Alex M
Years ago

Terrance Ferguson - boom or bust?

When he was recruited to the 6ers and NBL, the good word from the basketball community about him was his potential to be a first round lottery pick in the NBA. I don't see it.

However, I'm really struggling to see this potential and worry he had made a massive mistake. After watching him for close to half a season with the Adelaide 36ers, I doubt any NBA club would risk drafting him or he could slide as deep as a late second round pick. Offensively he isn't as strong as he should be and defensively his lock down D could be better. He has a nice jump shot but doesn't penetrate or attack the zone.

I hope he is considering a second season in the NBL as he isn't ready for the NBA.

Brad Newley played in the NBL with the Townsville Crocs as an 18 year old kid and dominated a far greater than Ferguson has been and he was only a late second round pick for Houston Rockets. Then you can add Joe Ingles and he was never drafted and took him 7 years of soild basketball in Europe to be rewarded with an NBA contract.

He needs someone to tell him, stay away from the draft for 12 more months and continue to develop the areas of his game the college system would have.

Do you agree or disagree?


Topic #40515 | Report this topic

Years ago

He's 18. And while not dominating like Newley did, I don't think that matters.

His potential is greater than what newleys was.

Jennings didn't have impressive numbers in his first pro-gig.

It's just as much as the process as it is about the skill. Can he kid be coach. How mature is he in a pro system. How does he deal with adversity etc.

He's not a bust. But he's not the superstar we hyped him up to be.

Reply #614184 | Report this post

Years ago

I think he is too young and it is too early to say at this point but from everything I have seen he is a really good person so good luck to him.

Reply #614185 | Report this post

Years ago

He is going to be good, just not in a 36er singlet. This deal has worked out great for him gaining experience etc but its a dud for the 36ers who could do with a better import.

Reply #614188 | Report this post

Years ago

36er's have beniftted by TF as he has drawn a lot of interest to the side $.

Reply #614192 | Report this post

Alex M  
Years ago

Is he ready to be drafted for the 2017 season?

Reply #614193 | Report this post

Years ago

Matt he has made around $400k, if he makes the NBA the guy paying gets paid. The 36ers won't get much and haven't made much off him.

Reply #614199 | Report this post

Alex M  
Years ago

I think he was implying ticket sales and media exposure - not direct cash from a promoter

Reply #614200 | Report this post

Years ago

And he would be wrong. NO ONE is coming to him, they are coming to see Randle. Please.

Reply #614203 | Report this post

Alex M  
Years ago

Oh you're one of those forum posters who has to be right. All-The-Time. Cool story bro.

Reply #614205 | Report this post

Years ago

It's not wise to look at a bag of flower and predict the loaf of bread it's going to make.

Guys who have had solid 3 years of a solid college career come out here and struggle in their first season, so his performances don't surprise me. He's young in body and basketball IQ, but every now and then you see flashes of his potential.

Worst people have been picked in the top 25. He'd be a development project no doubt, but he has experience as a pro and playing against grown ass dudes.

Given the pathetic way that NCAA athletes get paid, I don't blame him for coming to Australia and earning some cheddar.

So in a broader basketball sense i disagree, but if you based it on how his signing was hyped I somewhat agree (you still have to sell the sizzle, even if the sausage isn't that great).

Reply #614209 | Report this post

Years ago

One thing I like about him is he plays within the system and doesn't fire up too many bad shots. Pretty rare for high profile imports, and pretty impressive considering his age.

Reply #614211 | Report this post

Years ago

Remember he's getting coached and not given minutes, he has to earn them the same as any player in the roster.

If he was given minutes like high school you would see scores to suit. You can see he will light it up quickly and then he doesnt get back on for some time.
D i think he goes OK too. I liked him on Lisch this week. Bigger and quicker.

Reply #614215 | Report this post

Years ago

Agreed Kingpodge

Reply #614221 | Report this post

Years ago

He is going to be good maybe even great. But as a 36er fan wish we had gone with an import that we are getting some reward for this season, not a youngster farm for future talents. What the hell do the 36ers and their fans get out of this really? 6pog and some boards?

