Jack Toft
Last year

Crying Foul. Who needs to buy the Refs a Christmas present?

Ok, so I've done this before and let me explain the situation statistically. A team doesn't change its gameplay whether it plays at home or away, so with each game an independent event, the average fouls at home should roughly match the average fouls away. If there is a bias at home court, then the difference in fouls should be what they say in statistics as "significant" So, is anyone getting a blind eye of the refs this season? Despite what people think, I don't think any team is getting favoured by the refs anymore than the others.

Average game: OK so the average game so far this year sees 19.2 fouls to the home team and 20.5 fouls to the away team. The biggest gap to the advantage to the away team was 10 (R6 Brisbane v Sydney 30 to 20 fouls) and the biggest gap to the home team was 14 (R3 Sydney v New Zealand 9 to 23)

So here are the raw stats for fouls (vs their opposition):

Adelaide (H) 21.4 to 22.8 (A) 23.5 to 20.5
Brisbane (H) 21.8 to 18.8 (A) 20.4 to 19.0
Cairns (H) 19.3 to 18.8 (A) 20.5 to 17.2
Illawarra (H) 19.0 to 20.4 (A) 21.7 to 19
Melbourne (H) 20.0 to 22.2 (A) 23.2 to 20.2
New Zealand (H) 20.8 to 18.5 (A) 23.2 to 18.0
Perth (H) 14.7 to 21.2 (A) 15.2 to 19.2
SEM (H) 19.4 to 20.0 (A) 19.0 to 17.5
Sydney (H) 16.8 to 22.2 (A) 18.0 to 21.3

So, what does this all say? Perth are obviously doing something right. Although they are the lowest fouling team at home they are also the lowest fouling team on the road. Brisbane can't take a trick at home being the highest fouling team at home, but foul less on the road.

The Adelaide Refs are calling stuff with the average game in Adelaide having 44.2 fouls, but the average game in Perth having 35.8 fouls. Adelaide play in the highest fouling games, Perth the lowest.

Conclusions? The Perth style of play sees them the lowest fouling team this season and Adelaide's aggressive style sees them foul more. As far as "bias" is concerned, teams get called for more fouls on the road, but Brisbane average an "extra" 2.7 fouls at home more than they should. Perhaps they need to leave a glass of milk out for Santa's reindeers.

Topic #46463 | Report this topic

Last year

If you took out Griffin and apply the average players' amount of fouls, how would that change things? :P

He's collecting them as if they're going out of fashion.

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Last year

Reply #778234 | Report this post

Last year

Who needs to buy Jack Toft a hug?

Reply #778235 | Report this post

Jack Toft  
Last year

Oh, thank you for wanting to give me a hug, you must be as well groomed as the boys you meet on line.

Reply #778257 | Report this post

Last year


Have you adjusted for pace of game? Ie the number of possessions each team plays at would mean that teams who play fast and take more shots, ie Adelaide might have more possessions than Perth who play slower, with less possessions.

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Another Anon  
Last year

Perf got dat home cooking going.

Also, *reindeer

Reply #778270 | Report this post

Jack Toft  
Last year

I had wondered about the foul rate per possession. I wanted to see how everyone stack up before offering too much analysis. I couldn't break it down into areas, but I would love to be able to break it down into defensive half, offensive half and then the offensive key.

You would expect that a team like Adelaide that employs a fast paced run and gun type of game would play in a game where more fouls are called on both teams because of the risk. A fast break player is moving faster so that offers more charging opportunities and the defensive team would give up more blocking and holding fouls to try to slow things down. Adelaide attack the rim too so get a lot of +1's as well as FT's.

Perth play the long game. The average score in the NBL this season is 94.9 HT to 90.5 AT. Perth are 93.2:87.2 at home and 85.2:88.7 on the road. An 8 point drop in scoring on the road. The home scores are slightly lower nett scores which tell me that the possessions are played out close to the full possession (24 sec) Significantly, Perth hold teams to 3.3 less points at home and home teams 6.2 points lower on their home courts. I haven't worked out the 3 shots, but I would expect from what I have seen this season, the "typical" Perth play is to bring the ball up, pass the ball around the perimeter a little bit to create some movement within the key, then drive in, pop in out to the wing, or have an extra pass for a 3 shot, 2.3 sec left on the shot clock. Adelaide are jacking up shots when there's 15 secs left on the possession

Reply #778278 | Report this post

Last year

If you haven't corrected for number of possessions, then I’d suggest any analysis isn’t meaningful.

If team a) has 100 possessions per game compared to team b) who has 80. Then you’d expect games team b) plus in to 4/5th less fouls as they’d have 4/5th less possessions.

Reply #778282 | Report this post

Last year

Looks like Brisbane have the "worst" foul counts at home, whereas Pert have the “best”.

Sounds like crowd pressure to make calls favouring Perth at home. Brisbane seem to have low, uninvolved crowds, who wouldn't make enough noise to pressure the refs.

Reply #778297 | Report this post

Last year

"If you haven't corrected for number of possessions, then I'd suggest any analysis isn’t meaningful."

I think there's still some good stuff in there.

Regardless of pace, I'd expect the difference between fouls for and against, home vs away to vary roughly in proportion to the respective total fouls called. e.g., Adelaide games at home average 44.2 fouls in total and away they average 44.0 fouls. With similar numbers of fouls being called hoem and awaay, I'd expect the foul differential to be similar home and away as well. But Adelaide are +1.4 in the foul count at home vs -3.0 away.

Doing the same with Brisbane, their away games average 1.6 fouls per game less in total. That difference is almost entirely due to Brisbane having 1.4 fewer fouls called on them per game away than at home.

The main reservation I'd have is that there'd currentyly be a material bias in whom each team has played at home vs away. e.g., Cairns have played 4 top four teams at home and only one top four team on the road. That bias is likely to affect these statistics.

The bias will lessen as the year progresses but there'll still be a residual bias at the end of the home and away round, due to the uneven draw this season.

Love your work, Jack.

Reply #778303 | Report this post

Last year

Stats can only tell you so much - some teams would be officiated more during Aylen and Mayberry's menstrual cycles than others.

Reply #778322 | Report this post

Last year

A lot depends on if Aylens tongue ring was in or not the night before

Reply #778326 | Report this post

Last year

Perthworld has nailed it - you should see the foul counts from those 2 counts on a full moon bleeder . Through the counts .

Reply #778455 | Report this post

Mayberry has to be the most egotistical, vindictive, camera craving ref this league has ever seen. He takes things personally and LOVES Melbourne United. Mayberry + Melbourne home game = Melbourne win.

Reply #778458 | Report this post

Last year

Vindictive? Settle down, he's a pretty fair ref. He might seem to go overboard with the reviews but those are the rules of the league so he's only doing his job.

Reply #778460 | Report this post

Last year

#460 do not let reality get in the way of a good Mayberry bashing. Dude is in his 3rd year of being full time. If he was shit he'd get the sack. Probably shows the difference between those who know and those who have an emotional reaction to the fact he blows his whistle unlike half the panel. But let’s get rid of one of our only 3 rated crew chiefs. Such a brilliant idea.

Reply #778462 | Report this post

Last year

All the Australian refs suck plain and simple both teams have to play with them and adjust

Reply #778591 | Report this post


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