Jack Toft
Last year

United vs Hawks, 29 Oct 2018

If it's Monday night, it must be NBL game time.

Last time these teams met in R1, they had to go to four OTs to split them. That's probably not going to happen again.

Earlier in the round, Melbourne travelled to Perth for a loss in a double overtime game. Gee 27 fouls to 12... Illawarra hosted Brisbane and got the chochies.

To be confirmed, but I expect that CG43 is watching from the sidelines. This is a gap in the door into which the Hawks need to plant their foot like a travelling encyclopaedia salesman. A significant proportion of the United plays have CG43 as the sun and the other guys as planets, except that CG43 revolves around a (moving) screen to toss up a 3. United need to cover that absence and Ware will they find a player to do that?

Hawks are 2-0 from their last two games against those Queenslander teams. I kind of get the feeling that it is the Hawks game to lose as they have more aces than Jacks in the absence of Goulding.

I'm going to put the stones on the line here. Hawks to trail for most of the game only to win it off a Cedric Jackson 3. (Change my Mind)

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LV  
Last year

United has a bunch of guys who are due for a big game. United as a team is due for a good performance at the offensive end.

This is the 5th game of the season and the first time this season I'm saying this.

I think United wins comfortably. Double digits.

If CG's out, great opportunity to get some continuity and chemistry. I hope Hooley and Moller both get extended minutes.

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Jumpshot  
Last year

Good essay. However, you forgot to say that without CG floppy 3, Melbourne will lose by 1 flop.

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LV  
Last year

More specifically, I think Vickerman will put the hard word on Kennedy- and maybe McCarron too- telling them to be aggressive at the offensive end in the absence of CG.

I doubt we've seen all Kennedy has to offer. If he does try to take the game on, he could be too physically strong for Blanchfield, and Conklin will struggle to stay in front of him.

Casper won’t need encouragement. He’ll be fuming after getting robbed of his game winning basket. He’ll keep trying to shoot himself out of his slump, like he did in Perth when he hit 2 threes in the first minute and then immediately put up 2 more.

I dunno, I just get the feeling United is "due". Same reason I tipped Brisbane over Perth.

United is a veteran team of seasoned pros, guys like Casper and Kennedy who have runs on the board in different contexts all around the world. They’re proud, they’ll be angry after the Perth loss, and they’re on their home court against a less talented opponent who won’t be as hungry cos they already got a win this round.

It is a very even comp, granted, but this one to me has the smell of a big win. And no, I don’t say that every week. Could be wrong- we’ll see!

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Anonymous  
Last year

If Ware needs a bad 50/50 call to motivate him, instead of the fact he went 1 from 10 from downtown across 49 minutes of basketball, then you'd probably say his head isn't in the game already.

Reply #711885 | Report this post


LV  
Last year

It's not so much about motivation specifically.

It's just that intangible, mysterious element. Form, confidence. Psychology.

Good players don't stay down forever.

The likelihood is that soon Casper will explode.

The likelihood is that Kennedy starts to find his rhythm with this group.

These things aren't guaranteed. Just likely.

Reply #711887 | Report this post


Hogwash  
Last year

Second spot up for grabs.
Melbourne need more from Kennedy.
Still think Melb will win but hope I'm wrong.

Reply #711895 | Report this post


Isaac  
Last year

Goulding is a confirmed out.

McCarron already playing aggressively. Kennedy is a bit passive - not the only one like that in this import crop.

Reply #711903 | Report this post


Luuuc  
Last year

I'm expecting United to bounce back hard from Saturday. I think the way they played in Perth would have given them some confidence, and losing will have given them some fire.
Not that Hawks aren't a chance, but they'd want to jump out of the gates pretty quickly.
Looking forward to some Monday afternoon basketball :)

Reply #711905 | Report this post


Hendo8888  
Last year

If Illawarra get some leg room on the flight over, they should be a chance.

Reply #711906 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last year

No Goulding means ware needs to step up and be more aggressive.key is Kennedy if he has a god game united wins but I get the feeling the Hawks are starting to roll. King Kong v boon matchup is key

Reply #711916 | Report this post


Rabbit70  
Last year

Melbourne to win easily.

