Jack Toft
Two years ago

2019/20 ladder predictions (after R2)

OK, so a month ago there was a post regarding final ladder positions. It's still early and we haven't seen NZ play yet, but there's been a few good games.

A month ago, the average ladder prediction was (average ladder position from posters)[Sportsbet odds]:

1. Melbourne (1.88) [$3.00]
2. Kings (3.13) [$6.00]
3. Perth (3.38) [$5.50]
4. Brisbane (4.43) [$8.00]
5. Breakers (5.00) [$15.00]
6. Adelaide (5.71) [$15.00]
7. Illawarra (5.88) [$8.00]
8. SEM (6.63) [$9.50]
9. Cairns (8.25) [$36.00]

So, are people happy with those ladder predictions? Who should be higher? Who should be lower? Is anyone willing to drop $100 on a SEM v Perth GF series?

Topic #46058 | Report this topic

Two years ago

1. Sydney
2. Melbourne
3. Perth
4. Brisbane
5. SEM
6. NZ
7. Illawarra
8. Cairns
9. Adelaide

Syd/Mel are top tier
Perh/Brisbane/SEM will be awfully close - these are the teams "to watch", every. game. matters.

NZ yet to see, hard to gauge.

Illawarra are a step below.

Cairns and Adelaide are out of it.

Adelaide would need a Moore replacement or Motum signing just to be competitive with the top 5, but that simply will not occur and even if it did, it would occur too late.

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Two years ago

1) Melbourne
2) Sydney
3) Perth
4) SEM
5) Adelaide
6) NZ
7) Brisbane
8) Illawarra
9) Cairns

I am only 'confident' about the top three though, but even then Melbourne 0-2 whilst Sydney is 2-0 gives Sydney a good headstart.

A lot depends on injuries / recoveries and player movement.

If Prather, Barlow and Goulding come back to full health then Melborne just edges Sydney out.

If Didi is a star then Sydney could overtake United.

If SEM / Brisbane / Adelaide find upgrades on imports not named Wesley, Patterson and Griffin they could surprise some people.

I wouldn't 100% count out Cairns either, they have a damn good point guardjust need more and 4 full quarters from everyone else.

Reply #767783 | Report this post

Two years ago

Jack where have you been?
This forum is getting inundated with fools like Dave, Nostralballmus, Dazz and Perthworld.

Please post more often Jack


Reply #767784 | Report this post

Two years ago

Only two weeks in, and in my mind I've already written off Cairns, Illy, Adelaide and NZ from playoffs calculation. NZ hasnt even played! Heh.

Like a bunch of other, genuinely feel it's 5 teams battling for 4 playoff spots.

Honestly hope some of the lessers rise up and give the big dogs a solid run for their money. Melo and the Hawkies making the top 4 would be a perfect scenario in terms of league promotion, but that's wishful thinking.

Reply #767786 | Report this post

Two years ago

United must be the first team to go 0-2 and remain title favourites.

Reply #767787 | Report this post

Two years ago

Perth looking good for their tenth title.

Reply #767790 | Report this post

Jack Toft  
Two years ago

"Jack where have you been?"

Sorry I will post more, I have actually been out of the country for about 8 weeks out of the last 18!

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Two years ago

Welcome back

Reply #767793 | Report this post

Two years ago


Reply #767795 | Report this post

Two years ago



The rest with the best of the trash landing 4th as per last season.

Reply #767797 | Report this post

Two years ago

I can't remember my pre-season ladder projection but Cairns still look a shoe in for the spoon, Hawks have gotten off to a rough start I had them making the playoffs and United despite starting 0-2 with all their injuries are still the title favourites for mine. Sixers should challenge for the playoffs now with Randle.

Reply #767798 | Report this post

Two years ago

Melbourne are still top 3 despite their start. With Perth and Sydney.

SEM and Brisbane are next with NZ maybe just behind.
Illawarra and Adelaide will duel for 7th spot.
Cairns are last.

