Prefer to play Cairns. I think NZ are a bit more battle-hardened. Guys like Jackson, Vukona and Abercrombie now have enough experience with finals pressure, plus then you have cocksure Webster prone to running up the score and frisky Ibekwe.

I'm not convinced that the Taipans have the same qualities, regardless of their position on the ladder.

For Adelaide, the strength is in the frontcourt, so I think we match up well either way having Motum and Johnson to give a relentless offensive option in the paint. I find the big line-ups where Motum or Johnson play SF with Schenscher out there with them quite amusing and would love to see that work in a finals situation.

All that said, if you finish third and win through, you have HCA in the event that the fourth place side knocks off what will probably be Cairns.

I imagine Perth will want to leave Adelaide with NZ, given NZ are 4-0 against them this season. So, Adelaide could take the harder SF route but potentially get HCA in a grand-final rematch.

Should be an excellent play-offs.

Definitely prefer the Cats to be playing Cairns in the semi finals. BUT, if they are going to having any chance of winning the Championship they will need to go the route of beating NZ in the semis and either playing Cairns in the Final or get HCA over 36ers.

another way to look at this i suppose is who do carins and new zealand want to play in a semi final?

"All four have beaten each other I believe."

Breakers swept Perth 4-0

Either of Cairns or NZ should be worried if they drop their first semi final at home.

Until then, I doubt either semi final match up will cause either team too much worry.

"the way cats fan pump up their team "

huh?

Cairns have had a good season but limited finals experience as a group compared to at least two of the other teams. Not sure that is ideal but HCA may counter that.

"the way cats fan pump up their team lead me to believe otherwise"

I think your lack of following in the NBL led to that assumption.

After watching the basketball gods descend from on high at the Arena like Wilbur the Wildcat himself at the end of double overtime to kiss Cedric Jackson on the tip of his John Hancock, Cairns today, Cairns tomorrow, Cairns every day of the week.

Cairns are better than NZ, and in better form, but FFS, the Kiwis have sacrificed goats to Satan or something in order to pay us back for sweeping them last year.

"who will win the 2015 NBL Championship?"

Hard too say. All four have a chance. NZ or 36ers would be favorites but Cairns have HCA and Perth are a chance if the cards fall their way.

"Cairns are better than NZ"

If NZ win this Sunday they both finish 20-8 and 2-2 in the series.

I don't think there is much between NZ, Cairns and Adelaide, while I think Perth will have to improve on the road if they're going to do any damage. They're 1-4 away against the other three and that one W came when Adelaide were struggling.

Perth will win the title easily. Sweep both series, other team might as well not show up.

Once Marvin changes the rules so they get HCA (under the 'capacity clause') they'll be fine.

are you that confident Uwe Blab that you will put your money where your mouth is?

i am sure perth would be paying nicely to win both 2-0

kudos if you are right... i will buy you a beer if perth do win both series 2-0

Cairns - Home court advantage in the Semis, same in the GF if they make it. Not anywhere near as finals hardened as Perth, NZ and Adelaide but their form this season can't be denied.

NZ - Same HCA in the Semis and GF as Cairns if they make it. Not in the best form, though Sunday will have restored some confidence lost when Adelaide beat them at home. Most have been there, done that. The biggest danger IMO.

Perth - Will only get HCA in the GF (should they make it) if other results go their way. Defence isn't a problem, but their offence is misfiring. With a 0-4 record against NZ some might think they'd probably be hoping for Cairns in the Semis, but will play whoever is put in front of them. Still, I don't think they quite have it this year.

Adelaide - The form team of the top 4 but like Perth face the prospect of not having HCA through the finals unless other results fall their way. The win last Thursday will have given them confidence that they can beat the Breakers, and I think we can beat both Cairns and Perth. With the strongest front court in the NBL and a PG who is a strong candidate for league MVP, Adelaide could well be "Title Town" again.

Honestly though, I don't think its a case of who would a team rather play. They will all go out there to win regardless of who it is they are playing.

I was kidding. I just told that evil mastermind anon what he wanted to hear.

I've had NZ as my favourites all year and I still think that is the case.

Would Sunday have restored NZ's confidence? They may be freaking out that they've burned all their luck for the rest of the year lol

The way they talk themselves up, they must have swept every other team this season.

I think Adelaide and NZ are the front runners. Should they meet in the semis, which is looking likely then I think the winner of that series will go on to win the Championship.

Barring anything too drastic I am leaning towards Adelaide. They have the depth and front court to get players (particularly those who are foul prone like Vukona) into foul trouble.

Uwe Blab...

We have...

since 19 Dec have only lost to New Zealand...

So yeah we have beaten every team in that period...

and that game against New Zealand we should have won... lol

Grovermister...Perth fans could argue that they should have won the game on the weekend against NZ too.

