Anonymous
Earlier this year

32 Seasons - End of an Era

I know there's a lot of antagonism towards Perth in this forum, but I feel it is time to pay tribute to what has been a tremendous effort, and one that will certainly not be matched in my lifetime.

So ok, I know that in some of those years we had 6 or 8 team play-offs, so perhaps not a great challenge to make the play-offs. However no other team has done it, nor indeed even come close.

Even during the lean decade, when they lost their venue, lost their deep pockets, they still managed to claw their way into the play-offs.

Ironic really to think that a team led by their most successful Coach and Captain, will be the one to end the streak.

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koberulz  
Earlier this year

Even if you only count appearances in the top six, they still make the playoffs 29 out of those 32 years. And one of the three years they finished seventh, they demolished Brisbane and Wollongong to get to the semi finals.

But yeah, they were tremendously lucky with the timing of playoff expansion. Others have said that those easy playoff berths were available to everyone in the league at that time, and none of those other teams have put together such a streak, but that overlooks the circumstances. There's always going to be a drop-off as the old guard retires and new blood is brought in - much like is happening now - and making the playoffs through that transition period is necessary to build such a lengthy streak. In Perth's case, the transition period that came with the retirements of Grace, Fisher, and Vlahov, and the departure of Harvey and Black, coincided with an era in which 2/3 of the league got to see action in the post-season. So they were able to ride out that transition period while still scraping into the playoffs, before the league dropped to eight teams and the new Martin/Redhage/Lisch core was ready to go.

That expansion didn't benefit teams like Sydney, Brisbane, or Melbourne, as they were on the top of the league at that time.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

I wouldn't be so quick to write Perth off. The Kings might be about to collapse in a screaming heap. If Perth beats the Kings in Sydney next week things can change in a hurry.

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California Dreaming  
Earlier this year

I'm a 36ers fan so naturally loathe the Wildcats. Gotta respect their whole organisation though.
Don’t write them off!!
Remember a few years back, they needed to win and needed another team to lose just to make the playoffs.

THEN THEY GOT IN AND WON THE TITLE!!!

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Manu Fieldel  
Earlier this year

Perth will win today

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PeterJohn  
Earlier this year

Perth have been remarkable in achieving that streak. None of Melbourne, Adelaide and Wollongong - the other teams to play the last 32 seasons, have come close to achieving that. Add in the number of championships that streak has delivered and you have to call it a dynasty.

I think there's a good chance this season will be 33. As I posted in another thread, though, I now believe that chance has dropped below 50%. They have to win at least one of the remaining games against the 36ers.

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Hogwash  
Earlier this year

For those who think the playoff streak is watered down that's fair enough but remember teams like Adelaide, Illawarra and Melbourne have been around for over 30 seasons and don't even come close.

Perth can't be written off yet, Sydney are on a slide too.

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Isaac  
Earlier this year

Bit premature to write them off.

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Violet Crumble  
Earlier this year

It's still too soon to write Perth off. They began the season strong, and thus have put themselves in a good position despite their recent struggles. They are still holding onto a playoff spot, and they still control their own destiny (especially with games coming up against Adelaide who are probably the biggest threat to step up into the 4).

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Violet Crumble  
Earlier this year

Plus Perth are still strong at home, with more games out west than not.

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XY  
Earlier this year

There are 1 1/2 games between first and fifth, with every team with at least six games to play. It is waaay too early to write any team in, or any team off. Illawarra are still in the hunt too, although they would have to excel from here.

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koberulz  
Earlier this year

When this was posted Perth hadn't beaten anyone other than Cairns since November, and lost a home game to Cairns as well. They looked incapable of winning a game.

They still do, really. Gave up a decent lead with a couple of minutes to go and gave Melbourne a wife open layup to win it. They got very lucky.

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KET  
Earlier this year

It was 110% premature

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D2  
Earlier this year

I think we can do it, but its going to be a close run thing.
Hey at least it gives us something to aspire to. If we extend the streak we're going to party like its 1989.

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PeterJohn  
Earlier this year

Based on 100,000 randomised simulations of the outcomes for the last 29 games of the season, Perth are an 84% chance of playing finals. Adelaide are a 56% chance. Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney all 81% or better.

Note that the simulations don't cover all possible outcomes as my computer would take over a day to run that. Also, it doesn't really take into account current form, just accumulated form over the whole season - things like home and away results and average winning margins for the whole season to date.

If Adelaide win both of the remaining games against Perth by 1 point, then Adelaide's chances of finals increase to 90% and Perth's fall to 52%.

If Adelaide and Perth split their remaining games, each winning by 1 point, then Adelaide's chances of finals are 60% and Perth's are 86%.

