Advertising spot currently available.
Minimum three month period (1.5+ million page views, 92% Australian).
Email [email protected] for rates and options.

Dunk Basketball Uniforms

AD: Office space available in Adelaide CBD @ 313 Halifax St;
Suit creatives; freelance desks or space for 2-4 person business. More info

Dazz
Earlier this year

#40804

The FINAL Round

The final round is just epic, because practically every game will have some bearing on the final table.

What's more, there’s nothing simple. One game can change a lot of things.
As just one example, Sydney look out of it, but if they can beat Perth, 14 wins will rocket them to the head of a likely mini-table,
Plus they already have won the splits against Cairns, Hawks, NZ, and can take the Perth spilt with a 9 point victory.

CAIRNS v ADELAIDE x 2
Adelaide have nothing to play for, except maybe messing with other teams.
Cairns need to win both to be certain of a spot. It would give them 15 wins and 2nd spot with the split over the Hawks.
One win would see them on 14 points, and possibly still get them in via a mini-table.

NZ v MU
This is a DO or DIE game for BOTH teams.
NZ MUST win to finish on 14 and force their way into a mini-table or split. They still won’t know for sure, but if they lose, its season over.
MU MUST also win. They need to win both games to finish on 15 and guarantee a spot. I4 wins will not do it for them.
This game also has a HUGE potential impact on other teams.

PERTH v SYDNEY
Another DO or DIE clash.
Sydney must win to finish on 14. They will then be well placed in the resulting mini-table.
Perth must also win. They need to win both games to guarantee a spot. Moreover, beating Sydney pushes them out of any mini-table scenario.
If these two games go the way I think, it COULD see the final 4 decided. The likely outcome being a 14 win mini-table, and barring any blow outs, Perth to get through on %

HAWKS v BRISBANE
This should be a forgone conclusion. Hawks playing for their lives, Brissy just wanting it to be over.
Hawks to finish on 15 wins, guaranteeing a finals spot. (But could be anywhere from 2nd to 4th, depending on Cairns and Perth.)

MU v PERTH.
I’m hoping that by this point, the 4 is set. MU have no chance, and Perth just need to keep it respectable to avoid dropping below NZ in a mini-table.
But if things go wrong, it could get messy, and we could be waiting on this result to finalize the 4.

Report this topic


 

ROFLcopter
Earlier this year
22:15 6 Feb 17

Reply #623091

re: The FINAL Round

Hopefully it's not as you want it Dazz and we are waiting for Yernited v Perth.

This season deserves a final minute drama.


Report this post



Dazz
Earlier this year
22:37 6 Feb 17

Reply #623098

re: The FINAL Round

By the end of Friday night, we could have a very clear picture, or still a very murky one. :-)


Report this post



Train
Earlier this year
22:50 6 Feb 17

Reply #623103

re: The FINAL Round

Finals start this week as far as I'm concerned. Pretty much every game is an elimination final.

Cairns season is on the line and 36ers will be desperate to get some form
Going into the finals. No team wants to be going 1 of 4 or 2 of 4 goin into the finals. I think this could go the split with home teams winning their respective matches.

Sydney with one game to play and they have to win this one but at the Arena Perth should and must win this one.

United have a tough run, Played Monday then have a Fri in NZ and the home to Perth. On current form they should beat NZ but do they have the legs to beat Perth after such a tight schedule? This is probably the biggest match of the round.

Hawks should knock of Bullets but nobody wants to play a team with nothing to lose and everything to prove. After dropping the game against United this is a gave Hawks can't and should t lose.


Report this post



LV
Earlier this year
22:51 6 Feb 17

Reply #623105

re: The FINAL Round

So many possibilities remain.

I'm tempted to say how I believe it will play out, but I'm too scared to do so ;-)

It's still possible to have 5 teams finish on 14 wins (I don't think 6 is possible?) It would rely on Bris beating Illawarra in Illawarra though, so that's unlikely. But having 4 teams on 14 wins isn't so unlikely at all.