Reply #614222 | Report this post

Years ago

I think he's a great fit thus far.

The teams fortunes changed the minute he started getting Teys' minutes.....and it's for a lot more than his 6ppg.

I was very critical of Joey not starting him at the start of the year. He needs his coach to believe in him IMO.

Reply #614227 | Report this post

Years ago

Trade him for Torrey Craig and see what I'm taking about. That's what adelaide should've been looking, a guy who fills the star lines.

Reply #614232 | Report this post

Years ago

He's 6'6-6'7, has a big wingspan can shoot da 3, he's a Reggie Miller/Kevin Durant sort of build and 3-point guy.
And he can dunk, his defence is reasonable. He doesn't offer much on passing/or rebounding, He's made a few a good shot blocks. He's a bit timid, he himself says he's a "skinny guy" and he's found the league so physical. He's just out of High School no need to expect a lot yet, As the God Father Joey Wright said, "Michael Jordan wasn't playing anymore than what TF is at 18".
At the end of the day if TF's future lies in being a Steve Kerr 3-point bomb of the bench for 15-min per game who cares, he'll still be a millionaire.
Steve Blake, a 25-min per guy NBA player made $30mill in his career, free eats take what ya can get.
TF is not going to be better than Michael Jordan or Le Bron sorry peeps.

Reply #614233 | Report this post

Years ago

Matt, your really missing the point here. YES he is most likely going to be a star. Not a bust but a star and make a great career for himself. BUT right now he is a weak option for an Aussie team who is allowed 3 imports. The import as an icon in the nbl is usually the type to really make or break the season. This is a young kid who is very limited at this stage of his development. As a 36er fan, I'm pretty pissed we have taken this project and unique opportunity on. If you traded him, no matter the potential for the next team that he plays for, for a legit already matured import option, the 36ers would be better off. So is he a bust no, to early to tell. Has having him onboard been a bust for the 36ers at 18, yes for a pro team who needs its imports to be solid to make up for some other weak links, yes it's been a poor choice.

Reply #614235 | Report this post

Years ago

Terrance Ferguson is going to be just fine. I think people are forgetting that this kid came straight from high school to the NBL. If you don't think that is a massive leap to take, you obviously think nothing of this league.

He was always going to take his lumps. And anyone with any brains knew he wasn't going to come in here and dominate from the outset. He wouldn't be on top import money, and I think his contract will pay itself off when his name is called in the NBA draft next year, followed by "From the Adelaide 36ers", and suddenly, all of these real prospects want to play for Joey Wright in Adelaide.

Has Terrance Ferguson been boom or bust? He hasn't really been either for me. He has done basically what I expected him to do. He plays hard, makes good decisions, seems to be steadily improving, and has bought into the system. He is doing everything you can ask of someone who is barely even an adult.

Ferguson will get drafted in the first round next year.

Reply #614236 | Report this post

Years ago

He is on huge money. But that's not the point. I'd prefer to have a solid can do import from the get go than play the NCAA game and watch the kid slowly develop. If he were any other import he would've been cut due to lack of production by now. Jared frye ring a bell? Soooo why are people so cool with this kid as an import option? Because the adelaide 36ers name may or may not get called out at some point of the NBA draft? I guess I have different goals for the team and what I wanted to see from the imports this season. As for TF he is doing great for his personal development just wish the 36ers weren't the ginea pig for him to get his game slowly off the ground.

Reply #614237 | Report this post

Years ago

Joey is a flog

Reply #614240 | Report this post

Years ago

With Randle on 300K, Johnson probably on 200+ I really doubt Ferguson is on much. They barely could afford to use the salary cap as it is.

Reply #614241 | Report this post

Years ago

ME, do some homework. He is being paid in other areas, it's conoicated ro understand but the 36ers are off the hook in relation to having to pay him a hefty amount directly. Again that is not the issue. The only issue is I wish another club had gone down this path of bringing in a young guy with potential one day to be a stud. I wish my club had brought in a go to guy for now. If he were an Aussie I'd be saying not a bad pickup, as an import I'm not all that impressed, as believe it or not I'm more interested in my team performing right now, not helping the development of a kid who will be great one day for another team in a potentially higher league.

