Clausen averaged 18.5ppg and 7rpg, and Miller averaged 18ppg and 5.5rpg.
Kyle Miller has lost significant touch this Season, perhaps affected by the inclusion of Clausen, Millers production has dipped from last season (22.9ppg @ 40.% v 16.8ppg 36.8%) and he is only shooting 13.3ppg at 46/143 for 32%.
The stats for these two teams is close, with Centrals leading the rebounds 86 to 84, North have a comfortable lead with assists with 41 to 26, Centrals in front on Turnovers 22 to 27.
The key to this game lies in Millers output, and Centrals ability to move the ball and space the floor. They have the veteran guards in Frost and Atkins, and require Atkins to make the 3 ball, and Frost to play his style of dirty hustle D, and space the floor for Clausen to work. For North it has to be about attacking the paint, and wearing down Clausen defensively. When you match up the benches, and role players, Centrals are in front, with the mix of experience, and skillful youth off the bench. Rowe and Wernham are so important to Norths chances, and must play well, to support Petrie and Pero.
My tip is Centrals, by 7. Through experience, hustle D, and Kyle Miller finding his Mojo. He needs to take his shooters mentality into the game. Remove their Round 15 home game Miller was averaging 18.4ppg at home, almost 5ppg better than on the road.
