Melb Fan
Years ago

WNBL 17/18 Season Predictions

The question was raised by an anonymous poster in the offseason thread and I thought it deserved its own thread with less than a week til the Boomers and Rangers tip off the season.

I'll just copy across my own predictions (plus a few added ones) from that thread.

Top 4 in no particular order- Melbourne, Dandenong, Perth and Townsville.

Melbourne because well their roster looks pretty damn good on paper - whether or not this translates to getting wins is another thing and to be honest I'm concerned about their reliance on Cambage. Its happened on every team she's been on, so they need to have a plan B when she's double or even triple teamed or in foul trouble.

Dandenong because I think their roster is pretty well rounded too, although it could be argued they'll over rely on their starters. I reckon Sara Blicavs will break out and absolutely dominate this year. It'll be interesting to see who will be their go-to PG out of Palau and Lavey.

Perth because I think when they're on, they'll be next to unstoppable with their athleticism and shooting abilities to wear teams down. I really don't think teams can even offer help defence against them because if you leave someone open on their team they'll probably burn you. Question is how they'll gel with quite a few trigger happy players on the roster. IMO they'll probably be the most fun team to watch of all this season. (since writing this Farnworth has been ruled out for most if not all of the season, massive blow for them but I think Whitcomb/Williams/Kunek will be able to step up to cover her absence).

Townsville because well you can never really discount them can you.. Garbin and Aokuso coming off the bench are quite handy, and judging by their preseason games Aokuso is right at home already and is capable of quite a bit. Having Suzy and Cayla back on the one team is a scary proposition for the other sides IMO and will really free up the likes of Murray and Wiese to use their perimeter shooting power.

Yes shock no Sydney, I think they may struggle without Leilani which isn't made much easier with Tupaea being out for most if not all of the season with injury. I'm not confident in how deep their roster is (especially without Tupaea) in comparison to the other teams. I feel the other teams have really stepped up their rosters whereas Sydney haven't - I'd say they'll finish just outside the 4.

I'm not sure how the veteran likes of Snell, Hodges, Hurst, Bass, Gabe & Batkovic (even O'Hea and Jarry could be added to this list with their injury histories) will go with this style of scheduling - a lot of back to back weekends and road trips in such a short span of time may not bode well with their bodies at this point in their career.

I have a feeling the finals series will be between Melbourne and Townsville, but toss a coin who will win it. Could well be some Lynx/Sparks finals series type games IMO.

MVP - Sara Blicavs

All Star 5 - Sara Blicavs, Cambage, Courtney Williams, Batkovic and Whitcomb.

Rookie of the Year - Ezi Magbegor

Champions - Townsville in 3 games

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Townsville-1st
Sydney-2nd
Melbourne-3rd
Dandenong-4th
Canberra-5th
Perth-6th
Bendigo-7th
Adelaide-8th

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Anonymous  
Years ago

MVP-Whitcomb

Defensive player of the year-Griffin

Rookie player of the year-Magbegor

All star 5-
Whitcomb, Blicavs, Griffin, Batkovic, Cambage

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known  
Years ago

This will be the closest season in history. The bottom 5 teams will all have a chance going into the last two weeks of the season. I think only Melbourne is a sure in for finals. If they happen to miss it would be one of the biggest failures on record and maybe time for Guy to go. It's going to be a great WNBL season. Every game will count. #cantwait


Melbourne
Townsville
Bendigo
Adelaide
Sydney
Dandenong
Perth
Canberra


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.  
Years ago

will be an fantastic season - so many close games - i am glad you people can confidently pick a winner - cause i cant. Yes I expect Blicavs also to keep stepping up and become an international level player.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

I think if Blicavs has a great season, the WNBA is a real possibility.

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.  
Years ago

Blicavs has the right sort of game to play wnba for sure

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Allen and George must be on the way out.
Mitchell coming to the end of yer WNBA career.
Talbot no guarantee.

Whitcomb I think has 1 more year.
Cambage and Blicavs look the most likely to go to the WNBA.
Tolo also wants back in.

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Waves2Lynx  
Years ago

Gosh this is so tough I think all teams have a chance of making the finals.

I'll go with:

Townsville - they just look so formidable. Until she shows otherwise you have to back in the multiple-MVP Batkovic to continue starring.
Melbourne - not a Cambage hater. Will back her in and rest of the recruits
Sydney - no Mitchell but defending champs still have most of their core
Adelaide - best offseason recruiting by far I think. If it all gels, watch out
Dandenong - another who recruited well and won't be surprised to see making finals
Perth - loads of potential star power, can't see it clicking consistentally over season. Depth a concern.
Bendigo - Banham and Griffin could go nuts but don't think rest of squad compares to others
Canberra - someone has to finish last, which is so unfair but by PoE I'd have to choose the Caps.

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Anon  
Years ago

Think it's actually anyone chance this season , so many factors to consider, it's a much shorter season , more games in quick succession, some of these veteran players may well struggle come the pointy end of the season. It will also only take an injury to one or two key players to have an impact. Some of the teams have p,aced very young inexperienced players in their ten to save money, but it may end up being a costly move.

Personally can't see either Perth or Melbourne in the final two, even the final four may be a push , think Townsville with Batkovic and George will be a tough combo to beat .
And don't discount adelaide either.
Thevrest will depend on who can last the pace.

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Waves2Lynx  
Years ago

How about who will make All-Star 5? I'll go with:
Cumming-Whitcomb-Griffin-Batkovic-Cambage

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Anonymous  
Years ago

"Dandenong because I think their roster is pretty well rounded too, although it could be argued they'll over rely on their starters. I reckon Sara Blicavs will break out and absolutely dominate this year. It'll be interesting to see who will be their go-to PG out of Palau and Lavey. "

Palau. No question. Unless BA politics get involved. Even at her age she is heaps better than Lavey's best game in her whole career. I can't wait to watch her live.

