Jack Toft
Years ago
Final Ladder positions
It's going to be decided in the last game! The current ladder is:
MEL (16/8)
PER (16/9)
SYD (16/9)
ADE (13/12)
BRI (12/13)
ILL (12/13)
NZL (10/14)
CNS (4/21)
The only ladder position locked in is Cairns (8). They play BRI, @MEL, @SYD. All other positions are open and essentially all games impact on the final ladder. Top 3 look locked in and for Adelaide to squeeze in, they would need to win all three games and home Sydney have a massive choke. Even if both teams finish on 16/12, Sydney are +41 on the points scored/against so they would need to basically have 15 point loss games each game. Sydney could go to 4th, but most likely 3rd
4th to 7th positions have the potential to be tied on 14/14 each.
MEL: @SYD, @ADE: CNS, PER
PER: SYD: ADE, @MEL
SYD: MEL, @PER: CNS
ADE: @NZL, MEL: @PER
BRI: ILL, @CNS: NZL
ILL: @BRI, NZL: @NZL
NZL: ADE, @ILL: ILL, @BRI
You would think Sydney might go 1 and 2 to finish 17/11 in 3rd spot.
Perth are most likely to challenge Melbourne for top spot but are likely to finish 2nd. The very last game of the minor round against Melbourne and Perth would be worth spending a weekend in Melbourne to watch.
Adelaide's crunch game will be the away game in New Zealand. They can afford to maybe drop 1, but need to go 3/3 to secure 4th.
Brisbane v Illawarra is another key clash. Whoever wins that game has advantage.
New Zealand are the complete smokies for the 4th. Knock off the Sixers, then back a quick trip to Wollongong. Then next week extra, repeat. Knock off Hawks at home, then a dagger to Brisbane. Cairns last game with Loughton retiring should be a sell out and Brisbane might need to play out of their skins to get a W.
Yep, at this stage, all games are must win games and I think the only real ladder spots locked in are;
1. MEL
2. PER
3. SYD
8. CNS
I think the most likely way the cards fall are
ADE: (14/14)
BRI: (14/14)
NZL: (13/15)
ILL: (12/16)
With PF/PA ADE are +9 and BRI are +17, so ADE needs a big +20 win if they get 2 losses and hope BRI gets a couple of tight wins to sneak into the 4.
Sorry Adelaide, I think the final table is most likely to be:
1. MEL
2. PER
3. SYD
4 BRI (on %)
5. ADE
6. NZL
7. ILL
8. CNS