Reply #711923 | Report this post


Jack Toft  
Last year

if Illawarra get some leg room on the flight over, they should be a chance.


Gold

Reply #711925 | Report this post


Jack Toft  
Last year

I know everyone keeps saying "United are due" but maybe the Hawks are due?

Agreed with the comments on Hooley Dooley. Massive opportunity for him to score at 1 point per minute plus in CG43's absence. He could be offered 10 mins of game time and should be looking at scoring 12 to 15 points in that time.

No comments on Cedric? Has Cedric the Dragon Slayer slayed his last dragon? Could he be the wildcard in this game and drop a lazy 25?

Reply #711928 | Report this post


Isaac  
Last year

Conklin was looking pretty energised in their other game this round!

Reply #711929 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last year

Boone, Kennedy, Moller carrying injuries and Goulding out if my mail is correct.

Reply #711936 | Report this post


LoveBroker  
Last year

How can people say United are 'due' when they are already the favourites to win?

Reply #711946 | Report this post


Manu Fieldel  
Last year

Being due for a win/good performance clearly has nothing to do with favouritism. How do you come to that conclusion?

Are these injuries to Boone, Kennedy, Moller substantiated in any way?

Reply #711952 | Report this post


Luuuc  
Last year

^ Yeah I guess there are a multiple interpretations of of what "due" means.
For me it's if a team is considered strong so they're unlikely to keep losing. Therefore "due for a win". Doesn't really apply to United right now because their losing "streak" is 1 game and it was barely a loss.

Someone else people might use it in the context of a team going poorly that is maybe "due" for some luck, based on probabilities.

Maybe LV means it in the sense that the Hawks are rubbish but they won their last 2 games, so they're overdue for a loss ;)

Reply #711959 | Report this post


Manu Fieldel  
Last year

LV, using either meaning, favouritism doesn't actually factor.

Hawks are certainly worth a bet

Reply #711963 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last year

Overtime is due.

Reply #711970 | Report this post


LV  
Last year

By "due", I meant United hasn't put in a good 4 quarter performance yet this season.

They've had 4 games that have all been quite mixed. At some point, presumably, things will "click"- even if it's only for one short lived 40 minutes before returning to mediocrity.

Casper is a confidence player. When he gets hot, he's more than capable of going off for 25 points and giving his opponents nightmares for the next week. It hasn't happened yet- he's due. Kennedy is due. McCarron is due.

Boone does appear to have some kind of injury. Kennedy it wouldn't surprise me. I guess this could put a hole in my theory that tonight's their night.

Reply #711971 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last year

Injuries don't help you perform at your best, even if they aren’t substantial your not as effective as you can be.

Reply #711980 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last year

Ogilvy hasn't yet played a ferocious dominating game at both ends. He is due.

Reply #711983 | Report this post


Isaac  
Last year

LV hasn't suited for United yet. Maybe he's due?

Reply #711994 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last year

Whos LV

Reply #711997 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last year

I'm praying for a dodgy charge call on Ware with the clock winding down in the last.

Go Hawks

Reply #711998 | Report this post


Melbourne Boy  
Last year

Was that Felix Von Hofe doing the Sportsbet read, looked like a pro compared to Wortho.

Reply #712031 | Report this post


sixtiesrockstar  
Last year

What is with goldilocks Jett's ponytails?

Reply #712034 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last year

Ced Jackson and Jet are sub-par

Reply #712035 | Report this post


AngusH  
Last year

Dave Barlow running down the key for a jam like it's 2004.

Reply #712038 | Report this post


AngusH  
Last year

And United looking like Dean Demopoulos era United during that hot streak.

Reply #712040 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last year

What is Sam Short doing on a NBL roster?

Reply #712041 | Report this post


Durtle  
Last year

Oh wow. Melbourne are way on top. Playing great basketball. This game is making me sleepy early.

I don't think that Illawarra will be here next season.

Reply #712043 | Report this post


Isaac  
Last year

I just don't get Bevo's aversion to using Coenraad. He was +18 last outing and didn't play half the game. Is he injured tonight? Played 3:48 and then that's it.

Sure, he has Blanchfield at his position, but give him some of Jett's minutes or Grida's. I would've thought that he can play 2-4 OK?