Can't wait.


Report this post



Train
Earlier this year
23:00 6 Feb 17

Reply #623109

re: The FINAL Round

Haha but we love your daylight predictions LV ;) jk
But seriously I don't think anyone would of predicted how close it was going to be.


Report this post



Em
Earlier this year
23:08 6 Feb 17

Reply #623111

re: The FINAL Round

Melbourne's big game is vs NZ - win this and they most likely will make finals, lose it and I think they will be out.


Report this post



LV
Earlier this year
23:38 6 Feb 17

Reply #623117

re: The FINAL Round

If United lose to NZ then their best result is 14 wins, by beating Perth on Sunday.

But if Perth then lost to Sydney on Friday then United might still have a chance? Since United own a 3-1 split vs Sydney (who would be on 14 as well) and a 3-1 split vs Cairns who will be on 14 if they beat 36ers one out of two.

If Cairns, Sydney, United and NZ all ended up on 14 in that scenario, who takes the two spots? United would have a 6-6 record in that mini pool. NZ would have a 5-7 record. Cairns would be 6-6. Sydney would finish in 3rd position because they would be 7-5. (3-1 vs Cairns, 3-1 vs NZ, 1-3 vs Mel).

Would it then defer to the Melbourne and Cairns split? If so then United makes it.

So. If United loses to NZ then they probably need Sydney to beat Perth to keep their hopes alive? I suspect if United loses to NZ and Perth beat Sydney then it would be very very unlikely for United to make it. (Maybe possible under some scenarios tho?)


Report this post



LV
Earlier this year
23:42 6 Feb 17

Reply #623118

re: The FINAL Round

United's best scenario is winning both, and then Cairns beating Adelaide twice. In that event, a 15 win mini pool arises out of Ill/Cairns/Mel (if Ill beat Bris), or if Bris beat Ill then it's between Cairns/Mel on 15 wins.

Either way United would finish second.

If United wins both games but Cairns don't, then United will finish third.


Report this post



LV
Earlier this year
23:48 6 Feb 17

Reply #623119

re: The FINAL Round

Sorry, if United wins both but Cairns don't, then United will finish third...UNLESS Illawarra loses to Brisbane. In which case United would get second.

So many possibilities. It would be cool if Syd beats Perth, United beats Perth after losing to NZ, Cairns wins one vs Adelaide and Bris causes the boil over vs Illawarra.

That would leave United, NZ. Cairns, Illawarra and Sydney all on 14 wins and battling for positions 2-4. 3 teams would make it and two would miss out.

I'll leave someone else to work out that mini pool :-)

Of course if Perth beat Sydney instead bit those other results remained then the 5 team mini pool for 2nd-4th would be United, NZ, Illawarra, Cairns and Perth.

So many possible mini pools. Maths nerds and bet geeks will be going berserk this week!


Report this post



Ingles13
Earlier this year
02:25 7 Feb 17

Reply #623130

re: The FINAL Round

Wheres the best place to find splits for the season? Trying to calculate what the ladder will be based on likely results.


Report this post



Ingles13
Earlier this year
02:31 7 Feb 17

Reply #623133

re: The FINAL Round

Assuming Cairns split this week with Adelaide.
New Zealand beat Melbourne at home
Perth take care of Sydney and eliminate them
Illawarra handle brisbane
Then MElbourne beat Perth at home

Adelaide 18-10
Illawarra 15-13

Melbourne 14-14
Perth 14-14
NZ 14-14
Cairns 14-14

Syndey 13-14
Brisbane 10-18

Who advances in a mini series out of Melb, Perth, NZ and Cairns. Alternately if Cairns is removed (2-0 or 0-2), who advances out of Melb, Perth, NZ.

Where to find the splits without going through every
round by yourself


Report this post



LV
Earlier this year
07:28 7 Feb 17

Reply #623137

re: The FINAL Round

In that mini pool Cairns would be 7-5. Mel would be 5-7. NZ and Per both 6-6.

