Two years ago
Last year 09:48 16 Oct 16 (Reply #602238)
re: R2: Adelaide v Melbourne
"Mosquito fleet won't be getting it done this year"
Question 1: which flog wrote this post on hoops?
Question 2: which flog knows how to "copy and paste"?
In all serious though, I probably agreed with you at the time and didn't think the Sixers would get close to achieving the results they have.
Still, I think Melbourne, Perth and Illawarra (and possibly the Breakers depending on where they sit at the end of this round) can take this thing out too.
Two years ago
Firstly, there is a still a lot of ball to play, and things can and do change.
At times last year we thought MU had it in the bag, they didn't even make the GF.
Secondly, you say "only an injury" like its "only a meteorite striking"!?! But injuries happen all the time. And injuries during, or in the run up to finals, have been derailing favourites for as long as the game has been played.
I'd also point out that, in addition to Randle and Sobey, an injury to DJ would completely gut the 6's. And even an injury to say Creek, would be problematic.
If I were forced to place a bet now, obviously Adelaide would be the % choice.
If MU could get their stars healthy and string together a couple of games, they could be very tough to beat.
And I think Perth are still a smokey. Have to wait and see if they improve or plateau as Cotton settles in, and whether McKay continues his trajectory.
Lets not forget the 6's have had the advantage of stability. All their key players have been together since last season. Other teams are still adapting to late inclusions.
Two years ago
I'd be reluctant to call them clear favourites, but top spot will give them home court advantage, and finals series will insulate them from a single horror game. That definitely puts them in a strong position.
Finals are a different game, but hopefully Joey keeps them to their plan. They've barely faltered so far.
Two years ago
They're certainly doing all the right things to earn the title of current favourites, but agree that an injury to the wrong player and it's a different story... Winning has brought out a lot of confidence in the entire playing roster though, so it wouldn't be as bad as at teh start of the season as most players seem to have found their role in the team...
DJ actually playing like he's interested and not allergic to the paint is a huge factor as well...
Again, this is foolish talk.
With the exception of Brisbane now, I think this season is still very much open. Any of the remaining teams can come from no where to challenge anyone at anytime. For instance, Cairns could well be ignited by the addition of a new import and make a run in a similar way NZ have. Either of those two and Sydney can still make the playoffs and seriously challenge Adelaide and Illawarra if they do manage to maintain their current ladder position. I wouldn't be surprised for instance if it was a NZ-Cairns grand final. I don't think it will be, but it just goes to show how tight and unpredictable this league is.
Perth and Melbourne are the most dangerous though. Both have had disruptions this season and both can trouble Adelaide by taking them out of their comfort zone. Melbourne can especially trouble Adelaide at the defensive end and they seem to just torch us from the perimeter almost every time. Adelaide need to stick to their guns when this happens though.
So far they've overcome all challenges that many thought would eventually halt their momentum. We're in with a chance and it's exciting, but it would be unwise to call anyone favourites in my book.
Matchups play a huge role. I feel very comfortable about the prospect of United playing 36ers in the playoffs, given how the four games during the season have played out.
It doesn't really matter if the 36ers are 16-8 or 22-2, what will matter in the semi finals is how they match up against that opponent.
Ware has had the better of Randle twice, and United have generally looked the better team across the four games. So bring it on.
(And note, Ware shot 5-19 and had 12 points last time, while Randle had 19 points and 8 assists. But Randle got most of his points in the last quarter when the match was already over and when Ware was sitting. So perhaps it isn't fair to say Ware got the better of him, maybe call that one even. That game is probably of questionable value anyway since with half of United's team out, Ware needed to do it all on his own, and got more attention hence the 5-19.
But Ware definitely got the better of him the week before when both teams were pretty much at full strengh).
I wouldn't say United have looked the better team across four games, given it's 2-2, but Melbourne have certainly showed they can outplay them in either venue.
I think as much as match-ups it's going to come down to who can find form at the right time and which coaches have the best aces up their sleeve that the oppo hasn't seen yet.
An injury to a good player on any team causes problems in such a tight league.
It's a fairly easy equation - clear 1st place team at the moment with 13 wins out of 14 matches and have smashed sides and won the close ones both home and away with a highly probable MVP and MIP - on this day, 20 January the 36ers are favourites.
That doesn't discount a strong United, a plucky Hawks, a resurgent Breakers, a vengeful Wildcats or even a Kings and an import refreshed Taipans.
Favourite could very well change between now and the end of the season. I'd say to claim first place, the 36ers need to be 18-10 with the Hawks losing one more game.
Paul I think you have to give more weighting to the recent two games.
