All four of these teams have legitimate claims on a finals berth. They have shown in flashes that when they are playing at their best they have the potential to beat anybody. Melbourne are looking shaky. Cairns are a bit of a dark horse if they can get Jawai right in the back half of the year they will be dangerous. Adelaide and the hawks are also super dangerous. Who can get it together at the right time of year? Will be very interesting

At this point of the season, it should be two teams making the post-season for a grand final series. Skip the semis. Most of the rest have been far from convincing.

Of those 4 teams Melbourne are the most confusing should be top 2 on talent alone.
Cairns are almost impossible to beat at home and could sneak a couple of wins on the road.
Adelaide aren't as good as I expected so far but I think they will make playoffs along with Illawarra whose stretch of home games coming up is favourable for them.

At this time last year, Sydney were probably on top, Adelaide would've been 3-6. Perth was last in late December.

We know how that turned out. So I make these predictions with trepidation from a dark corner, not wanting to put myself in daylight again ;-). A big factor for mine is the uneven NBL schedule, where some teams have had stacks of home games already (Brisbane, Cairns) and others will have more to come (Sydney, Illawarra).


Ins:
Perth. No doubt in my mind on this one. Barring injury disaster, they’ll be there.

NZ- Realistically, even if their form disappears and they go 6-12 from here, that still puts them at 15-13 which would get them in.

Outs:
I don’t think Brisbane will turn things around. They’ve already got 3 imports, have had a home heavy schedule and have been underwhelming. Best case scenario might be Holt finds some form (or they replace him with a gun) and it all clicks. I just can’t see it.

The remaining 2 spots are hard to pick.

Adelaide are loaded with talent, and have a proven coach. More likely than not.

Melbourne have been Jekkyl and Hyde, led by Casper who’s brilliant one minute and does a Houdini disappearance the next. Goulding has had less impact than anyone thought imaginable and they’re still 5-5, so I see upside here. More likely than not.

Cairns have had their moments and have battled admirably without Jawai and (for the most part) Carrera. But they’re still only 4-3 at home and 5-6 overall, with 10 away games from their remaining 17 and need to work Carrera back into the rotation, with whom they haven’t impressed. That will take some adjustment (Jawai should be fine though). Less likely.

Illawarra have been interesting, with some coaching adjustments helping them to a 4 game win streak. Their record is OK given how few home games they've had. Never underestimate Bevo or the Hawks. Less likely than Melbourne or Adelaide but still a strong chance.

Sydney are the real wildcard. With their new roster and 11 home games remaining I’m not writing them off. But I still have question marks over Drewy’s coaching, they’ve been leaking points like crazy (Lisch will help but won’t solve all their problems there), and 2-9 is a long way back, so they’re less likely.

Summary:

Final ladder:
Perth
NZ
Melbourne/Illawarra/Adelaide (Melb and Adel more likely)
Melbourne/Illawarra/Adelaide (Melb and Adel more likely)

Melbourne/Illawarra/Adelaide (Illawarra more likely)
Cairns/Sydney
Cairns/Sydney
Brisbane

Out of interest, the ladder at this point last season was:

Sydney
Brisbane
Perth
New Zealand

Illawarra
Cairns
Melbourne
Adelaide

Of course, there was only something like 2-3 games from top to bottom so the ladder each week wasn't all that relevant. At this point there seems to be a top 2, a middle 4 and a bottom 2, but things can certainly change with injuries etc.

Cairns' only have 3 home games after Christmas and Jawai won't be back until January, so unless they start winning on the road they might well be done by the time Jawai's playing decent minutes again.

They also only have 3 games in February, and the last two games are both away in Perth. I predict handbags at 50 paces.

Nz then daylight

Fingers crossed for NZ and Perth final

NZ's won 9 games with 7 of those by 8 points or less, including 6 by 6 points or less. 4 by 4 points or less.

They've got 8 home games left and 10 away games. So far their 4 away games have been:

- In Cairns against a weakened Cairns who are 4-3 at home this season. Where NZ won on the buzzer.

- In Melb which is a home away from home.

- In Bris. Likely wooden spooners who are 3-3 at home.