Reply #614243 | Report this post

Years ago

In terms of the topic's question - too early to know, but taking money while it's there isn't insane. Dante Exum was a known entity probably because he took a different angle, and that got him the money IMO. Now he has a paid trial by fire rather than going unpaid developing in college.

As others have said, Ferguson seems to play within a system and coachability is worth a bit. Has size and can shoot, so that's a start.

He could have floundered in college or suffered a serious injury. This way he gets something now at least.

Whether this was a good decision by the 36ers, that's a different call. Maybe a gamble that didn't pay off as well as expected? Or a way to get a big story on a budget. I agree that as it's played out, the club might've been better served by a reliable contributor, but it's harder to argue that when his side is top. Just as likely that they got a cancer who disrupted the team.

His numbers don't really push for more minutes though.
18 MPG, 6 PPG, 1 RPG, 1 APG. 40% FG, 38% 3P, 60% FT.

Hopefully they are working with him every day to build the intensity of his defence and to find him ways to score through his strengths.

Reply #614245 | Report this post

Alex M  
Years ago

This has nothing to do with demanding more minutes now for the 36ers. Its nothing about the 6ers making the right choice on the import, its about the choices he will make in 9 months time.

This is about Terrance Ferguson and where he will go in the NBA draft. Will he be ready to play in the NBA in 10 months time? On what I see, its a very safe no.

I don't care if he's 18, 19 or 22 years of age. Right now, his skill set have not demonstraghted he can take the next step. Ricky Rubio was dominating the Spanish league as a 18 year old.

He isn't ready to play in the NBA and if selected in the lottery, could cost an NBA team a good player. He is still 3 years away froim being ready.

He should spend 1 more year in Australia and develop his game. Therefore demanding more minutres and then showing his ablity to show and develop his ablity and skills. If not, this exercise will look like a waste of time.

Reply #614253 | Report this post

I don't mind his game. For a kid he's been pretty composed over all. I understand people's frustration that he's taking up an import spot but we're not getting the traditional import numbers from him. I don't think Joey was expecting to. It's more about the potential for upside in a budget import. Not to mention the big picture! It's got the 36ers name in a lot of peoples minds, both here and in the US. It'll open doors in coming seasons for us bringing players in. Maybe other young unproven ones, but also maybe more traditional imports too.
If we weren't winning games there'd be a lot more questions to answer, but it seems that the way we're getting scoring spread across the team (something Randle said was the goal, preseason) is the gameplan we're running with and it's working. And TF's impact minutes, enthusiasm, a couple of threes and some decent defence are a part of that.

Reply #614257 | Report this post

Years ago

The. Oh picture? Go to Australia play 18 minutes a game and not make an impact!? I'll play in the NCAA closer to home as a pup than risk that... can see guys saying this. Dear god I just had a bad thought, what if he returns!? The reason this team is top has so little to do with TF as a player and impact he has had. It's randles team sobey is the import, but imagine how good we would be if TF was even 25% more of an impact guy. Someone that had to be double teamed occasionally or could run an ISO for. The big picture of this la la land idea that the 36ers are going to be a breeding farm for young studs is crazy! The majority of the talent will either do the China thing stay home or play for any nbl team... not like the 36ers own the rights to this amazing idea. Again great for the kid gets paid to develop, not great for the team and it's fans that in any other form would never accept 6 and 1 from an import. I'm really not to concerned about the future career of some up and coming potential guy, I'm more concerned with how my team will be in the playoffs, how my team wins in Perth how they get a ring!

Reply #614258 | Report this post

Years ago

We probably would not have been able to afford that player you just described.

TF has been a calculated risk, and, as most here have been saying, the risk hasn't quite come off but it also hasn't been a complete waste.

Reply #614260 | Report this post

Years ago

You truly don't think a player who averages 10 and 5 in the nbl couldn't have been afforded? No, seriously, I'm asking, because I strongly believe that could've been achieved. And although this project hasn't been a complete waste, the club has allowed the player to get a much better deal out of it than the club and fans. That doesn't really sit all that well with me. But he will be good one day and he will make his money and develop other areas of his game to succeed and for his sake I'm strongly rooting for him... just hard to get excited about him in a 36er jersey.

