Isaac
Years ago

Boti on the free agent frenzy

Another arms race this off-season could be dangerous for the league, says Boti Nagy, noting a few of the likely movements. Couple of bits below.

It's one thing to pay your marquee Aussie $400,000 with only $150,000 going on the books, but how long can that be afforded if there’s no massive influx of dollars from television rights or from machinations in Asia?
The monies being talked about right now have many players seeing dollar signs and agents happy to auction their guys off to the highest bidder.

Saw this in the 80s, saw it in the 90s, saw it when South Dragons won the title. What did the league look like after that? A basket case which Basketball Australia had to salvage.

The NBL ultimately demerged from BA to save itself from that new disaster, then only took two years to slip back into the mire Executive Director Larry Kestelman saved it from.
Read the full article

Mentions a few likely signings, most of which have already been mentioned about the place:

Cedric Jackson to Melbourne
Stephen Holt to potentially stay in Melbourne
Nathan Jawai to Melbourne
Nick Kay to stay in Townsville
Kirk Penney to NZ
Brisbane going for Rhys Martin

Topic #39251 | Report this topic


Greeny  
Years ago

Just mentioned on Ch10 Perth, Jervis maybe heading to Brisbane and Hire could be suiting up for another team, didn't say who.

Reply #584746 | Report this post


This was the NBL everyone wanted, remember? Especially Boti.

Reply #584752 | Report this post


Watto  
Years ago

The NBL that Boti wanted didn't include Perth winning the title

Reply #584753 | Report this post


drake  
Years ago

Hire to the Hawks? Losing Jervis will hurt the Cats so maybe if Perth is getting Motum they could not keep both Knight and Jervis so one had to go.

Reply #584754 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

SC yes it has been the NBL we all wanted to a degree, BUT the new concern is that owners will over pay year after year and it's damn risky way to place your bets if the returns don't come. Personally think it will be ok, the league is legit the players legit and the public will watch... But geez one bad marketing campaign and the players will be rich one year but unable to find a home the next.

Reply #584756 | Report this post


Pointybits  
Years ago

Rumour 300k for Lisch to Sydney? AJ staying with the Hawks, Penny going home, Pledger to Brisbane. Will NZ be able to have a competitive team to sell?

Reply #584761 | Report this post


Benno  
Years ago

Pledger aint going nowhere

Reply #584762 | Report this post


Perth fan  
Years ago

Pledger signed for 3yrs at New Zealand

Reply #584763 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

and guess who ends up owning all of the clubs?

Reply #584764 | Report this post


Spinner  
Years ago

All these signings and as usual, nothing going on in Adelaide. Let's wait until all the good players are gone and end up with another side that can't make play offs!

Reply #584765 | Report this post


AngusH  
Years ago

No saucy sources, but I half expect Garlepp to head down the Princes Highway... I don't think you could run Tommy and Foreman though unless you want to be murdered on the boards and have AJ picking up 5 fouls in the 1st Q needing to challenge everything at the rim.

Reply #584766 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Garlepp not leaving Sydney. New 2 yr contract done.

Reply #584769 | Report this post


ROFLcopter  
Years ago

Adelaide aren't interested in anyone except midgets.

Midget brigade to get the spoon in 2016/17. BOOM!!

Reply #584770 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

SC back talking crap yet again. The NBL exists at least for another 2 season hopefully.

Reply #584771 | Report this post


Duncan  
Years ago

I was thinking the same as AngusH. Guys can play anywhere in off-season but seems very odd that Garlepp is playing Waratah for the Illawarra Hawks??? I dont see Why Rhys would have any interest in being Gibbo's back up

Reply #584774 | Report this post


RMQ  
Years ago

All NBlplayers want that LischMoney now

Reply #584775 | Report this post


KET  
Years ago

There has to be a balance, and this balance doesn't seem sustainable...

Reply #584777 | Report this post


#771 care to explain what I said was crap? See if you can do it without resorting to attacks on me.

Reply #584779 | Report this post


PeterJohn  
Years ago

Boti has blogged that Penney returned to NZ for "serious family-based reasons", so money probably wasn't the driver there. Maybe he even approached the Breakers?

Reply #584780 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

I understand Boti's point, but I think he is pointing the finger at the wrong party. What he is basically suggesting is that players be realistic about what they should be paid. If money is on the table, they should question that money, be critical of the sustainability of the source and perhaps reject more money for the benefit of the league.