- In Perth

Don't get me wrong NZ have been good. But Perth is still my title tip. And Melbourne, Adelaide or even Illawarra could conceivably still catch NZ by seasons end

"In Cairns against a weakened Cairns who are 4-3 at home this season."

In the past four weeks the Taipans at home beat Perth by 21, Melbourne by 23 and Illawarra by 21. To play down a win in Cairns is laughable.

All that means is that, like most other teams, there's been a big gap between their best and their worst.

They're still 4-3 at home. They also lost by 26 to Adelaide.

But, maybe I'm being harsh. Cairns have been better at home than most teams.

Even so, that's only 2 tough road games out of 11. NZ loves Hisense and Bris is probably the easiest road game of any.

So my point stands- NZ's fixture has been friendlier so far than most teams.

2 from 10*

"But, maybe I'm being harsh. Cairns have been better at home than most teams."

Now you're talking sense!

I think NZ are in a very strong position at the moment.

The Sixers had a great run at the end of last season to turn their season around but it is hard to see a team do a similar thing this season.

Melbourne are definitely underperforming based on their roster and the Sixers would breath better without them in. Cairns always seem to be mid-pack and Illawarra are definitely due a big season.

I'm thinking the table will finish up pretty much as it is:

NZ
Perth
Melbourne
Adelaide
Cairns
Illawarra
Sydney
Brisbane

I said in another post that Adelaide suck at home so I can't trust them, Melbourne are becoming a basketcase so you can't trust them, Brisbane need to find a way to get Holt playing as an Asian exception and get yet another import because they are terrible. I don't think NZ are that brilliant but they keep winning.

My tips are

Perth
Illawarra
NZ
Cairns
Sydney
Melbourne
Adelaide
Brisbane

If Taipans can't make it then I think a miracle from the Kings could occur, but that is as likely as Copeland looking like he is actually contributing somehow, some way.

I think McCarron needs to keep starting and have Carrera coming off the bench with his explosive temperament he will help that second unit, along with his big mate Nate

New Zealand
Perth
Melbourne
Sydney

Adelaide
Illawarra
Cairns
Brisbane

New Zealand to finish first with a 4 or 5 game gap to Perth

New Zealand v Perth GF...NZ winning due to home court.

I've got Melbourne to miss the 4, but if they squeeze in, i think they are the most likely to cause an upset against Perth or NZ and reach the Grand Final (and lose).

1. Perth (or nz)
2. NZ (or perth)

3. Illawarra (anywhere from 3-6)
4. Cairns (anywhere from 3-6)
5. Adelaide (anywhere from 3-6)
6. Melbourne (anywhere from 3-6)

7. Brisbane (won't make the 4)
8. Sydney (won't make the 4)

I think we all agree that 1-2 position is locked in. After that, I think Ade, Melb, Illa and Cairns are all as good/bad as each other.

The 4 is still wide open, but baring injuries the top 2 is set.

Melbourne just aren't quite there. Too many big names not earning their paycheque.

Sydney have imploded, as has Joey.

I reckon MU, 36's,Snakes, and Hawks are in the fight for the other two spots.

I really hope its not another NZ v Perth GF. The last one was bad enough, a 5 games series would be horrendous. It will go with HCA and the final game will be like watching zombies.

oooh, an insult from an anonytroll, how will I go on living

The anon troll probably just a kid

Perth and New Zealand will both play finals. I don't think NZ have the killer mentality of past seasons, and they are more likely to fade down the stretch, but not enough to miss the finals.

If Vickerman has the balls to bench CG, MU will probably make it. If not, I doubt it.

I hope Adelaide don't make it, largely because I can't stand Joey or Drmic.

Illawarra have a lot of home games remaining, and they have Clarke and Conger. I think they'll make finals. Good luck to them.

Cairns have had some shit luck with injuries to Jawai and Carrera that have stopped us from getting the best advantage from a good early season draw. We'll be lucky to make the finals, needing to win at least nine games, with only seven at home remaining. Any more home losses will make life very tough.

Brisbane and Sydney should be looking toward 2018/19 already.