If Perth wins both games by 1 point, then Perth's chances of finals rise to 98% and Adelaide's fall to 31%.

Those numbers say "incentive to win" to me - for both teams.

The Adelaide-Perth games' outcomes have only marginal impacts on the finals' chances for Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney.

So two huge Adelaide-Perth games coming up and both at The Jungle. Ain't NBL great!

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koberulz  
Earlier this year

I'm not sure a formula that gives five teams a 50%+ chance of making the finals is all that reliable TBH.

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D2.0  
Earlier this year

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Wendy Byrd  
Earlier this year

"When this was posted Perth hadn't beaten anyone other than Cairns since November, and lost a home game to Cairns as well. They looked incapable of winning a game."

Homicide-esque analysis.

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Lovebroker  
Earlier this year

Plus Perth are still strong at home


As displayed by :

a) Making David Wear look all-NBL in Perth.

b) Losing to Cairns, in Perth.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

"I'm not sure a formula that gives five teams a 50%+ chance of making the finals is all that reliable TBH."

someone tell this person how probabilities work

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Hogwash  
Earlier this year

Perth are safe.
Melbourne still safe.
Brisbane and Adelaide going well.
Sydney could still miss out

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Lovebroker  
Earlier this year

Perth are safe


Normally I would tend to agree, but Perth's inability to score has been put on full display during this bad run.

Yesterday, they were one blown layup from another home loss, Ware would make that 9 out of 10 times, Perth's defence on that play was horrible.

With 2 games against Sydney and Sixers to come, I think there is a lot to worry about yet.

With Hire, Jervis, Vague, Wagstaff, Steindl and even Brandt and Norton producing sub par performances in the last 10 games, it is simply too much to ask for the starting 5 to take the entire scoring load.

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LV  
Earlier this year

Any of the top 5 could finish on top, and any of them could miss the top 4.

Illawarra and NZ (6th and 7th) highly unlikely but still possible.

How many times would we have been able to say that with only a month to go in the regular season?

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LV  
Earlier this year

Everyone is talking as if Casper's layup gifted Perth the win.

But

1. Perth led for 98% of the game, and it was only two quick threes by Barlow that had put United in a position where they could steal it.

2. If Casper had hit the layup Perth would've had 6 seconds to score for the win. How many game winners has Cotton hit over the past couple of seasons? Plenty.

Perth was so dominant over the first third of the season that they still have the best % of any team. And easily.

Writing them off was very premature

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Rabbit70  
Earlier this year

Wildcats are playing well, but must make better rotations. They were up by 16pts. They need to find that determination where if up by 16pts, they extend that to 25/30 pt leads.

Many times Wildcats are up by double digits yet the other team comes back hard to square it up or win it.

If the Wildcats won each game they were up by double digits then the Wildcats would of probably only lost 4 games this season.

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UseTaHoop  
Earlier this year

PeterJohn

Do you run the sort of probability software that bookmakers use?

I ask because you could try to factor in more recent form somehow. Maybe work out what sort of % improvement or slide for each team. Then you'd have a good basis to set odds.

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Cram  
Earlier this year

Foolish to write off Perth. Whatever the circumstances of their record, they've managed to pull it out time and again. I think they'll make it again.

"For those who think the playoff streak is watered down that's fair enough but remember teams like Adelaide, Illawarra and Melbourne have been around for over 30 seasons and don't even come close."

United have only been around for 5 years.

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PeterJohn  
Earlier this year

koberulz - not a formula, just looking at 100,000 different win-loss scenarios for the remaining 29 games of the season and counting how many have a specific team making finals. i.e., 50% chance means 50,000 of the scenarios had that team ending up in playoffs.

Because 4 teams end up in playoffs then one team might make playoffs in 80,000 scenarios and another team also make finals in the same 80,000 scenarios. Then they'd each have an 80% chance of making playoffs.

The 100,000 scenarios modelled are selected randomly from the over 500 million total possible scenarios so should give a statistically reliable estimate of the mathematical chances for the teams involved.

The simulation approach uses the distribution of winning margins for the season to date to generate game scores for each scenario. Not perfect but modelling all the potential scenarios of game scores as well as win-loss outcome is prohibitively expensive for computer resources.

Of course, mathematical chances are not the same as real-world chances and my model is pretty simplistic. Unlike the models the betting agencies use, but they have access to a lot more detailed data and resources (time mainly)!

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Trev  
Earlier this year

Wildcats should look at singing David Barlow. Great aussie who can replace wagstaff or hire.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

David "The Stiff" Barlow. Please sign him. Then 2 years in a row missing out Fantastic.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Barlow's on court complaining would be a good match for gleeson's off court complaining

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