Reply #614262 | Report this post

Years ago

We couldn't afford it with Jacobsen's import spot what makes you think we could with TF?

Josh Powell at Sydney is averaging 9.8pts for instance, do you think we could afford him? Probably not - and he's a former NBAer.

Reply #614263 | Report this post

Years ago

. They were looking for a cheap option. To be honest combining Jacobsen and TFs salaries for one better player and giving more minutes to some of the kids would've been ideal. But it doesn't matter, I just don't buy the whole we are broke to the point of brining in very basic imports. Is what it is, and there is always going to be a select few that agree with every business decision the club makes and defend it to the death and those that see it disagree and wish for a different result. Thanks god TF was available because by the sounds of it, there is literally no other man on the planet who would classify as an import who would play for the same money and average more than 6 and 1 in 18 minutes. Be in love with the 36ers not the cinderella story of one 18 year old who will be leaving us when that phone rings. But until then, apparently he is the only guy known to man who for the import spot.

Reply #614264 | Report this post

Years ago

I think everyone is missing the point here. The 6ers signed him for two years. He will declare for the NBA draft & the likelihood is he will go top 20 (last I looked ESPN still had him 16th). He has a lot of desirable attributes for NBA clubs.

Why then would we sign him for two years? Because we own high rights on draft night, NBA teams will pay to buy him out. The max they can pay is $625k. Chicken feed to them, but significant to us.

So has it been a success? We'll have to wait until draft night but my guess is it will be.

Reply #614268 | Report this post

I didn't know he'd been signed for two. The things you learn...

Reply #614271 | Report this post

Farrison Hord  
Years ago

TFerg will still be drafted. NBA scouts arent about to burn money constantly sending staff out if they didnt think he was worth a possible investment.

It's proven that a year overseas doesnt generally spurn sensational numbers (see Jennings, Mudiay), thats incredibly wishful thinking they would dominate playing against grown men and higher IQ players off the bat.

No doubt it'll hold them in good stead when they do enter the professional system, because they are already there.

He still has the tools that scouts search for. Height, athleticism, some skill and a great attitude. The rest they can develop in their own time.

I think he's stock may have dropped, but i anticipate he will still go in the mid to late first round.
Then again Exum went #5 on the back of essentially nothing and Maker went top 10 as a gamble. So anything could happen.

Reply #614272 | Report this post

Years ago

That's the first I've heard of Ferguson signing for 2 years so the 36ers will get a buyout payment from an NBA team.

I would want to see that come from somewhere official first because that would be a very shrewd move by the Sixers, too shrewd I suspect.

Reply #614273 | Report this post

Years ago

The big interview with Ferguson & his mother is on NBL TV tonight at 7:30pm EST.

Reply #614274 | Report this post

Years ago

Newley and Ingles were both 19 in their rookie seasons. In fact Newley turned 20 late in the season in February 2005. Ferguson is 18.

A year often makes a huge difference at that age. For example, if you look at Kobe who debuted at 18 and Garnett who debuted at 19, they both made massive improvements every season for their first 3 or 4 years.

So the comparison isn't a good one.

Reply #614276 | Report this post

Years ago

^ me

Reply #614277 | Report this post

Years ago

I never heard his deal to be for 2 years. I don't think the 36ers are that smart to make such a deal. And to be honest his agent would be stupid to make such a deal. Why pay a random Aussie club anything when you have the product the NBA wants to start with? For Terrence this has been boom, exposure life lessons all that, for the 36ers at 6 and 1 it's been bust. So guess if you are keen on the player you will say overall boom but if you are a fan of the team you would be naive to see it as anything but bust. Unlike newely and ingles, in this league he is a coveted import not a low risk 10th man type like some thought the sa boys were going to be.

Reply #614278 | Report this post

Years ago

Have to admit, if the 36ers managed that...what a move

Reply #614279 | Report this post

Years ago

Re Kobe and Garnett, neither started for all of their rookie seasons. KG started 43 games, Kobe started 6.