Is he nuts? When most professional athletes careers last 5 years with the lucky ones playing longer, they would be insane not to take a decent pay day while it is available.

It's not the players responsibility to ensure the viability of the league/clubs they play for.

Reply #584789 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

NO one wanted this NBL. That will be next season. It's a recipe for disaster yet again. The NBL has effectively done all this before and it didn't work. The rich will spend over the prescribed limit and the small clubs now HAVE to spend to the limit. It's doomed to fail again in a few seasons.
Who's to say the LKG wont walk in another season after this one. A serious recipe for failure IMO.

Reply #584793 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

This outcome was inevitable from the day LK put his feelers out to take over the league. It was evident what was going on when he started playing fast and loose with the rules with United signings but people ignored it because they got to watch more games on tv.

Now some people have only just twigged what mistakes are about to be made AGAIN as if its a brand new revelation. Its the McPeake era all over again.

Reply #584794 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

When the league refuses to take steps backwards to move forwards what do we expect?

Reply #584797 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

I think this was a risk with the LK NBL plan, but it's unfair to say that this scenario is what "everyone" wanted. Same goes with throwing Boti into that.

You can see many improvements since the separation from BA. Fox presence was great, the app was great, social media has been excellent. The site is subpar, but they've made efforts with content. Awards dinner and its coverage seemed very good. This is while BA fumbled their WNBL and other awards and so on. This was a riskier plan, but with merit regardless.

I think you can back the LK plan without being for some of the potential risks that come from it. Arms race being one.

Also consider that there were big salaries thrown around last season with teams spending almost $2m. Jawai got paid. If they can polarise salaries (stars vs scrubs), there's a chance that could work. But it hinges on a TV deal, and the gamble is that entertaining teams with drawcard players will attract TV.

Hopefully the luxury tax actually filters down to the smaller teams.

Reply #584801 | Report this post


Bear  
Years ago

It was a matter of simply going forward or going backwards, they chose the forward option, at speed...

Reply #584802 | Report this post


I didn't actually say it was the scenario everyone wanted, but this scenario was inevitable with the new strategy that had everyone lapping up whatever LK was throwing out without actually considering the risks.

What good is having an improved game night presentation (and the other things you mentioned) when fans aren't actually turning up to watch their team because they know they aren't competitive? This was Illawarra in 2014/15!

Boti's blog contains all the recent examples of the arms race almost killing the league but he couldn't join those dots 12-18 months ago? And blaming the player agents? Thats a cop out - more like he doesn't want to bite the hand that feeds him.

Reply #584804 | Report this post


MACDUB  
Years ago

I don't blame players for jumping ship for extra coin.

The thing is that the extra money being offered is so significant. Not necessarily out and out dollars wise, but wen you consider its actual value, it's huge.

An extra $30k for example is huge. If someone came and said basically they will pay off your mortgage for a year and then some you'd jump at it.

There's not too many non-monetary factors in the league which are going to override the money factor. Every team is in a location which is a great place to live, an NBL championship is not that prestigious that guys say 'ah lets give up $30k to win a title' and it's not like players can earn more money from sponsorship/selling their image from living in a particular area ala NBA.

Reply #584805 | Report this post


BMF  
Years ago

Agreed, these guys need to make the most of the short time they do have, none will be super rich to live off what they make now, but certainly able to get a good start..

Shame still as it is taking from the poorer teams who sometimes make a good player very much better....and with it, money thrown at them

Reply #584811 | Report this post


AngusH  
Years ago

I think it's too soon to say how much teams are potentially setting themselves up for trouble financially until we start seeing how much the tier 2 and 3 guys start signing for. It's not surprising to see big dollar figures thrown at some of the guys so far, but if we start seeing a similar creep across the board then obviously it's a worry...

TBH I think they would've been better keeping the import slots to 2 to go with the other financial rules.

Reply #584816 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

"This was the NBL everyone wanted, remember?" You said.
No one wanted the NBL to be what it is this new season coming, ever. All we wanted was for the NBL to continue to survive, some more TV coverage and sustain the League for a bit. That's what we wanted then and now.
You aren't everyone despite what you think.
The recipe as I said previously has been done before. It failed. Now we have demands that all of the clubs that didn't spend to the cap have to spend to at least 90%. A sad mistake. One more season after this and LKG may simply walk and where is the sustainability in this model? Nowhere to be seen.

