Anonymous
Years ago
We thought United would struggle to recover from their choke, but they did.
I now think Sydney will struggle to recover from that game 2 smashing but could they prove us wrong?
It depends which Sydney turns up. They have been very hot and cold since December. Coaches have worked them out. Melbourne clearly favourites.
LV
Years ago
My first thought is this is a 50/50 proposition
United has form, and has been clearly superior for 73 of 80 minutes in this series.
Ili is the kryptonite to Superman Casper.
But, Sydney will be at home. What percentage of teams in NBL win a deciding game at home?
Plus there's the stat Gaze kept discussing- 21 of 22
How many of those 21 were outscored by 39 over the first two games
Perthworld
Years ago
Which ties into this stat:
NBLfacts @nblfacts
No team in NBL history has ever lost a playoff game by as many as the Kings did tonight and recovered to win the series.
LV
Years ago
If Sydney makes lineup changes it could make a big difference. Just like United's recent changes have. David Andersen's advice was gold- it's nil all right now.
I'd start with Newley or Didi into the starting 5 for Cooks or Lisch, to get the offense going.
Cooks plays off others, like McCarron and Barlow do for United. He's passive. Lisch is working his way back and hasn't scored more than 2 field goals in any of the last 5 games since his return. They need another guy who can push the ball, attack the rim, apply scoreboard pressure.
I wouldn't make too many changes with only 3 days between games. But, think outside the box. Only Casper and Tate should be considered untouchable for starting spots on Thursday.
Cooks is not a three man, struggling to mark outside players, Newley and didi should start. Cooks should rotate between the 4 and the 5. Kickett got no chance on Long. While Moller is more 3/4 his defence might be worth trying on Long. Tate, Moller a Cooks might be able to slow the Melbourne juggernaut down but scoring could be a problem. Melbourne peaking at right time of season.
StatsMan
Years ago
I agree with the last comment. Cooks and Moller are totally different propositions. Cooks plays significantly closer to the basket which is why he gets so many rebounds, where as Moller guards closer to the three point line and was actually guarding the dominant ball handler positions 1-4 at the start of the season. This is why I think it is critical he play at least 20 mins in game three. His issue is that he hasn't been hitting the 3 enough to really space the floor on offence. Could be worth the punt though as you are more likely to get transition baskets when he is on the floor. He assisted Cooks for the first Sydney basket when Melbourne went on that massive run, no surprise there.
Realistically either Bruce or Lisch need to play less minutes. If neither is getting a lot of assists then the team is better with a more athletic and longer wingspan player on the court. Lisch is coming back from injury and a proven performer, and Bruce played well over the season. However I think Bruce has come off a cliff in the last few weeks and his possessions are too long and the ball isn’t moving well, hence he has less assists than earlier in the season.
My rotations (main)
1 Casper Ware/Shaun Bruce
2 Didi/Lisch
3 Newley/Moller
4 Tate / Cooks / Moller
5 Bogut / Kickert / Cooks
Don’t play Cooks at the 3 ever, Sydney get punished on the perimeter.
Small ball death line up / could be used for run and gun.
1. Ware
2. Didi
3. Moller
4. Tate
5. Cook
Looking forward to the game.
The Kings might be one of the most fraudulent one seeds in recent memory. Started the season 11-1, they are 10-8 since. Weaver's lack of adjustments and stubbornness to change are killing this group. He's been comprehensively outcoached by Vickerman and his constant bleating about the refs in his press conferences is both tiresome and says he is a man bereft of ideas. I think Melbourne gets game 3 comfortably.
"Started the season 11-1, they are 10-8 since"
Includes a loss to Illawarra and a lucky overtime win against SEM.
Could easily have been 9-9 after their fast start.
It's amazing that the slide started the first week Moller went down. Some players do things that you don’t get stats for, the pass before the assist is often as important as the assist, box outs etc.
kings can still do this but it might take a miracle.
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