SEM are the dark horse team imo either good enough to challenge the big 3 or fall back in the pack.

Reply #767800 | Report this post

Two years ago

1 Sydney
2 Melbourne
3 Perth
4 Southeast Melbourne
5 Brisbane
6 Adelaide
7 New Zealand
8 Cairns
9 Illawarra

Reply #767825 | Report this post

Two years ago

Ill and Cairns play tonight. Battle of the cellar dwellers. Tonihgt.
Bottom already decided in Round 2.

2nd best competition in the world my arse.

Reply #767827 | Report this post

Two years ago

Because the NBA is well known for every team being in playoff contention deep into the season....

Reply #767828 | Report this post

Two years ago

What is clear after round 2, is nothing is really clear at all...

South East Melbourne are punching above their weight, doing very well early on, but can they continue to play at this level is the question.

Nothing in it between Melbourne, Perth and Sydney early on and everyone else is around about, but as we know team dynamics can change so much within a week.

The games have been entertaining though, great to see so many talented young Australians coming back and playing in our NBL!

Reply #767829 | Report this post

Two years ago

1 Sydney
2 Perth
3 Melbourne
4/5 Southeast Melbourne
4/5 Brisbane
6 New Zealand
7 Adelaide
8 Cairns
9 Illawarra

The only interest now is who will get 4th and 5th. SEM or Brisbane
Feel sorry for the Community Clubs and worry for there futures.

Reply #767860 | Report this post

The Ibek-Way  
Two years ago

"The only interest now is who will get 4th and 5th. SEM or Brisbane
Feel sorry for the Community Clubs and worry for there futures."

Don't worry, it's all under control with a Tasmania team entering the competition next year. Because with the population of that island they will definitely be a big money club and not filter down to the bottom with NZ and Adelaide...

I get there will always be cashed up clubs that are just stronger like what we see in the NBA but in a country like Australia, with only 4 major cities (Mel, Syd, Per, Bne), this just isn't viable, a league with only 4-5 viable teams and trash to play against won't work

Reply #767868 | Report this post

Two years ago

You're right. How long can Cairns for instance survive as being not a genuine shot for a playoff position and acting as a feeder club for anyone they manage to pick that's good?

In the NBA, at least they have an NBA draft which attempts to refresh the contenders, albeit players leveraging their club by saying "i want out and won't go to anyone but xx" is a cause for concern.

I don't think LK putting money in is enough to make these teams competitive, there's a real dilemma of sustainable competitive league vs big money clubs bringing in top talent to make the NBL a high quality league.

I'm not sure what the perfect balance is or the fix, however i'd hope that this is front of mind for the NBL and clubs, who are as far as I am aware, very consultative (a good thing!).

Reply #767872 | Report this post

Two years ago

We will no more about Sydney this weekend after the NZ home and away. Still Perth and Melbourne for me. Bogut looks to be carrying an injury, and though he has a lot of knockers he's crucial to kings premiership hopes.

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Two years ago

1. Sydney - Tate looks good. If Louzada fulfils his potential and Bogut stays injury free, they are the team to beat.
2. Melbourne - 0-2 start but they'll be fine with the deepest roster in the league. Both Long and Trimble need to lift to carry more of the load while Prather, Goulding and Barlow are out.
3. Perth - Not as deep as in the past due to Martin and Wagstaff getting old but they still have plenty of firepower in the starting 5.


4. New Zealand
5. SE Melbourne
6. Adelaide
7. Brisbane
8. Illawarra


9. Cairns

Reply #767889 | Report this post

Two years ago

Although it is slightly outside the original topic, when we ask the question about how important a ladder position is, how teams can survive if they are not playing finals and all of this rhetoric about teams falling over every season, it kind of does my head in I'm afraid!