Getting out-rebounded and woeful from three. He works hard on the boards and is a decent shooter.

Reply #712048 | Report this post


Durtle  
Last year

Why does games start at 750pm here in Melbourne but 630 over in the West?

750pm is quite late.

Reply #712049 | Report this post


AshT  
Last year

"I don't think that Illawarra will be here next season."

That's unless they change their coach, sooner than later.

Reply #712050 | Report this post


LV  
Last year

As predicted so far.

They ran a couple of plays for Kennedy in the opening minute, unfortunately he didn't make the most.

Casper caught fire early.

Feeling good. Hopefully Moller gets more time in second half.

Reply #712051 | Report this post


Isaac  
Last year

Coenraad starting the second half.

Reply #712052 | Report this post


LV  
Last year

Interesting sub plot here is Casper's foul trouble

Good test for Hooley, McCarron and Kennedy's ball carrying under pressure

Reply #712053 | Report this post


LV  
Last year

Here's a question for those people who think "a basket early in the game us equal to a basket late in the game"

Why did Casper start 2nd half on the pine?

Because Vickerman wants him on at the end of the game. When it matters most.

Reply #712054 | Report this post


Manu Fieldel  
Last year

Melbourne is due... for a bucket

Reply #712055 | Report this post


Isaac  
Last year

LV, I think just resting him on the off-chance he could get away with it given the way Illawarra was playing.

Reply #712056 | Report this post


CT  
Last year

anyone else having problems with the audio on nbl TV? mine is absolutely rooted. sounds like two seperate audio commentary tracks playing simultaneously.

Reply #712057 | Report this post


LV  
Last year

Elbows!

Reply #712058 | Report this post


LV  
Last year

[LV, I think just resting him on the off-chance he could get away with it given the way Illawarra was playing]

I get that.

But on the other hand, you're up 17, why not try to get an unassailable 25 point lead and bury them?

Fact is, Vickerman didn't want to risk Casper getting another foul unless absolutely necessary. If Casper had not been in foul trouble, he would've been on the court. Vickerman wanted to preserve him to increase the probability that he's available for the dying minutes.

Proves my point- coaches know that a bucket at the end of a game is worth more than a bucket half way through a game.

Reply #712059 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last year

Moller playing good D but needs to shoot more on offence

Reply #712062 | Report this post


LV  
Last year

We have a ballgame.

This might go to 5 overtimes.

Reply #712063 | Report this post


Zodiac  
Last year

anyone else having problems with the audio on nbl TV? mine is absolutely rooted. sounds like two seperate audio commentary tracks playing simultaneously.


I'm not watching this game but the same thing happened yesterday trying to watch the Breakers v Sixers game, I just gave up watching after about five minutes it was excruciating.

Reply #712065 | Report this post


Melbourne Boy  
Last year

Ogilvy once again proving to be an oxygen thief

Reply #712066 | Report this post


LV  
Last year

United with several guys in foul trouble here

Reply #712067 | Report this post


Mock  
Last year

Please no post-game interview with Barlow, the bloke was PAINFUL at half time

Reply #712068 | Report this post


LV  
Last year

Casper having the game we've all been waiting for

Kennedy a bit of a worry though

Just isn't very aggressive. Not what I was expecting from a guy who's scored as many as he has, in good leagues, with plenty of those points coming from the line

Reply #712069 | Report this post


LV  
Last year

Maybe Kennedy is still struggling with some of his injuries

Reply #712070 | Report this post


Isaac  
Last year

Audio and video have been excellent for me on NBL.TV throughout.

Glad the Hawks made a game of it after a hapless start.

Reply #712072 | Report this post


LV  
Last year

Well done Hawks, Naar was a spark off the bench, Conklin unstoppable down low. Jett toiled hard but Casper brought his A game tonight.

United's unconvincing start to the season continues.

They know it too. Poor body language not great for a team who's 3-2 and had a win without their MVP from the season to date. They expect better, so do I.

Reply #712073 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last year

I'm liking these United-Hawks matchups.

Reply #712081 | Report this post


Food for thought  
Last year

I was expecting less from this game but I was actually pretty into it. Caspar Ware starting to look like the guy by the same name who played in that team last year. David Barlow's dunk came out of nowhere, and then he simulated flinging shit at the crowd. The pace was good, Conklin was tough inside. Yeah, not too bad at all.

