koberulz
Earlier this year

Hot-Starting Teams Collapsing

2019: Perth 10-1, will miss playoffs.
2018: NZ 9-1, scraped in with a week or two left in the season. Swept out in the first round.
2017: Sydney led the league for the first ten rounds. Finished seventh.


I can't get the W-L for Sydney because nobody keeps this information anymore, but that's three straight years a team has come out hot and completely collapsed in the second half of the year.

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paul  
Earlier this year

Sydney were 5-1 and then 8-4 before going 5-11 on the run home.

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KET  
Earlier this year

Perth will make the playoffs.

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koberulz  
Earlier this year

Sydney were 5-1 and then 8-4 before going 5-11 on the run home.
Is that all? I remembered them being more dominant than that. Nonetheless, they finished rounds 2-10 atop the ladder and barely missed out on the spoon.

The year prior Melbourne started, what, 10-0? Ended up finishing on top, but then got swept out pretty decisively in the semis.


Perth will make the playoffs.
They have seven games left. One vs Illawarra which is a potential win, then six against Adelaide/Melbourne/Sydney. They need three wins. They haven't won a game against anyone except the terrible version of Cairns since November.

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Wendy Byrd  
Earlier this year

Koberulz is a mug. So if he's confident Perth won't make the playoffs they probably will.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

You're the mug "wendy" Simpleton.

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KET  
Earlier this year

KR: Perth need 1 more win/or better percentage than 5th spot.

Perth have 5 home games remaining, that's a good start and a game winner in Cotton. Plus an inconsistent Adelaide in Perth. Which leads to the below:

Adelaide - fifth - requires +2 to get over Brisbane or Perth. With 8 games left, that's actually a pretty tough scenario. The run is tough - Melbourne twice, Sydney, Perth twice more - plus NZ away and Cairns away.

If Perth beats Adelaide in Perth, that creates another +2 hurtle for Adelaide to reach.

For Adelaide to make it, the requirement is a mixture of needing other teams to lose and winning not only any old games, but the right games, ie. beat Perth twice, beat NZ away, grab one against Melbourne and don't let Cairns get the better.

If the idea is Adelaide will make the finals, that means we're assuming the wins come from somewhere more than just Perth twice. Realistically, that might require beating Melbourne twice, or Melb and Sydney, in which case Melbourne's 7 losses doesn't look all that strong for a top 4 either, if you're allotting a loss or two to Adelaide.

Realistically, it's a bridge too far.

I think NZ are again, slightly lesser likely too - perhaps leaving their run a tad too late.

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Wendy Byrd  
Earlier this year

Sorry koberulz, I apologise for my comments above.

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LV  
Earlier this year

I think Perth will still make playoffs

But without their delicious home cooking, they'll get beaten in the semis

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UseTaHoop  
Earlier this year

Avocado imports get bitter when they get too hot.

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Bol  
Earlier this year

Wendy, if you actually watched the show with even a shred of observance, you would know that the correct spelling is Byrde.

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Beantown  
Earlier this year

Those two losses to Brisbane in Adelaide could really cost the Sixers a playoff spot this season! It's going to be close. I think the Sixers need to win both road games against Cairns and NZ and at least split with Melbourne and Perth. Even then that might only see them level with Perth on 16 wins. Seeing the way Perth played Thursday night though, I think the Sixers could absolutely beat them in both remaining games. With some of the odd results lately, its also still possible the Bullets shoot themselves in the nuts!

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