Jack Toft
Earlier this year

Final Ladder positions

It's going to be decided in the last game! The current ladder is:

MEL (16/8)
PER (16/9)
SYD (16/9)
ADE (13/12)
BRI (12/13)
ILL (12/13)
NZL (10/14)
CNS (4/21)

The only ladder position locked in is Cairns (8). They play BRI, @MEL, @SYD. All other positions are open and essentially all games impact on the final ladder. Top 3 look locked in and for Adelaide to squeeze in, they would need to win all three games and home Sydney have a massive choke. Even if both teams finish on 16/12, Sydney are +41 on the points scored/against so they would need to basically have 15 point loss games each game. Sydney could go to 4th, but most likely 3rd

4th to 7th positions have the potential to be tied on 14/14 each.

MEL: @SYD, @ADE: CNS, PER
PER: SYD: ADE, @MEL
SYD: MEL, @PER: CNS
ADE: @NZL, MEL: @PER
BRI: ILL, @CNS: NZL
ILL: @BRI, NZL: @NZL
NZL: ADE, @ILL: ILL, @BRI

You would think Sydney might go 1 and 2 to finish 17/11 in 3rd spot.
Perth are most likely to challenge Melbourne for top spot but are likely to finish 2nd. The very last game of the minor round against Melbourne and Perth would be worth spending a weekend in Melbourne to watch.

Adelaide's crunch game will be the away game in New Zealand. They can afford to maybe drop 1, but need to go 3/3 to secure 4th.
Brisbane v Illawarra is another key clash. Whoever wins that game has advantage.
New Zealand are the complete smokies for the 4th. Knock off the Sixers, then back a quick trip to Wollongong. Then next week extra, repeat. Knock off Hawks at home, then a dagger to Brisbane. Cairns last game with Loughton retiring should be a sell out and Brisbane might need to play out of their skins to get a W.

Yep, at this stage, all games are must win games and I think the only real ladder spots locked in are;

1. MEL
2. PER
3. SYD


8. CNS

I think the most likely way the cards fall are
ADE: (14/14)
BRI: (14/14)
NZL: (13/15)
ILL: (12/16)

With PF/PA ADE are +9 and BRI are +17, so ADE needs a big +20 win if they get 2 losses and hope BRI gets a couple of tight wins to sneak into the 4.

Sorry Adelaide, I think the final table is most likely to be:

1. MEL
2. PER
3. SYD
4 BRI (on %)
5. ADE
6. NZL
7. ILL
8. CNS

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Said it once and will say it again, Jack is my favorite guy on the forums... I even forgive that he is a Sixers supporter. Runner up is Isaac, always calm and a voice of reason.

Thanks for the breakdown Jack you legend

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AngusH  
Earlier this year

Agree, great post, thanks!

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

I don't believe the Breakers will finish above the Hawks.

Why do people continue to write off the Illawarra side? While they have been incredibly inconsistent this year, they’ve really pulled it together in recent weeks (actually, teams like Adelaide and Sydney have been the most inconsistent recently). Record suggests they’re actually peaking now - the only losses since 2019 began were actually very close and the Hawks stayed in contest throughout, eg. clash with the Wildcats last week in Perth. They’re actually playing some very good basketball and Cedric Jackson is finally finding some form. Body language is up. Don’t count them out yet, they could seriously come from behind to make the 4th spot.

I’ve got the Hawks finishing in 5th/6th place, and Brisbane just edging into the top 4. The 36ers will drop a few, they might pull off a win against one of the finals teams but their schedule is the toughest for sure. Will definitely be an exciting few weeks!

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Anon  
Earlier this year

Agree with the 4th, but the top 3 can be any order, as they all play each other this round. Should be locked in by Sunday.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Sixers will get home court advantage I think

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Hogwash  
Earlier this year

Well written Jack.

It could be easy to show bias but when you consider Brisbane and Adelaide's closing stretch you can see why Brisbane are favoured for fourth spot.

Great potential semi matchups in Melbourne v Brisbane
Perth v Sydney.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

^

I can see a Brisbane vs Sydney finals

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Anon  
Earlier this year

Illawara will be 4th if Jackson and shoot a 3PG.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Brisbane own the split 3-1 against Adelaide, so they will be 4th if they are both tied.

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Hogwash  
Earlier this year

The 3-1 split is not relevant.
Percentage is used to determine placing.

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LV  
Earlier this year

It's been close all season, hard to predict and that might well continue.

Anything could happen.

The top 3 are playing their last few games mostly against each other, as are many of the next 4.

Couldn't have scripted it better.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

LK did this on purpose

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

I think Perth will get number one spot

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Manu Fieldel  
Earlier this year

Likely outcome is Perth beats Sydney in Perth, United splits this round, and United beats Perth in the final game of the season to take minor premiership

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Manu Fieldel  
Earlier this year

United
Perth
Kings
Buzz

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Zodiac  
Earlier this year

I have the Sixers winning only one of our last three games and think we'll finish equal with Brisbane and then they'll go ahead due to the superior percentage.

I've said it before but we've left it too late and needed to do better than 7-4 during the soft middle part of our schedule. That buzzer beating loss to the Bullets at home looks like it will be the difference between the two teams fortunes.

I just wish we had have moved on Deleon earlier than we did we couldn't afford that 3-6 start with this group.

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LV  
Earlier this year

When's Patrick Richard back?

NZ missed him on the weekend. Think they'll lack the firepower to win their last few without him

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Air Delay  
Earlier this year

Well written Jack!
Though you've got the mighty Hawkies losing their last 3 games!

I think they can jag the win in Brissy AND beat NZ at home. They guarded the Wesley-Long combo near perfectly last outing.

So if the Hawks win out, I think they'd get there with 15-13, considering Adelaide may only win one of their games & end up 14-14. Add to that thought that the Bullets will be broken after a loss to the Hawks, doubled down by then losing at Cairns in Loughton's farewell, then they may finish 14-14 too!

NZ are gooooooone. They'll win 2 at best, they're GF was last weekend & they'll be mentally scarred.

So whilst I'm looking through optimistic red & white tinted glasses, I think this scenario is more than likely... In saying all that, if the Hawkies lose one of their games to NZ & the Hawks, Bullets & 6ers all end up 14 & 14, who'll have the best % will decide it.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

The only certainty is Melbourne finishing first.
I just hope they can do it without the refs ruining too many games.

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AD  
Earlier this year

Melbourne can get top spot with 19 if they hold out Perth
Perth would then finish 2nd on 18.
Sydney should also finish on 18, 3rd by percentage. Suckit Drewey.

Brisbane and Adelaide will split 4th on 14 points, with the Bullets sneaking in on the slenderest of %.

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Who wins the East  
Earlier this year

how do you pick this now

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