They both cracked the 20ppg mark in their 4th seasons, Kobe as a 21 year old and KG at 22.

Tracy Mcgrady is another good example. Averaged 7 points a game as an 18 year old, 9ppg as a 19 year old. His breakout season was his 4th year.

The better ones like Lebron, Dwight Howard and Stoudemire were older, turning 19 early in their rookie season and in Stoudemire's case turning 20 a few wks into his career.

Ferguson also has a very wiry body shape which suggests he'll take longer to start handling playing real men.

I'm not saying Ferguson will become a star like those guys, just saying it's far too early to call him a bust. I never expected him to be a star in the NBL.

Reply #614281 | Report this post

Years ago

Something that started out as a valid question about
Terrance rapidly has rapidly become a fairly negative critique of the 36ERS' recruiting.

Am I missing something? Last time I looked the TEAM of which Terrance is part was top of the table and on a seven-game winning streak, with a truck load of up-side in multiple players.

I think Ferguson is a kid, and obviously still quite some way away from NBA standard. Based on what I am seeing I wonder if he will ever make it, though his outside shooting appears to be gradually improving.

But he's part of the team that is currently leading the league, which suggests to me that he and the 36ERS, while not perfect, have got quite a lot right.

Maybe we could enjoy - and appreciate - what has been achieved and is happening and watch the players, the team and the season develop.

Reply #614282 | Report this post

Years ago

18 year old Bodies just haven't matured enough for players to match it with men who are much older and stronger.

Look at AFL footy for more evidence of this.

Players rarely make much of an impact in their first season as an 18 year old. This is why everybody’s going nuts about Bontempelli- because he became a legitimate superstar in his 3rd season as a 20 year old. That’s very unusual.

This is why Ferguson should never have expected to be shooting 15ppg or winning games for the 36ers.

Reply #614283 | Report this post

Wilson Sting  
Years ago

If he's got a two year contract, surely it's got an NBA out clause?

My take on this thread is 'Has his draft stock gone up or down as a result of playing in the NBL.' I would say it has gone down, he's done himself no favours. Exum would've been similar in NBL but was smart enough not to take the gamble, and it resulted in a higher pick then he probably otherwise would have been.

Has the move been boom or bust - I think it's been great for the NBL and 36ers for the exposure. I'm guessing the expectation wasn't that he was going to average 15-20pts a games so in terms of output it's probably no worse than anticipated.

The only loser in this is TF's draft stock, but he's also just made half a million or so while the rest of his class are getting nothing so it probably evens out.

Reply #614286 | Report this post

Years ago

I don't buy the 2 year deal thing as it would be great for the Sixers but why would he and his management agree to it? It just makes him that little bit harder to draft for an NBA team.

Yes, $600k isn't much for an NBA team but if they're weighing up drafting one of T-Ferg and another guy that they think have similar ceilings they're going to draft the guy straight from college that doesn't have the $600k buyout on him.

It would be a very risky move for Ferguson because if he fails to impress in pre-draft workouts that could be a noose around his neck that could possibly even see him fall to the 2nd round and you could pretty much forget an NBA team agreeing to a buyout for a 2nd rounder.

Again I would want to see/hear something from the club or something before considering that legit.

Reply #614290 | Report this post

Years ago

Given that he wasn't really ready to play in the pros, it wouldn't be a bad idea to have one more professional season. He'll still only have just turned 20 at the time of the 2018 draft.

Reply #614291 | Report this post

Years ago

Once again we under rate teh standard of the NBL competiton and over rate the NBA in comparison.
How many players with NBA experinece on their resume have played in the NBL in recent years and how many of those have been dominant?
A few years ago the 36ers had Diamon Simpson who worked out to be an aaverage import in the NBL ( and once everyone worked out he couldn't shoot form more than 1 meter he became almost ineffective) yet he wnet back and was taken into the NBA.
We've had plenty of guys straight out of college come here are get sent home early.
TF is a kid who was hyped up ( by NBL promoters) as someone who would be a star in our league just because one day he is expected to be a good NBA player. I don't know if anyone here really knows the money involved, but I'm guessing 36ers management took a bit of a risk and the payoff may come in future years.