Reply #584822 | Report this post


"All we wanted was for the NBL to continue to survive, some more TV coverage and sustain the League for a bit. That's what we wanted then and now"

You weren't getting any of that without the current issues inevitably occurring.

"The recipe as I said previously has been done before. It failed. Now we have demands that all of the clubs that didn't spend to the cap have to spend to at least 90%. A sad mistake. One more season after this and LKG may simply walk and where is the sustainability in this model? Nowhere to be seen."

Exactly! Its going to kill the league AGAIN and he'll walk away. But everyone was so blinded by the bells and whistles that they didn't dare suggest that things wouldn't work out....until now.

Reply #584825 | Report this post


MACDUB  
Years ago

I'm philosophical about it.

As much as it would be disappointing to see a team like Townsville get pushed out of the league because they can't compete financially, a large part of me thinks that we need to progress at some point and it becomes a case of 'leaving the weak links' behind.

Now, if there a majority of clubs were like Townsville then sure I wouldn't support the growth changes as much, but i'm not sure there are (Sydney, Perth, NZ, Melbourne, Wollongong, Adelaide and Brisbane all seem financially capable with new changes)

Reply #584826 | Report this post


Very Old  
Years ago

One or three players per top 4 teams on eye-watering single season money has been the case probably every 2 out of 3 seasons for the life of the league,

I remember Ray-Ray Borner allegedly being paid $40K to move out of Melbourne in the 80's - this at a time when the price of a 3 bedroom character house in one suburb of Adelaide was sold for $55K in 1983, the same one which sold last week, un-renovated/extended for $625K.

A public service clerk position which now gets paid $105k was only $16K in that same year.

That team and the league still survives today.

Also the trick of it all is television money - no-one other than Perth is going to cover their budged with just ticket sales.

Get a good lucrative multi-year television deal in the next 2 seasons and the rising financial tide will lift all boats.

Reply #584827 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

NO one was blinded. You said "This was the NBL everyone wanted, remember". I don't recall you saying it was a bad thing. Certainly it is a better situation that Marvin pulling himself and the NBL. But this season and next may be the end.

Reply #584830 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Why all the doomsday?

Sorry, but someone with a huge investment in something will have done the due diligence on changes such as the ones we are seeing now. I think they might know a little more of how it is projected to go than a few fans posting on a forum.

Chill out

Reply #584831 | Report this post


koberulz  
Years ago

Get a good lucrative multi-year television deal in the next 2 seasons and the rising financial tide will lift all boats.
The current Fox deal is five years.

Reply #584832 | Report this post


How is the NBL ending within two years a better outcome than what might have happened? How can you say the current model is unsustainable, a mistake, and bound to fail again, then say its "certainly" better than something we previously had?

The silly thing is, we're basically agreeing on the same things but your 'curious'obsession with me isn't allowing you to see it!

Reply #584834 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

This was the NBL everyone wanted, remember?
I didn't actually say it was the scenario everyone wanted
In truth, it wasn't everyone and private ownership with more marketing effort doesn't necessarily lock in with an arms race (which could still pay off and could be argued was already happening).

I can remember arguing for more teams playing smaller venues (the Fraser Neill plan for lack of a better term) rather than consolidation of power teams. Pretty sure you were on the other side of that argument, at least at times.

Reply #584835 | Report this post


Do you think those two quotes of mine contradict each other?

Reply #584837 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

If they don't, one of them is incorrect. First one is a silly statement to make on two fronts: "everyone" and conflating the prospect of a risky arms race with private ownership of a league.

I also don't think the budget is primarily dictated by the hand that feeds Boti. In Adelaide, for example, there'd be owners and GM controlling that while the hand mostly feeding Boti is likely Wright. Probably similar in Wollongong.

Gunning for agents seems off to me. They're acting, ultimately, for their client. Owners and GMs should be more in the sights.

Reply #584839 | Report this post


No, my issue with the Fraser model was that it was being suggested at a time when the focus was sustainable growth, not stopping everything to suit a few poorer teams who had been given a few opportunities already. At some point, we had to move on from meeting the demands of the poorer clubs. It had nothing to do with power clubs - it was about trying not to remain stagnant and clubs doing the right/simple things to encourage fans to attend (eg Sixers poor social media from a season or two ago)

My issue with this scenario is that its gone too far the other way, far too quickly, and its history repeating itself. I like the "build it and they will come" mentality but this is a bridge too far. I'm angling for meeting halfway, if you like.