In fairness to the 36ers, the first two occurred before they really got going. (Although, one was close throughout, United shot a horrible 8-38 from 3 and missed a lot of open shots and 36ers won a close one. The next match United looked comfortably better until a 5 minute period when 36ers nearly stole it. So I would say United got the better of those two games, but am happy to ignore them in fairness to the 36ers).
Also, the Ware/Jackson change also means the two most recent matchups are more important when looking ahead to the playoffs.
So, giving more weight to the last two games:
- United destroyed them at The Cage by 31 points.One of the most dominant 4 quarter performances I've seen in any game this season from any team. United won every quarter by at least 6 points. That in itself is unbelievably rare in basketball. Reportedly Sobey was suffering an illness but played through it, and 36ers were otherwise at full strength.
- Return matchup: 36ers won in Adelaide by 27. United was missing CG43, Blanchfield, Moore, Andersen. United led halfway through the third quarter, before 36ers took a 6 point lead at 3qt and then blew it out in the last.
So basically, United annihilated them in one of the most dominant games you're likely to see all season. Then drew even for 2.5 quarters the next week in Adelaide, despite missing three starters and a key guy off the bench.
My guess is Joey Wright is secretly hoping they don't get United.
Two years ago
The 36er's are having a great run at the moment, its all clicking and we have been luckily injury free whilst on this run (Massive plus!)
If other can get fit its not day light with the injuries to key guys other teams have had...remember how bad we where when Creek & DJ went down!
At this stage the 36er's are the fave's but lets not crow early as a match up with a fit MU or Perth is potentially very dangerous match up esp if gyus like Goulding/Prather are fit/firing!
"Although, one was close throughout, United shot a horrible 8-38 from 3 and missed a lot of open shots and 36ers won a close one. The next match United looked comfortably better until a 5 minute period when 36ers nearly stole it."
I love your selective memory. Adelaide led by 15 at 3/4 time in the R1 clash before Melbourne added some respectability to the scoreboard. The R2 game was somewhat of a mirror image.
Melbourne then got Adelaide coming off a long break and having a shocker, before the 36ers got them back when they had injuries.
There is nothing definitive about that season series at all. I think it would make a great SF series, Melbourne are Illawarra probably being the two teams that can beat Adelaide at their own game.
LV, i'm not saying we shouldn't view Melbourne as a precarious matchup for Adelaide because they are indeed talented, in form and Ware is a strong counter for Randle - however I think you've actually argued that so far there isn't much insight to be gained from the series. If I used your argument of discounting matches when they are not playing reflective of the way they actually play - which has its merits - i'd say you couldn't pick one team over the other.
First match Melbourne shot 8-38, they are unlikely to shoot that badly again regardless of good defence. Strike that out.
Second match was closer but it was in a period where the 36ers were 3-6, not 13-1 and Melbourne weren't the same squad they are now (including Ware). Hard to gain insight from that.
You strike out the third match for same reasons as the first for Melbourne - 36ers started the game shooting terribly and from there that was that - it was just a bad game where you don't play well. It wasn't even close, Adelaide didn't play "true to their form". It wouldn't be smart to assume Adelaide would play that badly in the finals in the same way it wouldn't be smart to assume Melbourne would shoot 8-38 in the finals.
The final game for obvious reasons isn't very helpful as I don't see Adelaide playing against such a depleted Melbourne again.
Two years ago
LV Sixers got smashed by Hawks and NZ so perhaps they feel comfortable about playing the Sixers as well..... or maybe not.
Sixers could play Melbourne in Melbourne another 100 games and Melbourne would not get close to a win like that. That was just a freak game. Randle held his own but had no one helping. Ware and Goulding hit freaky long 3's I don't see that happening again.
Last game you mention was pretty irrelevant due to Melbourne's injuries HOWEVER a big thing to come out of that game is Sixers now know how to guard Ware. If that same strategy works in playoffs it will render him pretty average (He will now come back and score 50 on them since I have said this).
Also Melbourne look better without Anderson. He will be back and will be a big black hole in offense, his defense is average and he takes minutes away from Wesley (who usually kills the Sixers). Your coach is also rubbish. I wouldn't be that comfortable if I was you.
Joey would prefer not to get Melbourne in the first round due to their talent but I think he and the players will feel confident about beating them. Not saying that will happen but they won't fear anyone but at the same time will be realistic by knowing anyone can beat anyone.
It is still anyones Championship.
Two years ago
LV - I don't think Melbourne holds any specific fears for the Sixers.