Reply #614292 | Report this post

Was TFerg ever hyped up as being a star in the NBL though? Sure they hyped the fact he's a "future NBA star" to absolute death (and still do). But even as a 36ers fan I don't recall ever being promised a breakout superstar NBL player. It was always the "18 year old straight out of highschool who is going on to big things"

Reply #614293 | Report this post

Years ago

"Once again we under rate teh standard of the NBL competiton and over rate the NBA in comparison."

Absolutely. The NBL and NBA are two very different leagues that have an emphasis on different skill sets and abilities. There are things the NBL does which is on NBA level, but physically players are rarely of the same athleticism, size or strength.

There's still a pretty big difference player for player, but our style of play takes some adapting to and some NBA guys aren't suited to it. Those same guys might have a specific skill that makes them good off the bench in the NBA, but they're rendered useless in the NBL if they're asked to be more versatile here and be the go-to guy.

Reply #614317 | Report this post

Years ago

He's a kid. The NBA is looking just as much at character issues these days as much as potential. In his time here he's been no problem, looks to be a hard worker, plays within the system and isn't a Prima Donna. He could have come in, tried to be the man, pouted when he wasn't getting major minutes and become a cancer. Mid lottery pick, someone like the spurs will dream he slips to them, if not I can see them making a deal ala kawai.
Has anyone looked at guys that have been drafted from Europe lately, most are long lanky players that have great basketball "IQ "from playing in European leagues. With Australians being the flavour of the month it's bound to hold Ferguson in great stead, plus he's had the opportunity to live in a culture similar to home.
Definitely worth the risk, especially if he gets drafted high and develops. Others will look at the same route and who knows, might get the next Kobe here next time and he dominates.
Adelaide is top, the haters have had to jump off the fire Joey bandwagon and now picking on a kid out of high school. Get a life some people.

Reply #614352 | Report this post

Years ago

Does anyone remember in the A League when Adelaide United signed Romario. He was too old and terrible but got Adelaide massive exposure in Brazil and across the world. That opened the flood gates and they signed top quality imports from Brazil for the next 5 years.
I think the full benefit of this experiment will be seen in future years, particularly if TF is successful and is positive about his time here. In the mean time Adelaide are sitting top and he will continue to improve.
I agree he seems to be a good character which again paints a good picture of Adelaide and the NBL.
What if this caused NBA teams to send their draft picks to Adelaide for a few years experience?

Reply #614369 | Report this post

Years ago

Good point TF.

And as a few have said NBA/NBL(FIBA) rules are different and suit different players e.g. look at Steve Blake a pick and roll guy useless in the NBL where pick and rolls aren't valued. Also Blake had trouble gripping the ball, he said the NBA balls are heavier and easier to grip, the NBL balls are lighter and spongy.
NBA and FIBA have different rules and playing style.
TF with his long wingspan and shooting long range is suited to an NBA 3-point line as was Blake who has a very goof 3 point % it's better than Kobe's, remember Blake's 3 vs Melbourne United.

Reply #614382 | Report this post

Camel 31  
Years ago

He starts pretty good . Gets a nice three etc. early.
Think we may have won all the games he started in...

Reply #614398 | Report this post

Years ago

"I think the full benefit of this experiment will be seen in future years, particularly if TF is successful and is positive about his time here."

It might help if loser teammates stop trying to punch on with him at training...

Reply #614399 | Report this post

Years ago

How are pick n rolls not valued in the NBL?

Reply #614401 | Report this post

Years ago

It was a huge gamble by Ferguson and his family to forgo the University of Arizona and veer off the proven path to the NBA. With the NBL season at its halfway point, now seems like a good time to assess whether or not Ferguson's gamble has paid off.

Has Terrance Ferguson’s NBL gamble paid off?

Reply #614627 | Report this post

Years ago

Big write-up on TF in, which is a massive site. Professional scouting breakdown of his time in NBL, with lots of footage.

Also a plug to buy NBL TV if anyone is keen to watch TF's games.

Great marketing for the NBL.

Reply #614949 | Report this post


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