Reply #712094 | Report this post


Benno  
Last year

United wont win a title if DJ Kennedy is in the team!

Reply #712107 | Report this post


koberulz  
Last year

Proves my point- coaches know that a bucket at the end of a game is worth more than a bucket half way through a game.
You assume that they're right.

Reply #712108 | Report this post


paul  
Last year

"Here's a question for those people who think a basket early in the game is equal to a basket late in the game."

A basket early in the game is equal to a basket late in the game, that's indisputable as they contribute the same on the scoreboard. What gets lost in that discussion is baskets late in a close game are often tougher to get, because the intensity of the defence rises. That's why players who can score (or create) in late-game situations are highly valued.

Reply #712118 | Report this post


LV  
Last year

Exactly Paul.

"Worth " is not merely about how many points are contributed but how hard those points were to get. End game buckets are more of a scarce resource.

Reply #712120 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last year

Thanks Paul, for explaining what LV made a mess of.

Reply #712127 | Report this post


TH62  
Last year

However if enough baskets are scored at the start/during the game than those late baskets are meaningless in the big scheme of things, hence the "garbage time" expression.
As such, using your "logic" at the start baskets are worth more than late game ones!
Oh and coaches do start players in foul trouble on the bench, no mystery there or some diabolical plan, it's basketball 101.
Keep pumping yourself LV, your coaching and analytical commentary is hysterical!

Reply #712129 | Report this post


LV  
Last year

You're late to the party here buddy.

This whole conversation was in reference to Casper's denied basket with 1.4 seconds left in overtime.

Pay some more attention next time.

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Greggo  
Last year

Do we have any explanation of Barlow's celebration yet? I need to know...

Reply #712132 | Report this post


LV  
Last year

PS: Paul added some beef, but he pretty much explained exactly why my point was correct

That my point is in fact accurate, I don't think anyone doubts except maybe the one and only Koberulz.

Reply #712133 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last year

LV, no one has ever denied having your best scorers on at the end is the right move, or that the ability to score in the clutch is valuable. The context of the "all points are equal" argument is generally around “bad/missed” calls at the end of the game, where people (usually you) say that it cost one team the game, while completely ignoring that a bad or missed call anywhere else during the game may have cost the other team two points, and no matter which way you spin it, those two points are worth no more or less than two points.

Reply #712137 | Report this post


LV  
Last year

If a point is scored early, the other team can always reply.

A basket denied in the dying seconds leaves no opportunity for a reply. It is final. That Casper Ware bucket would've been the final word in that game.

Now, if he’d scored another bucket earlier, you could say "Well there’s his two points", but that ignores context- 2 points earlier will shape the way the game is played later. Hence- there’s opportunity for a reply, and to shape how to reply.

Reply #712142 | Report this post


paul  
Last year

"If a point is scored early, the other team can always reply. A basket denied in the dying seconds leaves no opportunity for a reply."

If the other team had scored another basket earlier then that score in the dying seconds might be meaningless to the result. A late score isn't of more value than an early score - buckets at any time of the game are equal, with exception of 3s over 2s obviously - but they can be harder to get at certain times of the game.

Reply #712145 | Report this post


LV  
Last year

Of course- this isn't an absolute statement. It's always context dependent- and the context of this whole discussion was a basket denied with 1.4 seconds remaining.

Assuming a close game though, a basket at the end is always worth more, for the reasons outlined.

And as last night's game shows, coaches will defer to the assumption that the end will matter more, even during a game that isn't close. No one's adequately answered the question of why Vickerman was saving Casper, even though there was the possibility of leaving him on court (he had 14 first half points) and blowing out the result from a 17 point lead to an unassailable 25 or 30 point margin. The only reason he was off the court was because of foul trouble. The question is why does this matter? Why not just leave him on the court and risk him getting a 4th foul? Why save him to increase the chances he'll be able to play minutes late in the game?

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Anonymous  
Last year

The reasons discussed state a player is worth more if he can score in the clutch, not that the basket is worth more.