I'm really keeping my eye on Courtney Williams too. She should light the league up.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Starting 5s imo

Townsville
Cocks, Wiese, Newley, George, Batkovic

Sydney
Ebzery, Wilson, Snell, Taylor, Hamson

Melbourne
Smart, Cole, Ohea, Purcell, Cambage

Dandenong
Palau, Blicavs, Blicavs, Mijovic, Pederson

Bendigo
Banham, Karatiana, Laney, Griffin, Richards

Adelaide
Clydesdale, Seekamp, Novosel, Bishop, Hamblin

Canberra
Hurst, Jarry, Hooper, Bass, Scherf

Perth
Williams, Whitcomb, Kunek, Standish, Dowe

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Anon  
Years ago

^ starting 5's about right I'd say

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Anonymous  
Years ago

I guess you'd have Canberra starting in a zone with that starting 5. That's huge. I'm not sure they would be able to contain other wings if they start that way.

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Melb Fan  
Years ago

Apparently Bendigo were experimenting with Banham - Oliver - Laney - Griffin - Payne as their starting 5 in the pre-season

I'd be very, very surprised if Maddie Garrick didn't start for the Boomers.

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AshT  
Years ago

Yes, Courtney Williams MVP/All-Star prospect but the question is how driven she is coming down from WNBA.

Bendigo should be hoping for better from Richards this season, which could make them a finals chance.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

William Hill championship market

Melbourne $4
Townsville $4.50
Sydney $5
Perth $6
Dandenong $9
Canberra $9
Bendigo $11
Adelaide $13

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Waves2Lynx  
Years ago

Why such bad odds for Adelaide? Their team is absolutely stacked, it's going to be a headache just to get them all minutes.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Bendigo were only "experimenting" with Payne at 5 because Gab had a netball GF the next day, although it was surprising to see Ollie suit up as she was in the opposing (and victorious) side in the GF.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Adelaide are indeed stacked but with guards, that might end up being their down fall, all those guards are going to be wanting big minutes, so managing them may be the issue

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LC  
Years ago

Podcast dropped this morning previewing every team:

The Pick and Pop: 2017-18 WNBL season preview

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Anonymous  
Years ago

The person on the phone seemed to know the league and players very well, the other person ehhhh not so much

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Luuuc  
Years ago

Ok, I'll have a crack. Last season I felt like I had a reasonable handle on things, and other than Townsville disappointing me a bit, it went pretty much as expected.
This season I'm really struggling, because there are literally no weak teams. There is quality everywhere you look, so depth will be a significant factor, but so will cohesion and coaching.

1. Townsville
2. Melbourne
3. Dandenong
4. Sydney
5. Adelaide
6. Perth
7. Canberra
8. Bendigo


Melbourne & Townsville seem like a "clear" top 2 to me, because they're loaded, they have depth, and they also have some real star power. Coach Brassard + stable nucleus is how I separated them in the end.

I'm tipping Rangers to be the best of the rest. They're well coached, they'll be motivated, it looks like they're consciously trying to counter size with mobility & shooting, and they've got a good mix to try and pull it off.

4-8 really feels like a raffle.

Ebzery is a great addition for Sydney, but they'll really miss the quality of Mitchell. Tupaea being injured is a big blow too so I marked them down accordingly. Looking forward to what Wilson can do.

Love what Adelaide have done, and I'm assuming (perhaps mistakenly?) that Planeta will make her way into the team too at some point. Even if not, they're a quality team with depth. Lack of a superstar is the only reason I marked them below Sydney.

Perth I initially had in last place! Farnworth (nee Edmondson) is a big blow for a team with no backcourt depth. But I've gone the optimistic route and assumed that Sami & Courtney can carry the backcourt in this condensed season, and the collection of Kunek, Standish, Thompson & Dowe can defend & rebound. Hate to say it but I wouldn't be shocked if we ended up 8th though. On the other hand, I really think Williams can tear this league up and we already know what Sami is capable of.

Canberra have some nice names, but Jarry's health is a concern, and Bass is bit of an unknown too (though I will never question her hustle factor). Magbegor will slot in nicely, and in Hurst they have an excellent leader. I've got them 7th but there's really no reason they couldn't finish 3rd.

Any other season, a roster including Kelsey Griffin, Betnijah Laney & Rachel Banham would have been ridiculous to have in last place, but ... that's how good this comp is now. That trio is going to destroy opponents some nights. I question the depth of their supporting cast though.

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Waves2Lynx  
Years ago

Excellent preview Luuc, very eloquent,

I'm loving how unpredictable this season is with how many strong lineups there will be. I'm really hoping the league gets some good momentum out of this.

I think it's proof that there's more than enough talent for another two teams, but obviously need the demand to get to that point first to be sustainable.

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Anon  
Years ago

Townsville and Melbourne. That is all

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Anony-Mouse  
Years ago

I think Bam-Sam Whitcomb will be the MVP she should really stand-out in that side! Some of the others mentioned have better players around them taking the focus. Bam-Sam will for sure have incredible numbers again this season on the back of a WNBA stint!

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Anon  
Years ago

Think perhaps Williams might have something to say about that.....it will be a contest between the two who hogs the ball the most I'm thinking.
Both just want to shoot the ball the second they get it, so could be an issue, then bring Kunek into that scenario, it's not exactly a recipe for success

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