If Martin is back any time soon, I wouldn't rule out Perth making a run. They're two wins off fourth now. If they get the Hawks game, that's a solid start.

I wouldn't call any team a certainty at this point. I think Melbourne are a good chance despite their 9-9 record. Adelaide have two tough games now which could start a slide, but if they get both, that will be remarkable.

Hey Matt i disagree with your top 4 selections.I think Hawks,Adelaide will make it based on Hawks play 7 games at home.Adelaide only have to win another 4 maybe 5 games to make it.I think the other 2 spots will go to either Melbourne,Sydney or Cairns.Melbourne are coming but i don't like how they can't put teams away.Sydney are treading water at moment and there guards have to play big minutes which is starting to have a effect and Cairns have a lot of home games to come.Breakers and Brisbane are the shot ducks with Perth to join them if the Hawks beat them today

Issac, I know you are trying not to be biased towards Adelaide and that is all good and well, but mate, you're team is making the top 4 this season. They are 10 and 6 and on a massive streak.

I cant see them and probably the Hawks not making it from here. This is coming from Perth fan.

United, 36ers are a lock for mine.
Then we have a dogfight for two spots but in order of favouritism:
Perth (found a winning formula and expect them to kick on esp new import.)
Kings (Lisch and Cadee will dictate where they finish).
Brisbane (Gibbo is the key).
Hawks (best team but unless they can get something out of Harris the least talented of above group.)
with Breakers and Cairns out the back door.

Brisbane have ten losses, and won't get either Bairstow or Petrie back this season. I don't see how they're in contention.

At this stage I'd say it's between Sydney and Perth for fourth, with Adelaide, Illawarra and Melbourne highly likely to make it.

The top four will come from Adelaide, Illawarra, Melbourne, Sydney, Perth and Brisbane. I'm making the assumption that teams with a positive win/loss record will make the grade.

Adelaide would need to lose at least 8 games, probably 9 of their last 11 to miss out.
Sydney need to win 4 of their last 7, with three games at home and away games this weekend against Perth, and later against New Zealand.
Illawarra need to win 5 of their last 9.
Melbourne need 6 from 10 games.
Brisbane need 6 from 9, but are likely to struggle without Bairstow and Peach, unless they can find an import big, pronto. They will need him to arrive for one of their next two games.
Perth are the outsiders, here, needing chemistry in a hurry, Damo to be fit, and a big improvement in their ability to win on the road. They need 7 from 11, with 6 games away from home.

New Zealand need 7 from 10, and Cairns need 8 from 11. I can't see either team turning their form around that much.

My prediction for top 4 is Adelaide, Sydney, Melbourne and Illawarra.

Given that I picked Adelaide for the wooden spoon early in the season, though...

New Zealand need 7 from 10, and Cairns need 8 from 11. I can't see either team turning their form around that much.

My prediction for the top 4 is Adelaide, Sydney, elbourne.

Nice analysis Freethrow. Home games are important for Sydney, if they win there last 3 home games I think they will sneak in.
They have 4 away games (Perth/NZ/Adelaide/Bullets) I think they will most likely lose all 4. But if they win there final 3 home games which is likely, they will sneak in.