The two games you wish to rely on - the first had Sobey playing only 15 minutes and shooting 1-8 from the field. Randle was the only player who had a good game at all (21 points at 65%, 7 assists), sure Ware was good but not exactly the smashing you are suggesting.
The second game Melbourne were just trash. The Sixers played down to Melbourne's level for 2.5 quarters and then blew them off the court. It was a 2 point game with 2 minutes left in the 3rd, and then the Sixers went on a 39-14 run. The only more comprehensive and demoralising thrashing I have seen is last night's game which was over after 2 minutes.
Yes, Melbourne was a shell of a team. You noted that United was missing CG43, Blanchfield, Moore, Andersen. Last I checked, Anderson isn't coming back and neither is Moore.
My point is that I am not sure that you can have any takeaways from either game, both of which are uncompetitive and uncharacteristic blowouts. Would be a totally new ballgame for both teams if they met up in the finals.
I would far prefer to play Melbourne than Perth. Goulding struggles with the attention he gets at Adelaide Arena, and Ware had the same problem when the crowd's attention shifted to him in the last game. He got totally distracted into a one on one battle with Randle to the detriment of his team.
Two years ago
I see Illawarra as a bigger threat to us than Melbourne, the Hawks have had two convincing wins against us and I think they lied down a bit in the last game against us. The final game coming up against the Hawks there will be interesting, the battle of the only two teams with winning records this season.
Paul, I think the scoring graph will show that United had more control down the stretch of the repeat matchup than the 36ers did in Melbourne. You mention a 15 point lead, but United had a much bigger lead than that in Adelaide at one stage. They had a huge lead from before halftime right into the last. Besides, there isn't much likely repeatability of United shooting 8-38 again, especially with Casper stretching defenses out well past the 3 point line, drawing double teams and creating open shots for others.
We will see. I was worried about a NZ matchup last season, despite United being "favourites" and unfortunately my worries turned out to be well founded. But now the shoe is on the other foot this season- Adelaide are the top team, but the lower ranked United matches up well, and is more experienced.
You say Illawarra and Melbourne are two teams who can beat the 36ers at their own game. I agree. And both teams appear likely to be joining the 36ers in the top 4. Just another reason why I don’t believe Adelaide deserve to be clear favourites, despite their impressive record.
@ XY, Andersen is coming back, Kromah replaced Moore.
So if United plays Adelaide in the semi finals, they will have 4 players they didnt have last time: Andersen, Kromah, Blanchfield and...Goulding.
Goulding's worth was shown in United's matchup vs Cairns last week. He was dominating, United had a 15 point lead as he limped off the court after falling awkwardly hitting a fadeaway three. With him off court, the lead evaporated to 3 points. He came back on, United steadied.
When has been at full strength or close to it, they have been formidable this season. When they've had multiple injuries at once, they've really struggled. Goulding and Ware are the two biggest individual keys to the team- with those two, United has been a totally different team.
LV you started with a view and then you cherry picked the data to fit your view - in the process you were inconsistent at what you strike out and what you keep. I don't really know why you bother, there's no credibility in that whatsoever (as the previous posters pointed out).
You'd just be better saying "my team has a lot of talent and I think we could challenge Adelaide" to which I think most agree.
You say "clear favourites" but you'd have to agree Adelaide are "favourites" - I don't think anyone is "clear" in such a tight league.
1. I didn't cherry pick anything. I made a few observations. Take what you want from them. It's a fairly simple statement that we shouldn't read anything into a game where Melbourne were literally missing more than half of their starting 5, plus a key bench player. If you think that's cherry picking, then I give up, I'll pack my bags and quit this forum forever (to the joy of some, no doubt).
2. Whether you or I like it or not, Adelaide *are* the clear favourites with the bookies right now. Go look it up (eg: $3.40 with Sportsbet, Hawks next at $4.20. $3.00 with TAB, Hawks next at $4.00). I'm saying I don't agree that's an accurate assessment of the picture. Sounds like you don't either.
And KET, I think you are smart enough to understand the point of my first dot point before, when I say "don't read into", what I mean is, don't read anything into the actual result. NBecause the actual result is worse than expected for the 36ers, despite the 36ers winning by 27. I expected the 36ers to be up by 20 at the half and game over by 3qt. In actual fact, it was game on and very close until the last quarter.
"You say "clear favourites" but you'd have to agree Adelaide are "favourites" - I don't think anyone is "clear" in such a tight league."
Right now, If I'm betting (and I'm not, as I've already made $ this season and I'm happy with that) I'm betting on Perth. And United.
LV not only are you cherry picking, you're not reading properly.