We have a national league, players can be picked up from everywhere, so I do tend to agree that we need to look at some form of draft, something to limit the impact of financial power clubs and give everyone the opportunity to climb the ladder and build a strong team.

Until that happens, get over it, only one team can win the league, everyone else is satisfying their fans and sponsors with some home wins, hopefully..........

Reply #767896 | Report this post

Manu Fieldel  
Two years ago

Jack's list is pretty spot on imo but I'd swap Sydney and Melbourne, and Adelaide and SEM.

Kay and Cotton are both in career-best touch, but I wouldn't guarantee Perth a playoff spot.

One shaky af opener and one good strong win, both at home. They started last season like a house on fire then completely crumbled, like a house on fire, when their stretch of road games started. There are still questions about Perth. One thing I do like about them is mob boss Paul Woolpert back on the sidelines.

Sydney and Melbourne are the only two I'm locking in atm. Should be a three-way fight between Breakers, Perth and Buzzas for spots 3 and 4. Breakers have the most potential of those three teams

Reply #767909 | Report this post

The Ibek-Way  
Two years ago

Is a draft really going to fix it though? As it stands, the smaller clubs tend to get their pick of the best talent. It's only when they show real improvement that the money clubs swoop in flashing cash. Most of the younger Aussie stars in the league started at a small club and got picked up by big clubs after developing (Mccarron, Kay, Goulding, Gliddon, Sobey, Creek)

Reply #767921 | Report this post

Two years ago

Manu Fiedel, you wrote, "Jack's list is pretty spot on imo..", then tore apart Jack's list over the next 4 paragraphs. Which part was "spot on"?

Reply #767926 | Report this post

Two years ago

Cairns has long survived as they are one of the few profitable teams in the league.

As long as they get their New Years Eve game they're happy, that's their equivalent of winning a Championship.

Reply #767928 | Report this post

Two years ago

I think the 36ers losing Creek/Sobey is more to do with management then money issues

Reply #767948 | Report this post

Two years ago

"There are still questions about Perth"

Such as?

Reply #767952 | Report this post

Two years ago

I think the 36ers losing Creek/Sobey is more to do with management then money issues

Creek was leaving for the NBA or Euroleague, not because he was p!ssed off at the front office.

Reply #767954 | Report this post

Two years ago

Yes but they lost him for good, due to their poor management.

Reply #767955 | Report this post

Two years ago


Reply #767956 | Report this post

Two years ago

I'd say that only Sydney and Perth are certainties for the finals - anyone below them could beat anyone else, and even Illawarra could avoid coming last.

I reckon it will finish

Sadly, I think Perth have the focus, experience, home-court advantage and mongrel to win it all. (Not to mention great players under pressure like Cotton and White.)

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Two years ago


Reply #783153 | Report this post

Two years ago

How opinions have changed in the course of a mere two months :)

Reply #783154 | Report this post

Two years ago

i said back when that Perth hadn't improved as much as Sydney and MU.
Whilst true, we've had a good coach and so far a reasonable run with injuries.
Prather never really made it on the court, otherwise they might have been in a much stronger position.
Hawks and Snakes the big surprises.

Reply #783181 | Report this post

Sydney and Perth where they are expected to be.
United doing everything possible to fall out of the top 4, have put themselves in a pack of six trying to take two spots.
Not surprised Illawarra are last they are shit.
Cairns are the dark horses ( no pun intended) not only can they make playoffs they can give Sydney or Perth a fair shake if they get there.

Reply #783196 | Report this post

Last year

Obviously SYD are on top of the ladder but here are the leaders based on the following form filters:

Last 15: MEL (by percentage over SYD, CNS & PER)
Last 10: CNS
Last 5: NZB

Reply #783850 | Report this post

Last year

Since it's the beginning of the new year and we need to make everyone feel inclusive here is a bonus one:

2020: ADL

Reply #783852 | Report this post

Only Perth and Sydney are surefire playoff participants at this stage.

Reply #783873 | Report this post


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