There are only wins and losses - not should haves.

The problem with the 36ers at the moment is that they're basically Douglas MacArthur. Could be twice as good as they are and they still wouldn't be half as good as they think they are ;)

They are definitely in title contention though.

They've got around a 25% chance of winning!

@Tornado,

I'm sticking with the curse theory - Vukona and the Breakers have done what Chapman and Geelong did against Hawthorn, made a pact with the Dark Powers. I fear for our next six games with the Breakers :(

yeah i could go through the whole season and state that we should have mroe wins than losses than we have had...

no one was EVER going to beat Melbourne when they hit a ridiculous amount of threes that night... saying that some other teams may have not given them so many open looks... but yeah... swings and roundabouts...

4 deserving teams in the finals and all could win the lot in 3 weeks time

In recent weeks Sixers def Breakers and Cairns, Perth def Cairns and narrowly lost to Breakers.

Sixers Vs Perth and Cairns Vs Breakers will be very interesting to watch.

Hopefully no injuries!

I hope Cairns win the GF myself. It would be great for Basketball in that region, considering the still unknown BS that is the Brisbane bid.

I think it would be great for Australia if the Wildcats win it again because reasons.

Failing that, go Cairns!

I wouldn't be overly upset to see Adelaide take home the trophy. They have paid their dues in recent times

Its the 36ers title too lose at this point. Cant imagine Id be saying this, but the way the other 3 are playing compared to how the 36ers are says so. Fearless up tempo basketball. No one wants to play Adelaide, and thats how you want it going into a 4 team finals!

Having said that, hope 36ers get NZ, and Perth somehow knock off Cairns so we get home court and win it infant of the fans.

Yeah, I think Adelaide-Perth would be a superb showdown.

Prefer to see one of Adelaide or Cairns win it. Adelaide have ridden out some tough years, and Cairns' fans have been waiting long enough.

Oh boy thats gonna bring on some chit chat from a few posters haha Yeah I tend to agree. Was an amazing finish and grind out game against NZ, but that first half, Perth looked woeful and confused on offense. If they take that form into a semi they'll will be exploited. But its sport, its finals, anything can happen i guess.

"I don't think Perth can win the championship"

I'd be waiting to see the result of the 36ers vs Cats game for making that statement :P

NZ are in a bit of form slump also and I think Perth match up pretty well against Carins.

Perth certainly wont be favorites but don't write them off quite yet. Lets not forget they were top of the table before Knight and Ross went down ;)

Quick, anon, double-down. If you're really serious, make it won't win a game.

Let's be clear, right now Perth are fourth in line for championship favouritism. Predicting that, and the results to go accordingly, doesn't make the point you think it makes.

I'd want Adelaide to come 3rd.
NZ/Cairns are both tough match-ups. Craig loves playing us, which makes Cairns another level of dangerous against us specifically. I'd give us roughly the same chance to beat Cairns or NZ in a 3 game series, whereas I'd give Perth a better chance at beating Cairns than NZ (they beat them both times they had Knight playing, vs 0-4 against NZ). So us coming 3rd gives us a very outside, but still possible chance at having the home GF (which I think we need to win it all).
On current form, I'd back us to win the first round of the playoffs (not saying we will, but we have the form needed to do it). So if it means we can either play Cairns in the GF (who I'd be happy to see win it if we don't), or have a home GF against Perth, that's the outcome I want.

As I have said elsewhere, whilst the Cats have the best defence and can give the finals a shake, 3-game series tend to allow the better team to triumph, and I just don't think they're that good.

Sunday was Cats at their almost their defensive best, Daniels had what for him was a good game, and Beal nailed some clutch baskets. And it wasn't enough.

As discussed in the X-Factor thread, their x-factor is Martin's shooting. He made some beautiful moves to the basket early against NZ, and didn't connect, tried a few 3-bombs, missed the lot, and lost confidence. If he starts hitting early, could be a different game. BUT what are the chances he does that in 2 out of 3 games?

NZ have been up and down like yoyos in recent games, They are finals hardened, but difficult to predict this year.

Adelaide are also tough to predict in finals. The proof, as they say, will be in the pudding.

The "obvious" answer is to say that the Cats would prefer to play Cairns. They have comfortably beaten then twice, and only lost without Knight & Hire.
And I suspect the 6's might prefer NZ, as The Breakers have been less consistent.
I suppose in that scenario, if both win, Cats could avoid travelling to Auckland altogether.

Personally, well yeah I'm starting to hate NZ. Typical kiwis they didn't even have the decency to make the finals last year so we could beat them. LOL
So if we're going to lose a SF, I would prefer to lose to Cairns.