I agree you don't read anything into a game where Melbourne were depleted - I don't know why you think I said otherwise when I clearly stated this? Be honest, did you actually read what was said or what you wanted to read?
Although now you're saying we do read into to the extent Adelaide didn't win by enough by your standard.
I disagree, 27 points is enough - Adelaide didn't have their heart in it for three quarters, that can happen against a depleted opposition. But then they absolutely annihilated Melbourne in the last quarter.
The cherry picking aspect was when you gave credence to Melbourne smashing Adelaide for what was clearly just a bad game for Adelaide immediately after saying Melbourne being beaten shouldn't count because they had a bad game shooting 8-38.
Consistency would dictate that neither game provides much insight.
I don't really care what the odds say.
I'd say Adelaide are favourites but wouldn't that just give good value for putting some dough on the other sides?
[The cherry picking aspect was when you gave credence to Melbourne smashing Adelaide for what was clearly just a bad game for Adelaide immediately after saying Melbourne being beaten shouldn't count because they had a bad game shooting 8-38.]
The smashing is more likely to be suggestive of something *structural* in the matchup itself.
The shooting is one particular part of the game which, as anyone who plays or watches the game knows, comes and goes. I'm not saying it doesn't count, Melbourne should have been smart enough to go towards a plan B (poor coaching). Just not likely to be repeated.
Now, while it's true that Melbourne shouldn't repeat a 31 point win over the 36ers either, the question is whether something structural from that game can be gleaned, which impacts future matches between the teams? I would need to have a closer rewatch to answer, but it's a fair question nonetheless.
I'm not exactly sure if i started this from my earlier post where i suggested Melbourne would be dangerous but the point i was trying to make is that any team that finds themselves in the playoffs will fancy there chances. But it's my opinion that Perth and Melbourne would be the two teams most likely to ask serious questions of Adelaide when it comes down it.
I don't think it's going to really matter what happened during the season if Adelaide and Melbourne were to meet in the semis. They've had a bit of an odd season series. In the recent away loss to Melbourne, i don't think Adelaide really showed up to play and got a good old fashion home kicking. The more recent home game was a typical danger game where the undermanned away team just wouldn't go away but Adelaide just had to go up a gear to make sure they sealed it. The season series and the situations around each game were secondary in my simple point that Melbourne are capable and dangerous to the so far overachieving Adelaide and Illawarra regardless of recent history.
I think Illawarra are the team that gives Adelaide the most issues. The 36ers smacked them on a horrible day for Beveridge with a death in his family, but I wouldn't read too much into that game.
I'm really looking forward to the final game of that series. In reality though, there haven't been many season series where one team has dominated this year.
If it ends up Adelaide, Illawarra, Perth and Melbourne in the playoffs, I think the only series that's a sweep to this point is Perth v Melbourne.
Adelaide v Melbourne 2-2
Adelaide v Perth 3-1
Illawarra v Adelaide 2-1
Illawarra v Melbourne 2-1
Perth v Melbourne 2-0
Perth v Illawarra 2-2
That's all pretty tight. Looking at that, Melbourne are probably going to have to be perfect against Illawarra and Perth if they are any chance of getting top two.
the question is whether something structural from that game can be gleaned, which impacts future matches between the teams?
I would describe Adelaide's game as 'uncharacteristic' which means it's tough to glean how they actually play when they aren't playing properly. I never viewed the loss as a structural issue to be honest - Adelaide missed plenty of shots they should have scored at the start of the game - and it wasn't due to overwhelmingly good defence. When you don't score and you're not doing the things you usually do, suddenly everything breaks down you don't make space you don't create opportunities and you're forced to rush back on defence. From that, Melbourne took momentum and control and the game was over. A classic bad game really.
You can look at the way Adelaide plays and the way Melbourne plays and identify how Melbourne's gamestyle or players or structure could become a thorn - and I would agree, I wouldn't want the 36ers to face Melbourne. My point is, I just don't think the games we've had in the series can give us much to glean - unfortunately.
Any team that finds themselves in the playoffs will fancy there chances. But it's my opinion that Perth and Melbourne would be the two teams most likely to ask serious questions of Adelaide when it comes down it.
I completely agree - I think whomever makes up the top 4 can beat each other and ought to fancy their chances.
3 v 4 playing in the Grand Final would not surprise me in the slightest.
IMO Adelaide right now are playing at close to if not at their peak potential for the season, I can't really see them improving much more at all this season.
United/Perth are still probably only at around 70% of their potential right now imo as they deal with new players coming in still and players returning from injury. Other than the start of the season the 36ers have had a very good run with injuries and maintaining the same roster for the bulk of the season. This has allowed them plenty of time to gel together, build chemistry, work out their team plans and get used to their individual roles.