Does it then defer to NZ vs Per split? If so NZ goes through.

Cairns beat NZ 4-0
Mel beat Cairns 3-1
Cairns Per 2-2
NZ 3-1 over Mel
NZ 3-1 over Per


Report this post



Em
Earlier this year
07:37 7 Feb 17

Reply #623138

re: The FINAL Round

You left out melb v Perth


Report this post



LV
Earlier this year
07:52 7 Feb 17

Reply #623139

re: The FINAL Round

That's 3-1 Per but my mini pool above is correct


Report this post



skip
Earlier this year
08:05 7 Feb 17

Reply #623140

re: The FINAL Round

Question for those that have studied the final round closely...

Is it possible that the United v Wildcats game becomes a knock out game for both teams with only the winner going through to next week?


Report this post



LV
Earlier this year
08:23 7 Feb 17

Reply #623141

re: The FINAL Round

Skip, short answer: Yes.

If Mel wins and Perth loses on Friday, Cairns beats Adelaide twice and Illawarra beats Brisbane....

Ade, Cairns and Illawarra will have made it on at least 15 wins each.

4th would then be between Perth, Mel and Syd. Syd would be on 14 wins. Melbourne if beat Per would go to 15 and make it. Per if beats Mel would go to 14 wins and win mini pool between Mel, Syd and Per.

However....a more likely scenario: If Cairns won 1 of 2 vs Ade but the other above results remained...

If Mel wins vs Perth:

Mel - 3rd, 15 wins.
Syd-4th. Wins mini pool vs Cairns and Per (3-1 vs Cairns, 2-2 vs Per).

If Per win vs Melbourne:

Per 3rd
Mel 4th

create a 14 win mini pool between Per, Mel, Cairbs and Syd

In which case....Per would get 3rd and Melbourne 4th

Per 8-4 (4-0 vs Mel, 2-2 vs Syd, 2-2 vs Cairns)
Cairns 4-8 (2-2 vs Per. 1-3 vs Mel, 1-3 vs Std)

Mel and Syd would be 6-6 and Mel gets 4th as they have split over Syd


Report this post



LV
Earlier this year
08:26 7 Feb 17

Reply #623142

re: The FINAL Round

Sorry one mistake there

If Mel won under the second scenario it would because 14 win split between Syd and Cairns, Per would be knocked out with only 13 wins.

But same result- Syd would get 4th as they have split over Cairns


Report this post



LV
Earlier this year
08:35 7 Feb 17

Reply #623143

re: The FINAL Round

Also If Mel and Perth both lose on Fri, there are other scenarios that I don't have time to work out right at this second

Too many possibilities! Think I'll just wait it out and hope Casper and Chris' combined 2-13 outside night means they're due to torch NZ!!


Report this post



paul
Earlier this year
08:37 7 Feb 17

Reply #623145

re: The FINAL Round

I hear NZ are removing the roof at NSEC.


Report this post



Anonymous
Earlier this year
10:38 7 Feb 17

Reply #623167

re: The FINAL Round

LV
Great work and thanks, oh what a magnificent season.


Report this post



Anonymous
Earlier this year
10:45 7 Feb 17

Reply #623168

re: The FINAL Round

Guys, I have programmed an automated tool which gives you all possible outcomes and ladder positions with the click of a button. I am just putting the finishing touches on it and with any luck should have it uploaded by Sunday afternoon. Watch this space!!


Report this post



XY
Earlier this year
11:00 7 Feb 17

Reply #623172

re: The FINAL Round

^^^
Love it.


Report this post



Dazzamaniac
Earlier this year
11:48 7 Feb 17

Reply #623183

re: The FINAL Round

You are the anon we don't deserve!

Dazz - One of your best threads yet. Dazz World Order 4-Life!