Reply #712153 | Report this post


LV  
Last year

You're assuming that "worth" is measured in points. Worth just means value. Value is not measured entirely in quantifiable terms of "points".

Also, consider the way Casper started the Perth game- 5 or 6 points in the first minute. Then what, 11 points in the first 3 or 4 minutes last night?

Vickerman would've been well aware of this. But still decided to bench him to start the second half.



Reply #712155 | Report this post


LV  
Last year

Also, if certain players can score in the clutch but others can't, then that alone tells you that clutch baskets are more valuable than other baskets.

Which is my whole point.

Reply #712156 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last year

Points are measured in points, end of story. Warne's value or worth might be more than another player, because Ware can score in the clutch, but that does not mean than any field goal Ware scores in the final minute is worth more than two points. You are conflating two issues.

Reply #712157 | Report this post


paul  
Last year

No, because 'clutch' baskets are only relevant if you've scored enough baskets earlier in the game.

Reply #712158 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last year

"then that alone tells you that clutch baskets are more valuable than other baskets."

No it doesn't.

Reply #712159 | Report this post


Isaac  
Last year

Vickerman for PM because he saved a starter for crunchtime! LV's uncovered an incredible coaching ploy!

LV, I admire your resilience, but you pick some bizarre points and reasons to argue them.

Reply #712164 | Report this post


LV  
Last year

There are only certain players that the coach will ask to shoot a game winner.

Why was Vickerman ok with Hooley on court to start the second half, giving him ther opportunity to score those baskets earlier in the game, but he wouldn't generally want Hooley on at the death?

In other words Paul your last comment is 100% true but also irrelevant to the question.

Reply #712166 | Report this post


LV  
Last year

Isaac, there's a reason it's called "crunch" time.

Reply #712168 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last year

"Isaac, there's a reason it's called "crunch" time. "

Huh?

Reply #712170 | Report this post


paul  
Last year

Yes, because both teams have scored close to an equal amount of valuable baskets leading up to the final minutes, bringing the game to a "crunch" at the end.

Reply #712171 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last year

Its also called "clutch", as in LV forgot to put his foot on the clutch when he was trying to change gears.

Reply #712173 | Report this post


LV  
Last year

Correct Paul. And which basket is the most valuable- the one at the crescendo, to which there is no reply and after which, the result is decided? Or the many valuable baskets prior?

Reply #712177 | Report this post


paul  
Last year

Equally valuable. As I said, the value of a score at the end of the game is dependent on those scored (and prevented) earlier in the game.

Reply #712181 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last year

Vintage LV.

Reply #712207 | Report this post


Isaac  
Last year

Why was Vickerman ok with Hooley on court to start the second half, giving him ther opportunity to score those baskets earlier in the game, but he wouldn't generally want Hooley on at the death?
Hooley was on at the end of the game. As was that other crunchtime scorer Tohi Smith-Milner. Over Moller and Pledger.

One reason you bench your best players is to let them rest and keep them fresh. A reason they're out there at the end of a close game is that they're about to get a rest, you know, when the game finishes. Not because two points isn't worth two points.

Reply #712282 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last year

It looked a strange decision at the time to have Hooley and Smith Milner on at the death ahead of Pledger and Moller, especially because Hooley has brain fade turn overs and SM fouls a lot which could've sent Illawarra to the stripe but vickerman must have been comfortable they were going to win. Moller carrying injury to I believe.

Re the Monday night game really enjoyed it, like to see it a lot more.

Reply #712287 | Report this post


LV  
Last year

If memory serves, Hooley was subbed on in the last minute, after Kennedy fouled out. That was strategic- so that United had 3 guards to deal with the full court pressure, with Hooley being a better ball handler and free throw shooter than Moller.

None of that is relevant, or makes any difference to the point I've been making.

Your other comment about keeping players fresh is irrelevant to my example- Casper had just been sitting in the changerooms for 15 minutes. So clearly, keeping him off to start the second had nothing to do with giving him a breather.

Reply #712288 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last year

"Your other comment about keeping players fresh is irrelevant to my example- Casper had just been sitting in the changerooms for 15 minutes. So clearly, keeping him off to start the second had nothing to do with giving him a breather."

So why did he do it then?

Reply #712293 | Report this post




 

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