Remember how quick Adelaide's turn around was? One week there were multiple threads on here about how bad they were, how Joey needs to be sacked and they'll finish last. 3 weeks later threads popping up on how they are legit contenders.
Perth/Melbourne matching up against Adelaide right now could still give them a run for their money, but Adelaide is ahead of them right now. Still plenty of time for these teams to get it together, just like Adelaide did and potentially be better.
Right now IMO Adelaide faves, Perth/Melbourne right behind them if they get it together, then the Hawks.
How amazing is it that we see 7 of the 8 sides as legitimate title contenders? Whether it's the inform 36ers, resurgent Wildcats, stacked United, late to the party Breakers, never-count-out Hawks etc.
Most of us don't have the guts to genuinely rule out Cairns or Sydney either.
Great stuff for the league, I just hope they're using this narrative to get reach into the mainstream consciousness because we are unlikely to see something like this again for a long time - if ever.
Two years ago
Isn't Adelaide pretty much the only side that has been close to 100% healthy for the past few weeks?
Certainly since Creek has come back the side has really gained in confidence and form, so while they are traveling very well right now, I an not going to jump on them just yet!
This season has proven that anything is possible...
"I thought Perth was the only side who could beat the 6ers but after watching the 6ers come from 16 down in Perth, honestly I cant see anyone beating them over a 3 game series especially with home court advantage."
I thought differently after that game, Perth managed to get a 16 point lead, so to me I thought 36ers are definitely beatable if you can string together a good 4 quarter performance and not play shit for the rest of the game
It's becoming very generic:
Any team can win it, 36ers are beatable if a team plays well for 4 quarters, teams can play better not injured
A better question is, without all the obvious qualifications, if you were to back one team to win it all this year - who do you pick?
I really want to say Adelaide or Illawarra, but my pick would be Melbourne.
[A better question is, without all the obvious qualifications, if you were to back one team to win it all this year - who do you pick?]
I'll say whoever finishes higher on the ladder out of Melbourne and Perth.
Right now, Melbourne has a better record than Perth, and should beat a depleted Brisbane tomorrow. So I'll pick Melbourne. But it'll depend on the two matchups between them.
Two years ago
Melbourne have the best chance if they can get/stay healthy. Perth are too reliant on Prather to be able to take out the whole thing.
Adelaide look a lot like they're going to win it all, right now, though. I still think they would be very fragile without Randle. An injury to Sobey would be bad for them, as would an injury to DJ (perhaps more so than Sobey.)
My prediction for the final four is now:
Brisbane rounding out the bottom of the table.
I really hope the Snakes can make a run with their new import, (someone must have gone behind Fearny's back, to sign a scorer, the cheeky bastard!) however I think it's a big stretch for them to finish anywhere higher than fifth, and it's more likely they'll be sixth or seventh.
Two years ago
I really hope the Snakes can make a run with their new import, (someone must have gone behind Fearny's back, to sign a scorer, the cheeky bastard!)
That's what I thought too will be interesting to see if Fearne allows him to have a prominent offensive role or if he buries him in his system much like Edwin was and just about everyone else is.
Two years ago
"At times last year we thought MU had it in the bag."Yep, plenty thought that. Same type of people who earlier thought it was Sydney, and now claiming Adelaide.
I'm not sure many thought that.
When you've been watching for 30 years, you learn your lesson. I STILL remember 1993. Being the best team in the comp, and finishing on top, doesn't guarantee you squat.
When did I think Perth had it in the bag last year? About 3/4 time in game 3 of the GF.
Two years ago
will be interesting to see if Fearne allows him to have a prominent offensive role or if he buries him in his system much like Edwin was and just about everyone else is
I'm guessing it will depend on whether Fearne likes him or not. One thing I've noticed with his system rigidity is that it doesn't seem to apply to a select few. You'll see Trice waste valuable seconds shaking and baking then put up a bad shot, Wortho pulling bonehead plays, or Jawai having butter fingers, yet these guys won't get yanked off the court.
Most of us don't have the guts to genuinely rule out Cairns or Sydney either.
Yep you're about right KET. Both these teams showed what they can do earlier this season if their coaches can give them the right strategy and their players healthy, confident and committed to playing both ends of the floor.
Sydney's case is probably the most perplexing since on paper this team has the personnel to win it all. Gaze's coaching style and lack of experience bear the brunt of the blame for the mess they're in at the moment, but all the players seem committed to his system and looks to have the best off-court team chemistry in the NBL. You just wonder if they will ever manage to click this late in the season.
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