Reply #584842 | Report this post


Everyone...many people...a strong majority...however you want me to say it, there was almost no talk of the risks of the LK plan done by anyone. Conflict of interest didn't even get a mention by the most critical of people.

You don't think that the arms race wasn't inevitable when United were already a key participant 12 months ago?

Reply #584843 | Report this post


AngusH  
Years ago

Again, I think you're overreacting. Wait to see how the rest of FA pans out before getting too concerned, IMO.

Reply #584844 | Report this post


Fair enough, but I have seen it all before.

Reply #584845 | Report this post


Tornado  
Years ago

MACDUB, I wouldn't have the Hawks and 36ers in the same boat as the other 5 teams. This season alone it has been rumoured that Wollongong couldn't afford to keep Lisch & the 36ers supposedly scraped the barrel to retain Randle.

At best you have a 7 team comp which is crap really and of that 7 only 5 can splash money around which essentially means you only have a 5 team comp.

Reply #584846 | Report this post


Mystro  
Years ago

It's been a 2 team comp for some time?

Reply #584849 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

LK has removed himself from the United day to day stuff. No one has ever asked what his day to day stuff with the Bullets is. That's a joke.
Seems that the NBL majority owned by LKG has unbounded spending and who will check on the checkers? Himself.

Reply #584851 | Report this post


PeterJohn  
Years ago

I'm really interested in what the NBL values these apparently highly paid players at, for the purposes of salary cap. If players being paid $200,000 last year are now being paid $300,000, say, what will the NBL decide their deemed salary should now be? If I read the press release on the new rules correctly, that will determine how much luxury tax, if any, clubs will pay.

I also note that the proceeds of the luxury tax only seem to be available to a club if they are struggling to reach the salary floor. I wonder what will happen to any excess left over?

Isaac's point about polarising players' salaries is a good one, as well. If, as posted above, Perth were spending close to $2 million last year, spending that much this year would give them around $1.6 million to spend on their top 6 players (as the bottom 5 are limited to no more than $400,000). So, $500,000 on Ennis, one player at $300,000, a couple at $200,000 and 3 more at $130,000 each and they've spent about what they did last year.

Melbourne may likewise not be spending a lot more than last year, considering the line-up they had bought last season. Brisbane may be operating with a similar mindset and budget. But Brisbane probably would have spent big anyway, given the LK involvement.

I suspect Sydney is the only team that's spending a LOT more than they were last season but so far that's based on one player - Lisch. They may not throw that money at other players.

None of the other 4 teams seem to be splashing the cash. Adelaide may have done so for Randle but, as pointed out above, are unlikely to have big dollars left to spend big on other players. Cairns have half their team (3 of starters) on continuing contracts. Illawarra nd Townsville appear not to have teh money to splash out.

So I'm yet to be convinced there's going to be a massive increase in total salary costs across the league, at the end of this free agency period.

Reply #584855 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

How do we know that the alleged arms race is outside the sustainable resources of the league? A lot of references to "last time this happened we nearly fell over" but are there circumstances regarding the rules the same and/or the ownership financial stability?

Reply #584856 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

If I was a bottom 5 player I would be relishing the chance to have a share of that $400,000 as I would probably be getting 10% of that normally. Another stupid rule to make low end players richer and clubs go broke more quickly.

Reply #584871 | Report this post


Dave  
Years ago

Bottom 5 playes must be UNDER 400k. Doesn't mean they add up to 400k. I'd say they are still at similar levels.

Reply #584874 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Of course. As I said $80k or there abouts is twice what they should be earning.
Pay someone else $120k and someone else 40k. Someone at least in that mix is getting way too much.

Reply #584879 | Report this post


Dave  
Years ago

The 5 players could be earning a combined 200k though? and being paid what they are worth

Reply #584881 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

If you want the young guys coming through to play basketball there has to be some insensitive or there all going to other sports, even ones that went right through the system ie Greenwood. The system is very fair by the looks of it.

Reply #584884 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

SC, I actually remember loads of talk about conflict of interest (just as there was when Marvin was very influential).

"Everyone" wants the same middle-ground of responsible growth/effort that you mentioned, not the potentially risky arms race you tacked 'This is what everyone wanted' onto. I can't remember loads of people saying "I can't wait for teams to spend well beyond their means."

