KET:
"If Canada somehow won by 8pts over Lithuania and Lithuania beat Australia by 12pts, what would happen?"
Lithuania -8, +12 = +4
Aus -12, +16 = +4
Canada -16, +8 = -8
Lithuania/Aus split on head to head.
"Same scenario but Lith beat Oz by 18 points, what would happen?"
Lithuania -8, +18 = +10
Aus -18, +16 = -2
Canada -16, +8 = -8
We're pretty safely top-2 unless the margins in both the Canada/Lithuania and Lithuania/Aus game are big. I.e., Canada beats Lithuania by 18, Lithuania beats us by 18. Canada finish +2, Lithuania finish 0, we finish -2. If Canada only beats Lithuania by 2, they are still -14 and we're still +16. So we'd have to lose by 31.