LV
Years ago

NBL finals experience as a factor

I've always believed that experience was an important component of finals success.

Of course, there are plenty of examples of inexperienced teams winning the ultimate prize- refer to the Baby Bombers of 93 or the Hawks of 08 as classic Australian examples, or in basketball we could look at the Pistons of 2004 knocking off a Shaq led Lakers team who were going for their 4th championship in 5 years and had just added Karl Malone and Gary Payton. But I’ve always thought of those as being rare, as the exception rather than the rule. Because typically great players and their teams go deep into the playoffs at least once, if not multiple times, before winning a championship.

We’ve got the Cats and Breakers- who are filled with guys who have won multiple championships together. Then you’ve got the Hawks who are led by two guys who both won MVP’s and won it before with those two clubs- Lisch won a GF MVP and an MVP, and Penney’s got credentials- he scored 38 to stave off elimination at The Jungle in a classic against Lisch’s Wildcats before going on to win it all.

Then we have United. A relatively young and inexperienced team. Of their top 6, 2- Majok and Holt- are in their second professional season. Blanchfield’s only 24. Goulding’s now one of the league’s elite players but has limited NBL playoff experience. Two years ago he looked overawed by the occasion and struggled in the semi finals.

Kickert and Warrick do bring lots of experience, but the roster itself is brand new. So is the Hawks -you could say- but really they have a core who have played together for 5 years (Forman, Davidson, Martin, Coenradd) and they added 2 very experienced superstars plus Ogilvy. And of course the Breakers can put a 5 on court who have won 3 championships together (Jackson Webster Abercrombie Vukona Pledger) and Perth have Martin, Beal, Wagstaff, Redhage, Knight, Hire and Jervis who cover all positions on the court and are all long term Wildcats.

This is one of the most even seasons I can remember. Heading into the playoffs, very little splits the top 4 teams in my mind. All have their own strengths and weaknesses but in terms of overall ability there isn’t a lot separating them. All 4 have had stretches where they looked like the team to beat. Obviously those with home court deserve favouritism. But only 3 of the 4 teams are filled with proven professional finals winners. How heavily does the "experience" factor count against United- both individual finals experience and long term roster cohesion/roster inexperience- now that we’re at the business end? How much does all of this matter? Does this figure in your own predictions about who will come out on top?

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LV  
Years ago

And of course, coaching comes into this too- we have 3 NBL championship coaches (two of which have been coaching many of the same players these past few years) vs Demopoulos who is in his first season as a head coach.

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Jack Toft  
Years ago

I can see Melbourne crashing and burning this finals series.

I just don't think they have the mental strength to get the job done

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I think it's an important ingredient although not as significant as momentum & confidence.

I really think Melb Utd & perhaps even Perth have done themselves a disservice for the latter reason by resting players last weekend.

Melb in particular seemed to be hitting a nice groove but now have to rediscover their mojo after mailing it in over the weekend.

A double against NZ could've been a perfect lead in to the finals for Utd - ie enabling them to hit the finals with two tough matches under their belt.. but their "fcukarounditis" could now come back to bite them.

As we all know basketball seasons are swings and roundabouts for teams and form / momentum / confidence goes in runs. IMO United forfeited some of their good stuff over the weekend.

The Hawks on the other hand did exactly the right thing imo by treating what was essentially a dead rubber as a finals prelude.

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LV  
Years ago

They've won a lot of close games this season.

Their record in games decided by 6 points or less is 7-2.

But in the finals, the intensity steps up that final notch.

I'm hoping they're more like the Baby Bombers and the Hawks, and less like the Power- who kept crashing and burning from top spot until they finally got the flag in 2004.

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"They've won a lot of close games this season.
Their record in games decided by 6 points or less is 7-2.
"

Didn't we discuss this last week? Their record in close games is 4-5 ;-)

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LV  
Years ago

Are you forgetting that Game 1 and Game 3 of both series will be at Hisense :-P

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haha touche!

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ROFLcopter  
Years ago

I just posted this in another thread....more relevant here.



I think all United fans should be seriously worried about getting swept.

IMO, if CG43 doesn't fire on Thursday, United are swept. He's copped some heat from this forum and elsewhere for not standing up in the big games. None bigger than Thursday night and for me he is the United barometer.

If United can get past NZ, I think they'll take the chocolates this year.

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Big Ads  
Years ago

LV, your supposition appears rational and logical and should provide comfort to all United fans when United get rolled by the Breakers.

They should have beaten the Breakers both times in the final games of the minor round and given the Sixers (an alleged team of Midgets or Mosquitos) greater hope against a Wildcats team with little to play for.

Still, I suspect even the Sixers would have worried you a little (but not as much as the Breakers). Never mind the opportunity was there but it was passed over, there is always next year :-)

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LV  
Years ago

I don't agree that it's CG43 or bust.

Look, for example at the overtime victory in Perth- one that will, I suspect if United do end up managing to win the title, be seen as *the* season defining moment, for many reasons eg:

- Defeating a *full strength* Perth team (In many early wins against the better teams, the opponents were missing players eg: Lisch and Martin, Prather with Martin in limited minutes, Randle, Vukona and Wesley).

- Beating one of the better teams on the road for the first time.

-Going a long way towards netting them top spot.

Yet in that match it was Holt who set the tone and who was best on court. CG43 had a shocker- possibly his worst game of the season (statistically at least).

I think for the Hawks for example, Ogilvy must do certain things if the Hawks are to beat Perth- he must compete on the boards and protect the rim.

But looking at United, they obviously need some really good contributions from their top 6, but there doesnt appear to be one individual who is absolutely crucial to me, like say Ogilvy is for the Hawks.

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LV  
Years ago

I should add, United had beaten Perth on Dec 27 with Perth also being at full strength- I meant to say that it was the combination of all of the above factors that made the Overtime win in Perth United's most impressive victory of the season.

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KET  
Years ago

Ideally i'd like to see Hawks win it

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Bear  
Years ago

Agree that finals experience is highly rated, however home court during play-offs I believe is more highly rated.

This is why UTD will maybe get over the Breakers and why perhaps the Wildcats can defeat a red hot Hawks...

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