I remember the year Cairns spent $750k on Cattalini, Mee and Black or whoever the third was. The South Dragons and significant signing bonuses. Brisbane's paper bag payments. A big pay day for Wortho one year. Perth's spend on Jawai last year (amongst other signings around the league, no doubt). It's happened for years. Depends how it's done and where the players are moving, perhaps.

I mind less if players move from strong clubs to weaker ones than the other way. Or if a team is financial (e.g., Perth) and bringing in new talent like showcase imports.

If Randle is to be getting $300k (as said once here - no idea if true), it probably deserved a mention. But then, if that's the guy giving Adelaide near-sellouts, maybe it's the smart path to take. And maybe Lisch will bring Sydney wins and get them the crowds.

Loads of subjective talking points, but I definitely take issue with you suggesting that everyone wanted risky spending from clubs.

Reply #584885 | Report this post


Duncan  
Years ago

Anon871 that was the most wtf comment I have read for a while. As stated, of course it means those 5 players can have a combined salary under 400k. But moreso, 400/5= an average salary of 80k. They were on 10% of that? They were on 8k? Times were tough.

Reply #584886 | Report this post


Dave  
Years ago

I think he was referring to being on 10% of the 400k, hence 40k. Still, doesn't really make use of what the rule was put in place for, which was to ensure that there would still be the smaller contracts available for role players, not to overpay anyone.

Reply #584888 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Isn't the minimum wage &40g , you could have three players on 40g = $120 left out your $400,000g that could be devided into two more players so they could get $ 140g each. You have to make it attractive to the younger players or there doing different sport going to college efc.

Reply #584892 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

That was exactly what I meant. Shame Duncan failed maths. The bench sitters might have been on the minimum, now there is every chance they could earn up to double that. Ludictous IMO.

Reply #584894 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

There is every chance they could get double that before. But they don't. There's no requirement that you have to spend $400k on 5 players. I think something similar was floated but didn't eventuate. I'm pretty sure you can spend $200k on 5 players if you want.

A lot of these rules are concessions to the players' association to get the three import rule over the line and I think that's where some of the oddities seem to come into play. If it was purely about what was best for the commercial success of the league, I think things would be different.

Reply #584901 | Report this post


KET  
Years ago

The minimum $400k over 5 players is a decent way of preventing 1 player getting $800k and 9 players sharing $300k in a $1.1mil cap and whatever other less extreme alternatives.

I think though, ideally there should be a minimum wage of say $70k [Roughly slightly above average wage in Oz I think], so 4 players can make up $280k and other player $120k in the most extreme scenario of the $400k being dealt with.

Reply #584906 | Report this post


Duncan  
Years ago

How did I fail Maths? Is 400/5 not 80? Is 10% of 80 not 8? Lol not seeing any failing of Maths here. I see a failure for you to communicate your point, which has been picked up by others. But why are you assuming these minimum salaries will go up? 400k is the supposed to be the ceiling, not the norm. There will still be 9th and 10th men getting that 40-50k. I use Adelaide as a great example of how that is going to work. If we take a guess that they may go for Randle, Johnson, two other cheaper imports and maybe a Madgen/Brandt someone else they can snap up as a quality Aussie, a bench of Creek, Teys, Sobey, Hodgson and another low salary Aussie will be well shy of 400k

Reply #584907 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

So the botton 5 players and now there is an 11th which you have simply ignored.
As mentioned by others the 10% was in reference to the pool of $400,000.
Divide that $400k by 5 manipulate all you want and the benchies will get a massive salary increase.
Worst case scenario is they will earn the min of $40K. You work it out after that.

Reply #584910 | Report this post


koberulz  
Years ago

The minimum $400k over 5 players is a decent way of preventing 1 player getting $800k and 9 players sharing $300k in a $1.1mil cap and whatever other less extreme alternatives.
It's not a minimum, it's a maximum.

Seriously, people.

Reply #584923 | Report this post


Dave  
Years ago

^ What he said

Reply #584932 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

KET, no way should minimum be $70k. If anything, $40k is high. This is for half a year and those players can get paid gigs in the NZ NBL, SEABL, Premier League, etc during the off-season. There should be a bigger disparity between the stars and the scrubs, not smaller.

Anon, why do you keep dividing $400k by 5? It's a maximum. And it's one that didn't exist before. If teams want to spend $200k on 5 minimum salary players, they can. If anything, it's stopping runaway prices for bench players, which is the opposite of what you're suggesting.

Reply #584939 | Report this post


Dave  
Years ago

^ What he said...

Reply #584941 | Report this post




 

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