Report this post



AKA
Earlier this year
12:52 7 Feb 17

Reply #623204

re: The FINAL Round

I just got a headache reading through this thread. So if Melbourne beat New Zealand and it's a full moon in Illawarra the Cats beat Melbourne but New Zealand lose to Cairns even though they play Adelaide after Brisbane score 50 second half points to split the series with South East Melbourne Magic that means that the Hobart Devils have to play on Wednesday against Townsville who win a mini ladder against Collingwood Magpies who have to win the AFL W against Carlton unless the Lions beat the Demons then we'll have 12 teams on 14 wins. Is that correct?


Report this post



GordonG
Earlier this year
13:07 7 Feb 17

Reply #623207

re: The FINAL Round

AKA - Close, you forgot the meteor shower.

:)


Report this post



paul
Earlier this year
13:41 7 Feb 17

Reply #623214

re: The FINAL Round

And if they're all still tied it will be decided by sackraces on consecutive Sundays.


Report this post



Luuuc
Earlier this year
13:48 7 Feb 17

Reply #623216

re: The FINAL Round

I'd back the Cats this season in any sacking-based competition.


Report this post



Dazz
Earlier this year
15:18 7 Feb 17

Reply #623226

re: The FINAL Round

Wheres the best place to find splits for the season?
http://www.hoops.com.au/forum/40738-the-splits-between-nbl-teams/


Report this post



koberulz
Earlier this year
15:22 7 Feb 17

Reply #623227

re: The FINAL Round

I hear NZ are removing the roof at NSEC.
Melbourne United are undefeated in open-air games, I'm not sure that's a good idea...


Report this post



Anonymous
Earlier this year
15:29 7 Feb 17

Reply #623228

re: The FINAL Round

The scenarios for the Wildcats this weekend:

http://www.wildcats.com.au/perth-wildcats/final-round-scenarios/


Report this post



Dazz
Earlier this year
15:35 7 Feb 17

Reply #623232

re: The FINAL Round

Question for those that have studied the final round closely...

Is it possible that the United v Wildcats game becomes a knock out game for both teams with only the winner going through to next week?


This whole round is a knockout for most teams.
As explained in the OP, Meblbourne probably need to win both games, so yes, if they beat NZ, then the last game becomes a must win for them.
If Perth lose to Sydney, they could still get in by winning the last game, on the basis of a mini-table featuring Perth, Sydney, MU, and possibly Cairns.

BUT what is perhaps most interesting in that scenario, is that if Cairns lose both their games, there would be TWO spots up for grabs, and if the scoring is just right, MU could lose and still sneak in ahead of Sydney.

After Friday night, we'll have a slightly clearer picture.


Report this post



Dazzamaniac
Earlier this year
15:44 7 Feb 17

Reply #623234

re: The FINAL Round

Here is my attempt at graphically showing the Playoff race.

[IMAGE]http://imgur.com/a/sUpIe[/IMAGE]


Report this post



DaAnswer
Earlier this year
17:14 7 Feb 17

Reply #623263

re: The FINAL Round

Official Write Up:

http://www.nbl.com.au/featured-news/will-make-finals-math/


Report this post



Train
Earlier this year
18:45 7 Feb 17

Reply #623286

re: The FINAL Round

Cats have a really good article in their website summarising all the possibilities. It's explains things pretty dam well.

http://www.wildcats.com.au/perth-wildcats/final-round-scenarios/


Report this post





 

Reply to this topic

Name Email

Random name suggestion for anonymous posters: Vesta 36

Title
Rules: You must read the Terms of Use. No spam, no offensive material, no sniping at other clubs, no 'who cares?'-type comments, no naming or bashing under 18 players. Learn how to embed YouTube videos or tweets
Message

Please proof-read your post before submitting as you will not be able to edit it afterwards.
 


Liam Flynn - basketball coaching and consulting

Recent Posts

.

.


An Australian basketball forum covering NBL, WNBL, ABL, Juniors plus NBA, WNBA, NZ, Europe, etc | Forum time is: 5:00 pm, Mon 29 May 2017 | Posts: 655,271 | Last 7 days: 693